Vancouver, BC – March, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,902 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in February 2022, a decrease of 18.8 per cent from February 2021. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $1.109 million, a 24.9 per cent increase from $887,866 recorded in February 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $9.9 billion, a 1.5 per cent increase from the same time last year. 

“While sales are not keeping pace with the unprecedented level of activity we saw this time last year, demand continues to be quite strong,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “There are some encouraging signs that listings are recovering from historical lows, but there is a very long way to go before markets achieve balance.”
 
Provincial active listings were 19 per cent lower than this time last year with the total inventory of homes for sale in the province at just 16,000 units. That level of inventory is well below the roughly 40,000 listings needed for a balanced market.  

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment rose by 337,000 (+1.8%) in February more than reversing a 200,000 decline in January driven by Omicron-related public health measures, according to Statistics Canada. The labour market is increasingly tight, with the Canadian unemployment rate declining to 5.5%, a level lower than prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (5.7%) for the first time. The total hours worked (+3.6%) as well as the employment rate (+1.0%) also rose strongly.

As public health measures were partly lifted by the survey reference week in February, gains were concentrated in the Accommodation and Food Services (+114,000; +12.6%), and Information, Culture and Recreation (+73,000; +9.9%) sectors. Private sector employment rose by 2.8% to 347,000. On a year-over-year basis, wages were up 3.1%. The number of long-term unemployed Canadians fell by 51,000 (-19.4%) in February. 

In BC, employment rose more modestly than the rest of Canada (+21,000; 0.8%), but growth is very strong given that the province suffered no employment decline in January. Employment growth in February was concentrated in the Vancouver CMA (+18,000). Seasonally-adjusted employment in BC is not only above pre-pandemic levels, but hit a record high for a 5th consecutive month. The unemployment rate continued declining in BC, reaching 4.9%, the lowest rate since January 2020. Among the provinces, only Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have lower unemployment rates. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.
Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-february-2022

A marble statue stood in the middle of a large city, surrounded by hundreds of marble tiles that visitors from all over the world stood on to admire the statue’s beauty. One night, when the city square was empty, one of the marble tiles right in front of the statue spoke.

“Hey statue, don’t you think it’s unfair that people from all over the world come here to admire you, while ignoring and stepping on me?”

The statue replied, “Don’t you remember we were actually cut from the same block of marble?”

"Yes, I do! That’s why it’s even more unfair. Both of us came from that block, and yet the world treats you so differently now!”

The statue said, “Do you remember the day the sculptor tried to work on you, but you resisted his tools?”

“Yes, it hurt! I was mad at him! How could he use those nasty tools on me?”

The statue continued, “Well, because you resisted his tools, he couldn’t work on you, so he decided to give up and work on me instead. I knew at once that I would be something different and unique after his efforts, so I bore all the painful tools he used on me and allowed him to craft me as he wanted.”

The tile exclaimed, "But those tools were so painful!"

The statue said, “My brother, there is a price for everything in life. You decided to resist and give up, so you can’t blame anybody who steps on you now."

The marble tile silently listened to the statue’s words and started to reflect on them.

A cup of coffee or tea helps many people wake up in the morning, but they may also have health benefits later in life, according to recent research reported in Scientific American.

 One project by the National Institutes of Health studied the relationship between different kinds of beverages and depression, and found that coffee consumption was associated with slightly lower rates of self-reported depression.

A Chinese study found that adults who drink tea on a regular basis had a smaller risk of depression. Other research suggests that caffeine may play a role in preventing cognitive decline, but the evidence remains inconclusive.

March is Women’s History Month. During this month, we celebrate the efforts and accomplishments of women. One such woman is Julie-Victoire Daubié.

Born in France in 1824, Daubié grew to adulthood frustrated by the constraints limiting women’s roles in society. An essay she wrote about the opportunities denied to women during that era earned her a spot in a baccalaureate program. In 1861, she became the first woman to graduate from a French university.

Julie-Victoire Daubié spent  her  adult  life  engaged in activism focused on gender equality. March 26 is the 195th anniversary of her birth.

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell to 149.7 from 150.6 in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing the second consecutive decline since the economy began recovering from the recession induced by COVID-19. Compared to the same time in 2020, the index was up by 3.8 per cent.

The CLI dropped in the fourth quarter due to declines in the financial and employment components of the index. The decline in the employment component of the index was driven by a 4.1 per cent decline in finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) employment and a 6.2 per cent decline in professional services employment. Workers in sales and services occupations drove much of those declines, with workers in this subsector down 6 per cent from two years prior as the economy adjusts to the post-pandemic reality. The drop in the financial component of the index was driven by the rising spread between government and corporate borrowing rates. This spread on 3-month bonds jumped from 5 to 15 basis points in the fourth quarter as investors demanded higher risk-premia over government treasuries for lending to firms.

The economic component of the index was flat from the prior quarter. Although wholesale trade rose 0.7 per cent and manufacturing sales rose 1 per cent from quarter three, these were offset by a 0.8 per cent decline in retail trade. Ongoing supply chain disruptions, Omicron lockdowns and a shifting composition of consumer spending continues to hold down growth in these economic variables driving the CLI.

It is important to note that while the BC economy generally continues recovering strongly, the environment for commercial real estate remains highly abnormal and uncertain. Although the CLI was designed to interpret specific sectoral activity and employment growth as positive indicators for commercial real estate demand, the recent strong growth of these indicators may not translate as readily into improved conditions in the commercial real estate market relative to the pre-pandemic period.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

World Wildlife Day, March 3rd. A day to celebrate and raise awareness of the world’s wild animals and plants.

Pi Day, March 14th. Divide any circle’s circumference by its diameter; the answer is always approximately 3.14, a number represented by the Greek letter π. Keep calculating its digits and you’ll discover they go on forever.... literally!

St. Patrick’s Day, March 17th. May the luck and joy of the Irish be with you.

World Storytelling Day, March 20th. A global celebration of the art of oral storytelling celebrated every year on the March equinox.

As widely expected, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate this morning to 0.5 per cent, an increase of 25 basis points. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has added a major new source of uncertainty to the global economy, and it expects the fallout to include upward pressure on inflation and possible supply disruptions. However, economic growth in Canada finished 2021 stronger than expected and persistently higher inflation increases the risk up a continued upward move in inflation expectations. As such, the Bank states that it believes interest rates will need to rise further.

The Bank must now contend with inflation and inflation expectations that are much higher than the Bank is comfortable with, while also monitoring the potential impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on financial markets and commodity prices.  While we expect the Bank will continue to tighten, ultimately bringing its overnight rate to 1.75 per cent by early 2023, there is clearly more uncertainty in the global economy now than when the Bank decided to embark on this tightening cycle. That uncertainty is already being reflected in long-term Canadian interest rates, with the once rapidly ascending 5-year Govt of Canada bond yield falling about 30 basis points in recent days. 

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-m3zj4psoqd

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.