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BCREA 2012 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

January 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Vancouver, BC – January 27, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

“Modest economic growth at home and abroad is expected to limit growth in consumer demand both this year and in 2013,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 2.1 per cent from 76,817 units in 2011 to 78,400 units this year, increasing a further 2.7 per cent to 80,500 units in 2013. The 15-year average is 79,000 unit sales. A record 106,310 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

“While European sovereign debt concerns and a sluggish US economy will continue to impact consumer confidence, strong demand in the bond market is expected to keep mortgage interest rates at or near record lows for most of 2012,” added Muir.

Home prices in most BC markets are forecast to experience little change over the next 24 months as the supply of homes for sale more closely matches consumer demand. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to edge down 2.2 per cent to $548,500 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2013, albeit increasing 0.8 per cent to $553,000.

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast Update, click here.

Filed Under: February 2012

Canadian Retail Sales – January 24, 2012

January 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW - Canadian Retail Sales - January 24, 2012

Canadian retail sales rose for the fourth consecutive month in November, posting an increase of 0.3 per cent. The increase in sales was broad based with 7 out of 11 sectors reporting higher sales.  In volume terms, retail sales rose 0.5 per cent, higher than the increase in nominal sales due to price discounts and incentives offered by retailers in the holiday shopping season. Today’s retail sales report puts our tracking estimate of fourth quarter Canadian GDP growth at about 2 per cent.

BC retail sales grew at 0.3 per cent monthly pace in November, and 2.8 per cent compared to November 2010.  Despite the last two months of relatively strong growth, retail sales in BC  significantly underperformed in 2011, growing at just a 2 per cent pace due to weak labour market conditions and highly indebted households.

For more information, please contact:  Gino Pezzani

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Housing Starts & Canadian Inflation – January 2012

January 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - January 17, 2012

For the 11th consecutive meeting, the Bank of Canada opted to hold its target overnight rate at 1 per cent. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the global economic outlook is deteriorating, largely due to an expected deep and prolonged recession in Europe. While the Bank expects the Euro-crisis to be contained, it will impact the Canadian economy this year, and the Bank is forecasting GDP growth of just 2 per cent in 2012. On inflation, the Bank anticipates that both total and core inflation will moderate this year before rising to 2 per cent by the third quarter of 2013.

Our view of the economy is largely in-line with the Bank of Canada, indeed our forecast for economic growth is almost identical. The Canadian economy is likely to face a number of headwinds in 2012, both externally from the Euro-debt saga and an uncertain US economy, and internally as traditional sources of growth begin to fade. Indeed, it is difficult to see where economic growth will come from in 2012 if, as expected, Canadian consumption slows , Governments begin address fiscal gaps and residential construction moderates. This leaves private business investment to drive the economy, but given a murky demand outlook, it is far from certain that businesses will be in the mood to take on significant new projects.   Given the extent of downside risks to the Canadian economy, it is unlikely that the Bank of Canada will move on interest rates in 2012. Moreover, long-term rates will remain at historically low levels until confidence is restored in the sovereign debt of Europe.

Canadian Manufacturing and US Housing Starts – January 19, 2012

Canadian manufacturing sales bounced 2 per cent higher in November, following an 0.8 per cent monthly decline in October. The gains were driven by higher sales in the petroleum and coal products industries along with strength in the auto sector. Total manufacturing sales were 1.7 per cent higher in volume terms.  Higher sales were reported in 80 per cent of the manufacturing sectors surveyed. Sales by BC manufacturing firms grew 0.9 per cent month over month in November and were almost 6 per cent higher than in November 2010.

South of the border, US housing starts (a key bellwether for BC’s forestry sector) fell 4.1 per cent in December, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units. However, the pace of housing starts in the fourth quarter of 2011 represented a post-recession high, a strong signal that US home construction should continue to improve in 2012.

Canadian Inflation - January 20, 2012

Canadian CPI inflation registered 2.3 per cent (year-over-year) in December, a 0.6 point decline from November. The drop in inflation last month was largely due to slow growth in prices for gasoline, food products, and automobiles.  The Bank of Canada’s core inflation measure, which excludes food and energy prices, rose at a rate of 1.9 per cent in December from 2.1 per cent in November. Consumer prices in BC were just 1.7 per cent in December (year-over-year).

Slack in the Canadian economy and moderating global commodity prices are likely to ensure that both core and total CPI inflation remain close to or below the Bank of Canada’s 2 per cent inflation target over the next 12 months. Without any serious inflationary pressure, the Bank of Canada will opt to keep the current considerable level of monetary stimulus in place for the foreseeable future.

