CMHC Spring Market Outlook

Highlights From CMHC Spring Market Outlook

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  • „„New home construction will continue at a steady pace during the next eighteen months, with an increase in single-detached home building partly offsetting a decline in multiple-unit starts.
  • „„MLS® sales are expected to maintain levels just shy of the long term average, increasing modestly in 2014 before contracting by a similar amount in 2015.
  • „„Population-based demand will keep purpose-built rental vacancy rates stable at just below two per cent in 2014 and 2015.
  • „„Modest employment and population growth, combined with low mortgage rates, will sustain demand for ownership housing through the forecast horizon.


Steady Pace of Home Building to Continue

Vancouver CMA housing starts are forecast to continue at a steady pace, with a marginal decrease of less than one per cent to 18,600 units in 2014, and edge lower to 18,400 units in 2015 (See Figure 1). This level of homebuilding is in line with the projected level of household growth. Multiple-unit starts are projected to decline moderately this year and next, while single-detached starts will increase in 2014, before diminishing slightly in 2015. Demand for new homes will remain solid through 2015 as the Vancouver area economy is forecast to grow at a pace slightly above the provincial rate. Employment gains and continued population growth are expected to accompany moderate economic expansion. These factors combined with low mortgage rates will drive demand for new homes.

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