If you or someone you know suffers from depression, this news could help. An article on the MedicineNet website reports that 35 minutes of exercise a day could help lower the risk of depression, even among people with a genetic predisposition for the ailment.

Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston analyzed two years’ worth of medical records and genetic information from close to 8,000 people. They calculated a genetic risk score for each person that predicted the likelihood of depressive episodes.

The data showed that people with a higher genetic risk were likely to be diagnosed with depression within two years, but physically active people with the same score— or even a higher one— were less likely to suffer from depression.

For every four hours of exercise a week, the risk of depressive episodes decreased by 17%. Both intense, aerobic workouts and low-intensity practices like stretching and yoga showed the same effect. Getting active may be the key to mental as well as physical well-being.

The Canadian economy expanded at a 9.6 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2020. Growth was led by increased government spending, business investment and investment in new home construction and renovations as well as a large change in business inventories as large drawdowns of inventory from previous quarters reversed. For 2020 as a whole, the Canadian economy shrank 5.4 per cent, the steepest decline since quarterly GDP data were first recorded in 1961. Interestingly, the households savings rate registered 12.7 per cent, the third consecutive quarter of double digit saving rate. Remarkably, total household savings in 2020 matched the cumulative savings of the previous seven years combined. That accumulated savings, and how it gets spent over the next year, will be a key component of what we expect to be a robust economic recovery in 2021.

Following an unprecedented 2020, we expect the Canadian economy will enjoy two years of very strong growth with the economy expanding by 5 per cent this year and a 4.3 per cent in 2022. An expected acceleration of vaccinations appears to be on the immediate horizon. As that roll-out progresses, we expect pent-up spending throughout the economy to be unleashed, driving a strong economic recovery. While the Bank of Canada has not changed its commitment to keeping its overnight rate unchanged until 2023, there has been substantial upward pressure on long-term Canadian interest rates as markets price in a faster than expected recovery along with the impact of the $1.9 trillion US COVID-19 relief package. As 5-year government bond yields move higher, 5-year fixed mortgage rates have also started to rise from a record low average of 1.8 per cent to a still very low level of 1.95 per cent. For context, the average 5-year fixed rate prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was about 2.9 per cent.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-q42020

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) reached a new high since the start of the series in 1999. The CLI rose from 139 to 144 in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing the second consecutive increase after four consecutive quarterly declines. Compared to the same time last year, the index was up by 5 per cent.

Although the CLI is responding to a sharp rebound in economic, financial and employment conditions, there is more here than meets the eye. Growth in these conditions would normally imply an improvement in demand for retail and office space. However, the complexities of the COVID-19 pandemic and related public health restrictions are driving a wedge between what we see in the data and what is being experienced on the ground.

Health restrictions in BC were tightened in the fourth quarter of 2020 to address rising COVID-19 cases. Despite this, manufacturing sales continued to recover, bolstered by strong demand for wood products to supply new home construction in Canada and the US. The increase in wholesale trade was driven by higher sales in motor vehicles and building materials, as many households undertook home renovations in the second half of 2020. Retail sales also continued to grow in the fourth quarter, but at a slower pace than the previous quarter as travel and health restrictions decreased mobility in retail spaces.

Employment growth in key commercial real estate sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate (FIRE) and leasing increased by about 10,400 jobs in the fourth quarter. Combined with employment growth in the previous quarter, this resulted in a full recovery of job losses in the FIRE sectors from the first half of 2020. Manufacturing employment was also up by about 5,700 jobs in the fourth quarter. Employment growth in this sector in the second half of 2020 nearly made up for all losses in the previous four quarters.

The CLI’s financial component was positive in the fourth quarter of 2020, as REIT prices rose and risk spreads fell, and investors gained confidence in the recovery of the global economy following widespread rollouts of the COVID-19 vaccine.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.

March sure is galloping in this year with all its green and golden glory! The cheerful proliferation of green shamrocks printed all over the place are a constant reminder that St. Patrick’s Day is the event of the month, but did you know the real St. Patrick originally had light blue livery? It wasn’t until he started using shamrocks as a teaching tool that green came to be associated with this icon of Ireland.

Although that might be useful knowledge to have on hand for your next trivia night with friends, I’m also sharing that fact with you because I think it is important to remember we have the power to craft our own history.

I love the thought that we craft our own history, regardless of what others try to tell our story should be.

Each of us tells the world what we stand for, if not with a particular shade of blue or green, then with a particular response to the people around us. We can change our own standard and improve what we are best known for.

This month marks only one-quarter of the year already written for the history books, which leaves us with nine months remaining in this year’s journal. Starting now, you can decide what details to include and what is not worth bothering with. You can add in new plot twists, welcome new characters, and decisively edit out anything or anyone that doesn’t belong in your story.

Try this: picture what you want people to say about you in December, then write down nine things that would need to happen for that statement to be true. Just like that, you wrote your own history and now have a goal for each month ahead of you.

Since you already wrote the story as you want it to end, all that is left is for you to enjoy living out the details and enjoying the smaller developments along the way. Here’s hoping it is full of good luck and good times!