BCREA 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – August, 2021 The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 26 per cent to 118,350 units this year, after recording 94,007 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS^®residential sales are forecast to pull back 15 per cent to 100,150 units.  

“The pace of home sales in the province has slowed in recent months but an unprecedented start to the year still has BC on track for a record-breaking year,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist.

With strong demand being supported by low mortgage rates and a rapidly rebounding post-COVID economy, the more significant concern is whether there will be an adequate supply of listings in the market. The supply situation is especially severe in markets outside the Lower Mainland, where new listings activity has been lackluster. As a result, the average price in 2021 is on track to post a second consecutive year of double-digit gains. We are forecasting the provincial average price to rise 16.6 per cent to $911,300 this year, followed by a 2.9 per cent gain next year to $937,300.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Technology has enabled a paralyzed man to communicate on a computer screen almost as fast as texting on a smartphone, according to the Science Focus website.

A Stanford University team used artificial intelligence (AI) software and a brain- computer interface implanted in the brain of a man who had lost movement below his neck after a spinal cord injury. The interface consists of two chips, about the size of a baby aspirin, implanted in the man’s motor cortex in the region that controls hand movements. The electrodes in each chip send signals from the neurons to a computer, where the AI software reads the motion of the patient’s hands and fingers.

The scientists instructed the man to imagine he was writing with a pen on a sheet of paper. Although more tests of safety, longevity, and effectiveness have to be conducted before the technique can be used more widely, the interface translated the mental visualization of handwriting movements into text, ultimately reaching a writing speed of about 18 words per minute, with 94% accuracy.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in July, hitting the highest rate since prior to the pandemic. Overall, the upward bias of "base-year effects" are no longer substantially influencing the year-over-year CPI changes, although they still have an effect on certain subcomponents such as gasoline. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.5% in July. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.5% year-over-year in July. In BC, consumer prices were up 0.7% month-over-month, and up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in July. The homeowner replacement cost index, which measures the cost of replacing home structures, rose 13.8% year over year in July, which was the fastest rate since the 1980s. Related costs, such as commissions on the sale of real estate, also rose strongly in July. Prices of passenger vehicles rose 5.5% year-over-year in July due to the continuing challenges related to semiconductor chip supply chains. 

While inflation is currently running higher than the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target, many economists expect this elevated rate of price increases to be transitory as economies emerge from the pandemic and supply chains normalize. Base-year effects from falling prices during the early months of the pandemic had exaggerated year-over-year changes in CPI, but these effects have now largely ended. The rate of inflation as measured by CPI is very important for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy stance over the next year. If higher inflation is not transitory but instead the result of an over-stimulated economy, the central bank could act to raise interest rates sooner than expected. However, if the uptick in inflation fades in the coming months, we expect the Bank will stay its current course.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-july-2021

The pandemic changed everything about the modern workplace, and pushed managers and worker bees alike to rethink what makes for a successful workplace. A vision statement, even one modified for newly learned lessons in diversity and inclusion, can guide your team or organization, but it needs to stimulate real action. Don’t waste your time on vague, feel-good catchphrases. Try this approach for project management:

Recruit a diverse team. Don’t start crafting a vision by yourself, and refrain from including only your usual group of friends and colleagues. Your vision-building team should include people from outside your department, and include employees who work closely with current customers and suppliers, and people from the top, middle, and lower levels of your group or organization. Or, if you work solo, be sure to include freelancers who embody different ideals for a wide scope of insight.

Define your process and purpose. What’s your objective in creating a vision? How do you plan to go about the task? What will the final vision look and sound like? Setting this out ahead of time minimizes the chances that you’ll fall prey to “mission creep” and try to accomplish too much with your project.

Take your time. A vision that inspires people to action doesn’t come out of a single afternoon brainstorming session. Everyone involved with your latest project needs to spend time asking questions about your industry, customers, competitors, trends—everything that affects the success of your vision. You have to build a foundation of learning before you can go forward.

Base your vision on principle. An effective vision isn’t about processes or products, but principles— guidelines for action and behavior. Explore the values that guide the organization: What’s their impact on what people do? Rely on principles that are timeless and easy to grasp, even if they’re sometimes difficult to live up to.

Think from a future perspective. Don’t base your vision on where you are today, but on where you want to be in five, or 10, or 50 years. Pretend you’re writing a history of the organization and talk about the directions you took and the obstacles you had to overcome in order to succeed.

