Canadian employment grew by 953,000 jobs in June (5.8%, m/m). This, combined with the increase in May, represents 40 per cent of the jobs lost in March and April. The national unemployment rate fell by 1.4 percentage points to 12.3 per cent from the previous month. The employment gains in June were somewhat evenly split between full-time work (488,000) and part-time work (465,000).

Regionally, all provinces reported an increase in employment as all had substantially eased COVID-19 measures. Ontario and Quebec made up two-thirds of the gain. Strong gains were reported in accommodation and food services, and retail, which were industries hardest hit by the pandemic. However, employment levels in these industries are still below pre-COVID levels. In June, employment rose slightly faster among women than men, but on a cumulative basis, men are at 92 per cent of pre-COVID levels, while women are at 89 per cent. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by -8.5% (-1.6 million).

Meanwhile, employment in BC grew by 118,100 jobs (5.4%, m/m) in June, following a gain of 43,000 jobs in the previous month. Gains in the last two months represented 40 per cent of jobs lost in BC in March and April. June's employment gain brought down the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points to 13 per cent. Half of the employment increase was in accommodation and food services (55k), followed by professional services (18k) and retail (16k). This is consistent with the province's gradual reopening. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 10% (-267k) jobs.

This was another good news report, as it appears we continue to be on a slow path to recovery. At the same time, much of the gains were in industries that were waiting to reopen. There are still structural changes that need to work their way through the system, as some individuals who were furloughed may now be permanently unemployed. Also important are consumers' demand for goods and services, which is expected to be hampered by the still 235,000 unemployed individuals in BC.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Most of us aren’t used to working all night, but with many of us working from home, chances are your schedule has changed. Here are some strategies to get into the groove of working a night shift:

• Manage your sleep during the day— not just how long, but how soundly.
• Get rid of all distractions, especially the phone.
• Try to sleep at the same time every day.
• Keep sleeping temperature about 68 degrees.
• Use earplugs to keep noise at bay. You can also muffle intrusive sounds with a fan or “white noise” machine.
• Accept changes in your schedule. Don’t try to maintain your normal routine; keep social events and family outings at times that fit your new work schedule needs.
• Eat light at night and get extra servings of fruits and veggies, cereal, pasta and rice.

Canadian housing starts increased by 8% m/m to 211,681 units in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The gain in June put starts back at pre-pandemic levels. The trend in national housing starts fell to an average of 199,700 units SAAR over the past six months. Housing starts were up in five of 10 provinces with Ontario driving the increase.

In BC, growth in housing starts was flat in June, following a 29% increase in the previous month. Historically speaking, starts in the province are still robust but have been trending downwards since the fall of 2019. Housing starts have shown resilience during the pandemic and in the near future will depend on demand as unemployment levels remain elevated and as government support programs wind down. Meanwhile, building permits for May were up by 4.4% in the province.

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC:

Housing starts in Vancouver were down by 5% m/m in June to 23,577 units SAAR. Multi-units were down by 9%, while singles were up by 26%. Compared to last year in June, housing starts were down by 43%, which marks the third consecutive month of negative year-over-year growth.

In Victoria, housing starts were down by 23% m/m to 2,342 units SAAR. Compared to a year ago in June, housing starts were down by 5%.

In Kelowna, housing starts increased by 61% m/m to 2,858. Starts were up by 1% in the region compared to the same time last year.

Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were up by 18% at 590 units SAAR. Compared to the same time last year, new home construction was down by 25%.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

One day a professor asked his students to prepare for an extra credit test he said he would be emailing them at home.

The class was surprised because the summer session was almost over and final grades were already pretty well established.

That evening, each student received a photograph of a large yellow canvas with one gray dot painted in the middle, along with instructions to write an essay on the painting.

When the professor received the answers back, all of the students, without exception, described the gray dot, its position on the canvas, the contrast and so on. After reading all the answers, the professor sent a follow up email out to all the students:

“I am not going to grade you on this test; I just wanted to give you something to think about. No one wrote about the yellow section of the canvas.

Everyone focused on the gray dot and the same thing happens in our lives. We have a whole canvas in front of us, but we are so busy focusing on the dark spot in the middle.

Life is a special gift with different layers: our friends, livelihood, love, family, and the miracles we see every day. I want you all to realize the dark spots in our lives are just one thing on a very large, bright personal canvas.

Take your eyes away from the apparent spots in your life and enjoy each one of your blessings and each moment that life gives you.

I wish you the best!”

An elephant drinking from a stream spotted a tortoise lounging on the shore. He grabbed it with his trunk and flung it into the jungle.

A passing zebra asked, “Why did you do that?”

“Forty years ago, that tortoise nipped my tail just for fun,” the elephant said.

“Wow, 40 years ago! How did you remember that?” “I have turtle recall,” replied the elephant.

