The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rebounded in the third quarter of 2020 from 122.3 to 136.9, representing the first increase after four consecutive quarterly declines. It was the largest increase in the indicator since the start of the CLI series in 1999, reflecting a recovery from a significant drop in the first half of 2020, due to strict COVID-19 containment measures. Compared to the same time last year, the index was up by 1.3 per cent.

The third quarter of 2020 saw the resurgence of key economic industries in BC, particularly the hard-hit retail sector, as brick-and-mortar stores reopened and travel restrictions in the province were eased. Employment in key real estate sectors and manufacturing also rebounded in the third quarter, while the financial component of the CLI declined.

Although the CLI posted a strong recovery in the third quarter of 2020, this is not necessarily reflective of actual commercial real estate conditions, where a rebound in retail sales and employment would normally imply a rebound in retail and office space. The realities of the COVID-19 pandemic are currently driving a wedge between what we see in the data and what is being experienced on the ground.

BC’s economy reopened in the third quarter of 2020 after it was halted in the previous quarter by COVID-19 containment measures. Manufacturing sales were boosted by strong demand for wood products supplying robust activity in new home construction in Canada and the US. The increase in wholesale trade was driven by higher sales in motor vehicles and building materials, as many households undertook home renovations during this period. Retail sales also pulled ahead in the third quarter, increasing by 16.3 per cent, representing the largest quarterly growth since the start of the CLI series in 1999.

Employment growth in key commercial real estate sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate and leasing was up by about 15,000 jobs, recouping all losses reported in the first half of 2020. Manufacturing employment was also up by 12,500, nearly eclipsing job losses that started in the third quarter of 2019.

The CLI’s financial component was negative in the third quarter of 2020, as a fall in REIT prices more than overcame the impact of a reduction in risk spreads due to the Bank of Canada’s actions to provide liquidity in short-term credit markets.

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

You don’t have to do anything profound to make a difference from your home. The organization Give-19 offers a great example of people using their talents to help out a friend, neighbor, or even a stranger. Their mission is simple: give 19 of whatever you can. You can give $19 to someone who could use a bit of cash in their pocket, bake 19 cookies and give them to a friend to enjoy, or make 19 phone calls over the course of a week:just to reach out and say hello.

Although the organization that put forth the idea did so with the COVID-19 pandemic in mind, you can easily modify the concept indefinitely. It might also make for a great New Year’s resolution to give 19 different things each month in 2021.

Clearing out the cabinets? Wondering if that fruitcake that has been in your pantry since last year (or maybe the year before?) is still safe to eat? Here is a handy guide to common pantry items from the CNN website:

Honey- Because it’s low in water and sugars, bacteria can’t easily grow in it. Small amounts of hydrogen peroxide in honey also inhibit the growth of microbes.

Dried legumes- Beans, lentils, and other legumes stored in airtight, waterproof containers can last for years without losing their nutritionial value.

Soy sauce- Unopened, soy sauce can last for three years on the shelf, thanks to its combination of fermentation and salt.

Vinegar- Its acidic nature makes it difficult for bacteria to thrive. White vinegar will stay unchanged almost indefinitely, but other vinegars may change color or produce sediment in the bottle over time.

White rice- The key is temperature. White rice stored in an airtight container at about 27 degrees Fahrenheit can last up to 30 years, although brown rice has a shorter shelf life.

Dark baking cocoa- Chocolate fans rejoice! As long as it’s stored at a constant temperature, dark chocolate is safe to eat for two years or longer.

Whether you’re managing a team of employees or you’re working on your own, remember, it’s the “why” that provides real motivation to succeed.

The Backstory:

An experiment conducted by the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business demonstrates the power of “why”. The experiment was conducted in 2011, but the lessons from the study are more pertinent now than ever as we begin to consider what the new workplace norm looks like, and where we most want to focus our time and efforts.

The Experiment:

At a university call center where employees phone alumni to solicit contributions to scholarship funds, the staff was randomly divided into three groups. The first group read stories written by former call center employees about the benefits of the job, such as improved communication and sales skills. The second group read accounts from
former students about how their scholarships helped them with their education, careers, and lives. The third, a control group, read nothing.

The Results:

In measuring the results of the three teams after a month, researchers found that the first group and the third group raised roughly the same amount of money from alumni. But callers in the second group, who had read inspirational stories about the impact of the scholarships they were raising funds for, raised twice as much money from twice as many alumni.

The Lesson:

Understanding the importance of their work, the “why,” apparently motivated the second group and improved results. How can you apply that to your current workflow? What is your why?

