Canadian housing starts increased by 7% m/m to 262,396 units in August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This represents the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the fastest pace of national homebuilding since 2007, pushing up the six-month average to 213,144 units SAAR. August's increase was driven primarily by the multi-units segment in Ontario, marking the province's strongest pace of homebuilding since 1990.

In BC, housing starts increased by 6% m/m to 44,883 units SAAR in August, following an increase of 42,883 in July. The increase was primarily driven by the multi-unit segment. Housing starts in August were above the pre-COVID level. In the near term, we can expect housing activity to continue to be supported by sales that occurred prior to the pandemic and historically low borrowing rates. Meanwhile, the value of residential building permits was down sharply in July by 34%. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts were up by 23%.

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC:

Housing starts in Vancouver were up by 22% m/m to 29,754 units SAAR in August. Both multi-units (25%) and singles (1%) were up. Compared to last year, housing starts were up by 50%, marking the first notable year-over-year increase in 2020.

In Victoria, housing starts were down by 34% m/m to 2,732 units SAAR. Compared to a year ago in August, housing starts were up by 64%.

In Kelowna, housing starts decreased by 24% m/m to 2,629 unit SAAR. Starts were down by 55% in the region compared to the same time last year.

Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were up by 195% at 1,431 units SAAR. Compared to the same time last year, new home construction was up by 27%.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Switching to a new career in the midst of recovering from a crisis like the coronavirus outbreak can seem like a daunting task. However, many organizations that were forced to downsize early in the crisis will be looking for skilled professionals as the situation improves. Here’s some advice from the Inverse website on establishing a fresh new career:

• Audit yourself: Conduct a SWOT analysis on yourself. Identify your Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. Look at your core competencies and zero in on skills that you can transfer to a new role. Consider going back to school to fill in the gaps.

• Look for meaningful work. Identify the kind of work you find fulfilling and satisfying. Look for work that will provide opportunities you don’t have in your current role. Figure out what you enjoy doing so you can seek work that fits both your personal and professional needs.

• Become an expert. Pick a subject that matches your skills and educate yourself. Read up on the industry, its leaders, its opportunities, and its challenges. Because you’re starting out fresh, this is your chance to define yourself and show your passion for change.

It may take some time for the economy to snap back from the ravages of the pandemic, but we still have to focus on professional development, even when budgets are still tight. The Gallup website offers some suggestions:

Build relationships. Establishing trust with your co-workers is the best way to encourage everyone you work with to share what they know with each other. True strength— at work and elsewhere— comes with confidence.

Coach and be coachable. Focus on developing employees’ strengths, setting goals, sharing expectations, and encouraging them to learn and grow. At the same time, be open to advice from superiors or those who have been in the business longer than you.

Lead from wherever you are. Don’t hunker down and wait for things to return to normal. Set challenging goals for your organization and work with employees on what they need to learn to achieve your objectives.

Inspire others. Keep spirits high by encouraging people to learn and grow, and praising them when they do. Share a positive vision of success and recognize those who succeed.

Think critically. Question the conventional wisdom about your organization and industry. Seek out new information to apply different solutions to everyday problems.

Communicate. Let employees know what’s happening in your organization. This points them toward what they should be learning and doing to help you succeed.

Hold people accountable. As you set goals and challenges for growth and development, hold yourself and others accountable for results. This shows you’re serious and helps you and others hit their targets.

Canadian employment gained 246,000 jobs in August (1.4%, m/m), following a gain of 419,000 in July. Combined with gains in May and June, national employment is now within 1.1 million of its pre-COVID February level. The national unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points to 10.2% from the previous month. August gains were driven by full-time work, wherein the previous month it was in part-time work. Employment continued to increase at a faster pace in the services sector with the help of growth in educational services, accommodation and food services, and in other services sectors. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 5.3% (-1 million).

Regionally, employment increased in all provinces except in Alberta and in New Brunswick, with the largest gains in Ontario (142K) and Quebec (54K). In BC, employment grew by 15,000 (0.6%,m/m) in August, which follows a 70,000 gain in July. The province is now at 94% of its pre-COVID February employment level. The gain in August brought down BC's unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points to 10.7%. Meanwhile, in Vancouver, employment decreased by 2,300 jobs in August. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 6.6% (-170K) jobs.