Want to boost your creativity? It can enhance your career and your life. The Forbes

website offers these techniques for jumpstarting your brain:

• Say ‘Yes’: Don’t shut down ideas too quickly. Even if they seem unrealistic or impractical, take a positive approach by saying, “Yes, and  __.” Ask follow-up questions to spur a deeper exploration of the issues. You may discover a way to bring a seemingly impossible idea to life.
• Brainstorm: It’s easy to limit your thinking, especially when resources are scarce. Don’t fall into that trap. Expand on your idea without worrying about how much it will cost or how much work it will take. It’s always possible to scale it down later, but in the long run you’ll generate more impressive plans and strategies.
• Look for pain points: Find out what’s bothering your partners or customers. Chances are you can come up with interesting ideas for solving their most pressing problems. To cite one well-known example, an entrepreneur created Netflix, which initially shipped DVDs to homes for as long as customers wanted to keep them, because he realized people didn’t like late fees. Removing that one pain point led to a mammoth business.
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This summer is turning out to be a summer like no other I can remember. Everywhere, there is an element of hope, of wanting to believe that society is coming together and that we are on the road to remembering what summer feels like without any thought of social distancing.

There are all the familiar notes of summer pulsing with life: the sound of giggles wafting from tanned children, piles of ripe fruit sitting in colorful displays at the entrance of grocery stores, music pouring out from picnic radios, and evening sunsets that linger late into twilight.

Certainly, we cannot overlook the reality of recent, tragic events of the pandemic; but I am asking that we all face this summer with the bravery to move into a new normal that simultaneously acknowledges what we went through while looking to what we are capable of doing.

We are capable of connecting— the past few months proved we are able to connect online, by video, by phone, and by mail. We are capable of reaching out to those in need and lending help. We are capable of learning: everywhere, there are free online classes and new summer novels to savor. Most of all, we are capable of loving, of reaching out to friends and family in this brave new world of having realized what matters most.

This summer is ours to enjoy. These hot days are ours to bask in the glory of possibility... don’t forget to wear sunscreen.

Cheers!
Gino Pezzani

The arrival of COVID-19 caused stock markets and oil prices to fall and unemployment rates to rise.

In response, the Bank of Canada significantly lowered the prime interest rate and our provincial and federal governments launched a series of relief programs to help those impacted.

Locally, COVID-19 caused home sale and listing activity in Metro Vancouver to initially slow to about one-third of the pace witnessed prior to the pandemic. REALTORS® were quick to adapt, converting most services, like open houses, to a virtual environment. While housing market activity is beginning to pick up, some commentators have suggested that COVID-19 could cause home prices to decline longer term.

To help us make sense of these developments, we asked the British Columbia Real Estate Association's Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson a few questions. Here are his answers.

1. What long-term impact will COVID-19 have on our economy and housing market?
For the first time in over a decade, the BC economy is in a recession. But this recession is unprecedented in that it didn’t happen due to collective poor business decisions, rapidly rising interest rates, bad loans, or misadventures in financial engineering. Rather, the economy has been purposely halted for the greater good. The implication being that, the shorter the duration of this unusual period, the more likely it is that demand can more readily return to where it was pre-COVID-19 and the outsized employment losses experienced this year can be reversed.

The ultimate impact of COVID-19 will depend on how quickly economic activity can return to its pre-COVID-19 level. The speed of the recovery will depend on the level of comfort people feel in getting back to work, going to the store, or catching a movie with friends, a variable that’s ultimately unforecastable. As the economy “re-opens” and as the industry along with buyers and sellers adapt and innovate, we expect home sales will rebound, aided by record low mortgage rates and pent-up demand. While the way we do those things in a post-COVID world will certainly change, I’m optimistic the economy will bounce back strong in 2021, with the housing market leading the way.

2. What home price changes and other long-term trends do you expect to see?
The impact of the current pandemic and associated recession on home prices is largely determined by the reaction of supply. If the inventory of listings accumulates significantly, and particularly if that inventory represents foreclosures or motivated selling by those affected by rising unemployment, then prices will be more severely impacted.

However, given the unusual nature of COVID-19, the supply of listings for sale has declined for at least the first month of the pandemic. It’s likely that even as social distancing measures ease and normal recession dynamics take over, the total supply of homes for sale will peak at a lower level than would be expected given the underlying economic turmoil.

A muted rise in for-sale inventory along with plummeting interest rates and pent-up demand may translate to home prices remaining relatively firm in 2020. In fact, this is a scenario we often see during recessions. Look back on the 2008/2009 financial crisis and recession, truly a frenetic and frightening time. While benchmark home prices in Vancouver moderated slightly, by early 2009 they were rising once again, leading to a double-digit average increase over the next two years. While a repeat of the post-financial crisis prices growth isn’t our baseline forecast, it’s illustrative of how Vancouver home prices have fared, even under an otherwise extremely challenging economic climate.

3. What should Realtors do to adapt their business given today’s environment?
On this question, Realtors certainly don’t need the advice of an economist. The real estate sector has shown itself to be remarkably resilient in the face of this pandemic. In a relatively short period, Realtors have adapted to a complicated new environment while dealing with enormous uncertainty.

Whether through virtual tours or combinations of other high- and low-tech solutions, transactions continue to take place and Realtors continue to serve their clients while adhering to measures necessary to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. While activity is still far below where it would be normally, sales and listings do seem to be picking up quickly and I’m optimistic this trend will continue through the summer.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

https://www.rebgv.org/news-archive/expert-series--three-questions-with-bcrea-economist-brendon-ogmu.html