For more information, please contact:  Gino Pezzani

Filed Under: January 2012 Newsletter

Bank of Canada seen on hold until 2013

January 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

By Claire Sibonney

TORONTO (Reuters) – A deteriorating European economy and weak global growth will keep the Bank of Canada from raising rates for at least another year, though an interest rate cut looks highly unlikely, according to a Reuters survey.

The Reuters poll of 41 economists and strategists released on Tuesday showed the median forecast for the next interest rate hike was pushed back by three months to the first quarter of 2013 from the fourth quarter of 2012 projected in a November poll. The Bank of Canada’s target for the overnight rate – its main policy rate – has been at 1 percent for more than a year.

“The longer we spend struggling the Europeans coming to some cohesive policy solution, the worse the economic drag will be,” said David Tulk, chief Canada macro strategist at TD Securities.

“You get the sense that growth I think is likely to remain lower for longer, just like interest rates.”

Investors in the first quarter of 2012 are expected to focus on the heavy supply of euro zone debt coming due, with fears about a possible lack of demand at auctions. Italian and Spanish bond sales in particular are viewed as the next big tests.

Some Canadian economic data has also been worrisome. A Bank of Canada business survey on Monday showed an increasing number of firms are pessimistic about the rate of sales growth, further reducing pressure for the central bank to take interest rates higher.

The most recent domestic jobs report also disappointed, reversing a trend that saw Canada outperform the United States both during and after the global financial crisis.

Monthly employment data on Friday showed Canada missed forecasts while the U.S. beat them. This gives the Bank of Canada even less impetus to tighten policy before the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has said it expects to keep its key interest rate near zero through mid-2013.

But many analysts expect an even longer pause, and bet the Fed’s next move will be to stimulate the economy, rather than tighten monetary policy.

“If the Fed comes out with its published interest rate forecast at the end of the month and says the consensus points to an even longer hold than the middle of 2013 then that could handicap the Bank of Canada to an even greater extent,” said Derek Holt, vice president of economics at Scotia Capital.

FEW SEE RATE CUT AHEAD

Yet many analysts say the case for an interest rate cut is difficult. Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly warned about the dangers of Canadians borrowing too much as a result of very low interest rates. Data last month showed the level of household debt swelled to another record high in the third quarter.

“A cut in the policy rate anytime in 2012 is extremely unlikely. It would take a global recession of 2008 proportions for the BoC to even consider cutting policy rates,” said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities in Montreal. “In our view, 1.00 percent is the new, effective, zero-bound.”

Of the contributors, 32 see a rate hike happening after the second quarter of 2012. Five forecasters – BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Goldman Sachs, IFR Markets and ING Financial – predicted a rate cut across the forecast horizon, up from only three forecasters in the last poll. All five expect the cut by mid-2012.

The possibility of an ease has been anticipated in overnight index swaps for some time, though the timing has been pushed out.

Forecasts for official interest rates at the end of 2012 also dropped from the previous poll – with the median target declining to 1 percent, from 1.25 percent in November – indicating one less rate increase next year than was previously assumed.

Interest rate expectations for the four quarters of 2012 have been downgraded continuously in all nine global Reuters polls conducted since last January, with the target for the first quarter of 2012 revised down to 1 percent from 2.25 percent.

The poll showed a 96 percent probability there won’t be a change in rates at the next policy announcement on Jan 17.

All of the contributors in the survey – barring ING Financial which is forecasting a rate cut – are expecting the BoC to keep rates unchanged next week.

(Polling and analysis by Bangalore polling unit; Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson)

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Little Touch Ups That Make A Big Difference

January 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

You are probably already aware of the major things you need to do around your home to get it ready for sale. These include getting rid of clutter, doing minor repairs, and making everything clean and tidy so every room is as much of a showcase as possible.

But there are a myriad of little touch ups you can do that you may not have thought of before… touch ups that can make a big difference in how attractive your home looks to potential buyers.

Here are just a few:

  • Paint or replace the mailbox.
  • Add a couple of flowering plants to key areas, such as the dining room, living room, and just outside the front door.
  • Patch up any minor cracks in the driveway and walkways. (If there is a major crack, consider getting it repaired by a professional.)
  • Put out the welcome mat. Literally! And if it’s not clean and completely free of stains, replace it.
  • If you have a stainless steel kitchen sink, clean it using a special stainless steel cleaner and brightener. The effect will be dramatic; the sink will look like new.
  • Use a special spot cleaner to lift any stains from carpeted areas.
  • Replace plain or out-of-style light fixtures in the main areas of your home, such as the hallway and living room. Without spending a fortune, you can make a big difference in how these areas look.
  • If your kitchen cabinetry is old, consider replacing the hardware on the doors and drawers. That, along with some touch-up paint or varnish on worn areas, can make your older kitchen look young again.