Keeping your spirits up in today’s hectic business environment can sometimes be difficult, whether you’re working from home or in an external office. Below are three encouraging things to do when you feel negativity and self-doubt creeping in:

Think of something you’re grateful for.
It could be a professional accomplishment or a personal achievement. Bring it to your mind and talk to yourself about it. You’ll find that you can’t keep two different emotions in your mind at the same time. The feeling of gratitude will likely block out negative thoughts.

Find something you like about yourself.
For example, are you creative? How does this help you enjoy life? How does this help you do your job better? Focus on some positive aspect of your life, something you like about yourself, and expand on it.

Look forward to something.
Is there a movie you want to see or a vacation you’d like to take? Picture it in your mind as vividly as you can— think of associated colors, smells, sounds, and other sensations. A short mental break like this can combat negativity.

Whether you’re returning to a workplace, taking over a new space or working from home, you don’t want to waste time searching for basic supplies when a minor injury happens. Keep a first aid kit accessible and well stocked with supplies, including these items:

• Adhesive bandages of assorted sizes
• Sterile gauze and adhesive tape
• Antiseptic wipes for small cuts
• Eyewash
• A cold compress that does not require refrigeration
• Tweezers for removing pesky splinters

November is also a great time to schedule safety retraining— the bustle of December is still weeks away, so now is a great time for a refresher. Remember to cover these important areas of concern:

• The importance of knowing when to dial 911 for trained emergency help.
• Proper maintenance logs of equipment, whether that is a workplace alarm system or a home heating and air conditioning unit.
• An evacuation plan in case of emergency.

It was shaping up to be a rough day for Joe. First, his alarm went off and when he reached for the snooze button, he tumbled out of bed, banged his head, and landed in a heap of tangled sheets on the floor.

He showered and dressed, jumped into his car and turned the key only to find out the car wouldn’t start.

He called the auto club, but his membership had lapsed. He called a ride service, but they told him it would be a 20-minute wait.
Finally, he arrived at work an hour late and missed an important meeting... but showed up just in time to be chewed out by an upset customer.

Joe decided that what he really needed was a cup of coffee, but when reaching over to turn his computer on he knocked his mug over, spilling hot coffee in his lap before it fell to the floor. Bending over to pick up his mug, he again banged his head, this time on the edge of his desk.

His assistant walked into his office with a stack of urgent messages. “Wow!” he said, surveying the disaster. “Bad day?”, she asked.

“No, it’s a great day!” Joe sat up, holding a dusty pen. “I just found my lucky pen!”

Shortly after being forced out of Apple Computer, Steve Jobs bought a small computer manufacturer named Pixar. In 2000, he relocated the company to an abandoned factory. The original plan called for three buildings, with separate offices for computer scientists, animators, and the Pixar executives.
Jobs immediately scrapped it. Instead of three buildings, he wanted a single vast space with an atrium at its centre.

As Pixar’s Ed Catmull explains, “The philosophy behind this design is that it’s good to put the most important function at the heart of the building. Well, what’s our most important function? It’s the interaction of our employees. That’s why Steve put a big empty space there. He wanted to create an open area for people to always be talking to each other.”

Jobs saw separated offices as a design problem. He shifted the mailboxes to the atrium, then moved the meeting rooms, cafeteria, coffee bar, and gift shop to the centre of the building. “The atrium initially might seem like a waste of space,” says director Brad Bird. “But Steve realized that when people run into each other, when they make eye contact, things happen.”

Jobs insisted that the best creations occurred when people from disparate fields were connected, especially in an age of intellectual fragmentation.

Steve Jobs knew his team could send a message throughout the Pixar building in a millisecond, but he created an environment that encouraged interaction. Intuitively we know Jobs is right. The content of any message can be sent and delivered around the world instantly. The context of the message is the part that helps people understand each other. For that, we still need the best communication technology ever conceived – human contact.

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% in October year-over-year, up from the previous month's increase of 0.5%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.1%. Prices rose in five of eight components year-over-year in October, with food contributing the most to the increase due to rising prices for lettuce as a result of disease and inclement weather. Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points in October, averaging 1.8%.

Regionally, the CPI was positive in all provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 0.5% in October year-over-year, up from September's increase of 0.4%. Strong price growth continued for health and personal care (3.1%), shelter (2.2%), and food (2.0%). In contrast, downward price pressures were ongoing in gas (-18.0%), clothing and footwear (-3.8%), and transportation (-1.7%).

Costs for shelter continue to increase, as record-low interest rates put downward pressure on mortgage costs. This has made single-family homes more attractive to households demanding more space. As provinces such as Ontario and Quebec expand their containment measures, and with new restrictions in BC, Canadian inflation is expected to remain subdued. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will continue to keep interest rates low.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-oct-november-18-2020