Canadian housing starts dipped slightly in July, but remain elevated by historical standards. While housing starts decreased to 272.2k units (-3.2% m/m) in July at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR), on a year-over-year basis starts were still 11% above their July 2020 levels. Single-detached housing starts increased 7.1% from June, but this growth was not large enough to offset a 3.1% decline in multi-unit starts, resulting in an overall decline. 

In British Columbia, starts declined 26% m/m to 50.7k units SAAR in all areas of the province. This drop was driven by declines in multi-unit starts in metro Vancouver. Despite this volatility, starts in the province in July were still up 26% on a year-over-year basis. In terms of the six-month moving average, BC is at a record-high level of housing starts for a second consecutive month. In centres with at least 10,000 residents, single-detached starts were down 1%, while multi-unit starts were down 27% from last month. In Vancouver, housing starts were unchanged compared with July of 2020, while Victoria starts were up 72%, Kelowna was up 56%, and Abbotsford was up 2%.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-july-2021

Employee safety calls for a commitment from management. But what does that kind of commitment look like? The Maine Department of Labor’s SafetyWorks website spells it out:

Policy: Create a written policy emphasizing the importance your organization places on workplace safety and health.

Resources: Commit the time, money, and personnel necessary to protect your workforce.

Meetings: Hold regular safety meetings with specific expectations. Let employees know they will be expected to follow safe work practices on the job. Follow them yourself.

Listen: Respond to all reports of unsafe or unhealthy conditions or work practices.

Did you know? According to the history.com site the world’s first planned time capsule debuted in 1876, when New York magazine publisher Anna Deihm assembled a “Century Safe” at the U.S. Centennial Exposition in Philadelphia.

The iron box was stuffed with 19th century relics, including a gold pen and inkstand, a book on temperance, a collection of Americans’ signatures, and snapshots of President Ulysses S. Grant and other politicians taken by photographer Mathew Brady.

After being sealed in 1879, the purple velvet-lined safe was taken to the U.S. Capitol and eventually left to languish under the East Portico.

Though nearly forgotten, it was later rediscovered, restored and unlocked on schedule in July 1976, during the nation’s bicentennial festivities. At a ceremony attended by President Gerald Ford, Senator Mike Mansfield said the opening had honored “the wish of a lady who sought to speak to us from the other side of a 100-year gulf.”

With so many sunscreen choices available, how do you pick a sunscreen that’s right for you? The Skin Cancer Foundation gives a simple answer: purchase the one you are most likely to use, as long as it provides safe and effective protection, and is broad spectrum with an SPF 15 or higher.

Whether you choose a physical or chemical sunscreen, both include active ingredients that help prevent the sun’s UV radiation from reaching your skin. Here’s how the two types of sunscreen work:

Physical sunscreen, also called mineral sunscreen, contains ingredients like titanium dioxide and zinc oxide that block and scatter the rays before they penetrate your skin. Chemical sunscreen ingredients absorb UV rays, using ingredients like avobenzone and octisalate, before they can damage your skin.

While physical sunscreens may be less likely to cause skin irritation than chemical sunscreens, both types have been tested as safe and effective. In fact, many sun protection products available today combine both types of ingredients.

Keep in mind that while crucial, sunscreen alone is not enough. Seek the shade whenever possible and wear sun-safe clothing, like a wide- brimmed hat and UV-blocking sunglasses, for a complete sun protection strategy.

A wealthy man complained aloud and wished the same thing every night: “I am the most unhappy man on the earth and I would like to live a different life, an easier life.”

One night in a dream he heard a voice that told him: “Gather all of your miseries into a bag and bring them to the town hall.”

When he got to the town hall, the rich man saw that all of his neighbors had also packed their miseries into big bags. He saw that some people were carrying much bigger bags than his, some tattered and torn, and some so heavy it appeared they were filled with rocks. Even people he had always seen smiling at community events and saying nice things were carrying bigger bags. 

Inside the hall, the unseen voice said, “Lay your bags down.” Everyone put their bags down, and the voice said, “Now you can choose any bundle that you like,” but everybody rushed to their own bags.

The wealthy man also rushed towards his own bag, afraid that somebody else might choose it now that he saw how much smaller it was.

He walked home thinking, “Who knows what is in the other bags? I have the power to change my lot and my lot alone.”

That night, instead of wishing for an easier life, he realized how easy his life was and wished that someone else might have an easier time as well.