The great thing about these ideas is that they don’t cost much to implement, and you can probably do most of them in less than a day.

Want more tips on making your home appealing to buyers?

Contact me today.

 

Plan Your Move Well In Advance

One of the most common mistakes made by home buyers and sellers is not arranging for moving day well in advance.

Even if you’ve just put your property on the market, or are only in the beginning stages of shopping for a new home, you should start planning for moving day now. If you don’t, you might find yourself scrambling to make arrangements, which can be – to put it mildly – stressful.

Start now by researching moving and storage companies and making a short list. You should also find economical sources of boxes, bubble wrap and other packaging materials you may need.

If you plan to do some or all of the move yourself, don’t assume that uncle Ned is going to help you. Get rock solid commitments from any family or friends who have volunteered to be there on moving day.

Filed Under: January 2012 Newsletter, Tips for Sellers

Five Simple Things You Need To Know To Make The Home Buying Process Easier

January 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

In reality, there are only five things you need to know and do to make your home buying experience as simple as possible.

1.  Get pre-approved for your mortgage.

If possible, get “pre-approved” for a loan in the amount you’re willing to borrow, not just “pre-qualified”.

With this pre-approval, you’re in a stronger position to buy a home when you’re ready – rather than finding your dream home, only to lose it to another buyer because you were waiting on the approval.

2.  Find a great real estate consultant.

Once you’ve decided to buy a home, find a great real estate consultant.  What you’re looking for is a Buyer’s Agent. This means that the consultant represents YOU as the buyer, rather than the person selling the home.

They will have YOUR best interests at heart.  Really good consultants know their markets, and will help you find the best match for your needs and wants.

They can also recommend mortgage brokers with whom they’ve worked in the past.

3.  Look before you leap.

Drive around the neighborhood at different times of day.  Get out and walk around and chat with neighbors.  Some people like friendly neighbors, others think of them as nosy.

Drive to the local grocery store, laundry, anywhere that you frequent.

Visit nearby schools and see for yourself how the kids behave and how the grounds look.  The point is to see if this is really the type of neighborhood you want to live in BEFORE you make an offer.

4.  Be prepared.

Make sure your contract has reasonable contingencies included to protect you as a buyer.  Reasonable can be things like approval by a home inspector.

For the long-term investment, make sure that you buy homeowner’s insurance, and upgrade it as the value of your new home and its contents increase.

5.  Be reasonable.

No home will be without flaws.  Many times it’s these flaws that lend character to older homes, but nonetheless, it will take SOME work to personalize any home.

Preparing yourself with these five simple things – mortgage pre-approval, a great real estate consultant, getting to know the neighborhood, protecting yourself, and being reasonable – will help make the home buying process easier for you and your family.

 

Filed Under: January 2012 Newsletter, Tips for Buyers

Preparing a Bathroom for Touring Potential Buyers

January 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

When a house is on the market, it becomes less the owner’s home and more of a display item.  Nowhere is this more important to remember than in the bathroom.  Buyers don’t want to see the seller’s personal hygiene items, moldy remnants of steamy showers or a soap scum-covered collection of empty shampoo bottles.  They want to be confident that this most private of rooms is well maintained and sanitized.  The trick to make the area seem less, well…private.

Preparing a bathroom for touring potential buyers is a four step process:  clean, repair, sanitize and spruce.

Every surface that can hold something – vanity, toilet tank, shower window, floor – should be divested of as many objects as possible.  The same thing applies for anything that can be opened – medicine cabinet, drawers, and linen closets.

Cleaning begins with throwing out any expired medication, make-up that hasn’t been used in a year, nearly empty containers, and any other useless objects found while emptying cabinets and drawers.

The process continues with wiping each shelf, drawer, and cabinet door.  When everything is out from under the sink, take the time to check the faucets and pipes for leaks.

If faucets leak, washers probably need to be changed.  In some cases, the faucets may be corroded and need to be replaced.  If this is the case, opt for an inexpensive and very plain model.  Fill the sink with water.  If it drains from the sink slowly, pour in some drain clog remover and see if this helps.  If not, call a plumber.  When everything is clean and in working condition, neatly return items to the cabinet under the sink, using containers for small objects like bath toys, sponges or cleaners.