Canadian employment grew for a fourth consecutive month, but the pace of growth is slowing. This was expected as containment restrictions were lifted in the early summer months, but have since halted in an effort to contain rising virus infections. Employment recovery is expected to continue to slow from here on, as many of the hardest-hit industries have reopened and educators start to return to school.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The legendary David Ogilvie was a pioneer of the advertising industry. One reason for his success and influence was his ability to create what he called “the Big Idea”—a memorable concept that he could wrap an ad around, or on which he could base an entire advertising campaign. Here’s how he developed Big Ideas—and how you can, too.

• Step 1. Analyze your data and look for the single element that best expresses what you want to say. What one idea do you want people to remember?

• Step 2. Take that idea and boil it down to a statement of 10 words or less, using lively, action-oriented language.

• Step 3. Build your presentation—whether it’s an ad, a speech, or a persuasive email— around your big idea.

In the earliest days of the pandemic, the very idea of reaching out and touching someone was suddenly suspect. However, as leaves begin to fall and the world feels like it is beginning to find balance in the new normal, I keep thinking now, more than ever before, we have to extend a hand even if we might not ever meet the subject of our kindness in person, or actually come in contact with anyone at all.

Have you ever been the lucky recipient of someone who decided to pay it forward? Whether it was a stranger who prepaid for your drink at a takeout window or the person in front of you with the cart full of groceries offering to let you slip ahead in line with your handful of items, chances are you’ve had someone reach out to you. That brief moment of kindness likely stuck with you throughout the day.

This year has been tough on all of us, but if we give a little kindness— even one compliment a day, issued to a stranger we encounter, costs us nothing and brings them momentary happiness— it will come back around.

My friend, as I sat down to write this, I was going to suggest we could all remember to extend a hand every now and again, reach out to lift someone up in a time of need. However, I’m growing an idea here and would like to suggest this: let’s all take a moment every day to pay it forward throughout the entire month of September.

More than once, I’ve written about accountability and I’m making myself accountable to you here now that I will do something kind for an individual every day this month, whether it ever comes back to me or not, simply because the world needs us to extend a hand to each other right now. Will you join me?

Gino Pezzani

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to fall in the second quarter of 2020 from 127.6 to 121.9, representing the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. It was the second largest drop in the indicator in over two decades, reflecting the hardest hit months of the pandemic in April and May. Compared to the same time last year, the index was down by 9.8 per cent.

The second quarter of 2020 saw the complete shutdown of key economic industries in BC, while employment continued to decline in manufacturing and in key real estate sectors. In contrast, the financial component had the largest positive impact on the CLI on record, as REIT prices rose and risk spreads narrowed from the previous quarter. The underlying trend in the CLI continued its downward trend into the second quarter of 2020. This suggests that going forward, the environment for commercial real estate activity in BC will continue to be weak.

BC’s economy was slowed by the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, and by the second quarter came to a halt. Manufacturing sales of both durable and nondurable goods fell by magnitudes not seen since the great financial crisis in 2009. The decline in wholesale trade was driven by lower sales in motor vehicles, and to a lesser extent by lower sales in personal and household goods such as clothing and footwear. Meanwhile, April saw the largest monthly drop in retail sales on record, as brick-and-mortar stores were shut down for most of the second quarter. Although online sales reached new highs during this period, they were not enough to offset the decline.

Employment growth in key commercial real estate sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate and leasing was negative for the second consecutive quarter, down by about 1,700 jobs, which is notably fewer than the 13,500 jobs lost in the previous quarter. Manufacturing employment fell for the fourth consecutive quarter by about 5,170 jobs, almost three times the number of jobs lost in the previous quarter.

The CLI’s financial component was positive in the second quarter of 2020 as the market bounced back from the full meltdown in late February that sent equity markets into free fall and government bond yields plummeting.

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF:
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For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.