While the top of the toilet tank is bare, lift up the top and check the water level and condition of the inner mechanisms.  Flush the toilet.  Does the water refill to the correct level?  Does the water shut off when it reaches this level?  If not, then the inside mechanism with the seat and stopper at the bottom of the tank will need to be replaced.

This is quite easy and inexpensive to do yourself.  Parts are available at your local hardware or home improvement store.

Folks will notice a filthy shower.  So, spend some time here.  Remove personal items – cleanser, shampoo and conditioner, shave cream, razor, body sponges – from the shower/tub area.

Discard items that are unnecessary and store the rest under the sink.  Test the faucets and showerhead.  Do the faucets turn off all the way?  If not, change the washers.  Is the water spraying freely from the showerhead?  No?  Then remove it and check to see if it’s clogged.  If it still doesn’t work properly after cleaning, replace it.

Carefully examine tiles and the tub.  Does the tub have chips and discolouration?  It may need to be resurfaced or replaced.

How do the tiles look?  Any loose pieces or chips?  Are there cracks in the grout?  Scrub the bathtub, tiles and grout until they are mold and mildew free.  Regrout gaps between tiles.  Scrape and replace discolored caulking.

When the shower and bathtub have been overhauled, top off your repairs with a new, crisp shower curtain or liner in a neutral colour.

Take a good look at the ceiling and walls.  Do you see any mold, mildew, fingerprints or grime?  If so, scrub it with bleach.  Cracking or curling paint should be scraped and repainted in a neutral colour.

A rule of thumb:  Place only three items on the vanity area.  Many real estate experts suggest these include potpourri, a new or clean, filled soap dispenser, and a plant.  It’s a good idea to keep the toilet tank top cleared as prospective buyers and inspectors may want to peek inside it.

After the big clean-up and repair job in the bathroom, it’s important to maintain the fresh smell and appearance each day the house is on the market.  The space should be kept uncluttered, clean and sanitized.  It should reflect well on the house of which it is a part and offer few glimpses of the personalities who currently live there.

At this point, a homeowner enters the sprucing-up stage.  After cleaning every nook and cranny in the bathroom, it’s time to add the finishing touches.  All dirty towels and wash cloths, bath mats and robes should be removed.  A clean set of towels should be displayed before the house is shown.  Trash baskets should be emptied and floors wiped daily.  All personal grooming items – tooth brushes, make-up, combs and brushes, hair dryers, perfume, etc. – should be tucked away, preferably in a container and stored in a drawer or cabinet.

 

Filed Under: January 2012 Newsletter, Tips for Sellers

Carbon Monoxide: What You Need to Know

January 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Carbon monoxide (CO) is an odorless, colorless and toxic gas. Because it is impossible to see, taste or smell the toxic fumes, CO can make you very sick, or even kill you before you are aware it is in your home.  It is produced when fuels such as wood, propane, oil, natural gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel, coal or charcoal do not burn properly.

Health effects associated with Carbon Monoxide

CO can have a significant impact on human health. It enters the bloodstream through the lungs and forms carboxyhemoglobin, a compound that inhibits the blood’s capacity to carry oxygen to organs and tissues. Persons with heart disease are especially sensitive to CO poisoning. Infants, elderly persons, and individuals with respiratory diseases are also particularly sensitive. CO can affect healthy individuals, impairing exercise capacity, visual perception, manual dexterity, learning functions, and ability to perform complex tasks.

A person exposed to CO at low concentrations may display flue-like symptoms, such as headaches, nausea, fatigue, dizziness, downiness, burning eyes, confusion and unconsciousness. In server cases, prolonged exposure to CO could result in death. If any one in your home experiences symptoms of carbon monoxide poisoning, leave your home immediately, seek medical help and call 911 or your local fire department.

How to protect yourself

Proper installation, inspection and maintenance of fuel-burning equipment is your first line of defence against harmful releases of CO in your home. Have your fuel-burning equipment checked regularly by a licensed heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) contractor. As a second line of defence, install one or more CO alarms.

Other steps to reduce exposure to Carbon Monoxide in your home:

  • Keep gas appliances properly adjusted.
  • Consider purchasing a vented space heater when replacing an unvented one.
  • Use proper fuel in kerosene space heaters.
  • Install and use an exhaust fan vented to outdoors over gas stoves.
  • Open flues when fireplaces are in use.
  • Choose properly sized wood stoves that are certified to meet EPA emission standards. Make certain that doors on all wood stoves fit tightly.
  • Have a trained professional inspect, clean, and tune-up central heating systems (furnaces, flues, and chimneys) annually. Repair any leaks promptly.
  • Do not idle the car inside garage.

Additional ventilation can be used as a temporary measure when high levels of CO are expected for short periods of time.

Filed Under: January 2012 Newsletter

Hybrid mortgages – Have You Considered?

January 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Hybrid mortgages – also known as 50/50 mortgage products – include an equal mix of fixed-rate and variable-rate components within your single mortgage. This means you get the best of both worlds – the security of fixed repayments with the flexibility of a variable rate.

Although there was a time in recent years when mortgage experts considered a variable rate mortgage as the obvious choice to save mortgage consumers money over the long term, with fixed rates remaining near historic lows, a 50/50 mortgage may be a great alternative for you.

In essence, since it’s extremely difficult to accurately predict rates over the long term, a 50/50 mortgage offers interest rate diversification, which can help reduce your level of risk.

If you opt for the Dominion Lending Centres 50/50 Balanced Mortgage, half of your mortgage is locked into a five-year fixed rate and half is at a five-year variable rate. You can lock in your variable-rate portion at any time without paying a penalty.

As well, each portion of the 50/50 mortgage operates independently – like two separate mortgages – yet the product is registered as only one collateral charge.

The 50/50 mortgage product is well-suited to a variety of borrowers, including those who:

• Would normally go fully variable but are afraid prime rate is at its bottom

• Aren’t comfortable being locked into a fully fixed rate

• Can’t decide between a fixed or variable mortgage

• Savvy first-time homebuyers

Some features of the 50/50 mortgage include:

• 20% annual lump-sum pre-payment privileges

• 20% annual payment increase ability

• Portability (the option to transfer your existing loan amount to a new property without penalty)

As always, if you have questions about the 50/50 mortgage product and whether it’s right for you, or other mortgage-related questions, I’m here to help!

Maureen Young
Accredited Mortgage and Lease Professional
Dominion Lending Downtown Financial
Phone: 604-805-5888
Fax: 604-904-8608
maureen@maureenyoung.ca
http://www.maureenyoung.ca/

Filed Under: January 2012 Newsletter, Tips for Buyers, Tips for Sellers

City of Hope – A Press Release

January 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment

City experiencing healthy oppotunities

Hope and outlying areas are experiencing a healthy real estate market, new innovative planning initiatives, new recreational trail development in our tourism sector, and growing interest in mining opportunities.

In real estate, 57 residential properties with an average selling price of $228,144.40 sold in the Hope area in the first half of 2011, compared to 42 residential properties with an average selling price of $259,473.81 in the first half of 2010 (provided by Andy Tepasse from Nyda Realty in Hope).

Building activity (all sectors) for Q1 is valued at $2,959,800 compared to $1,420,500 for Q1 2010. The bulk of the rise is due to commercial renovations; however residential renovations in 2011 are over double that of 2010 indicating strong local growth.

The District of Hope has embarked on a zoning bylaw review process, with the intent of modernizing and updating the current zoning bylaw to better serve citizens, businesses, and investors. Advantage Hope, as the economic development agency in Hope, is active in this process. Greater density options, provision for green technology and development, and expanded cottage industry and home occupation uses for Country Residential zones are all being strongly considered.

Hope’s trail inventory continues to grow with increasing recreational demand from Metro Vancouver consumers looking for alternatives to busy venues such as Whistler and Grouse Mountain. Local governments and local non-profits work closely together to ensure an interconnected trail network consisting of routes suitable for all ability levels. One new trail deserves particular attention: the new HBC (1849) trail was completed in 2010 and is an exciting day or multiday hike with stunning views and historic significance likely to rival the popularity of the West Coast Trail in the future.

Mining has historically been a strong sector in the area, and recent commodity prices have precipitated revived interest in existing mines and known mineral deposits. Advantage Hope maintains strong relationships with mining interests in the region, and looks forward to facilitating the development of these resources in our area.

Investors are attracted to the Hope area by quick and traffic-free access to 4 major highways, proximity to the Metro Vancouver market and the US border, available land at an affordable price, and quality recreational amenities.

Tyler Mattheis is Executive Director of Advantage Hope, Hope’s Economic Development Agency. Interested in business or development opportunities in the Hope area? Contact Advantage Hope: (604) 860 0930 or info@advantagehope.ca.

Filed Under: January 2012 Newsletter
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