The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 4.25 per cent, its highest level since 2008. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy continues to operate in excess demand with tight labour markets and as a result inflation remains elevated. There is increasing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining the domestic economy, with household spending declining in the third quarter while interest-rate sensitive sectors like housing continue to sharply contract. The Bank continues to expect economic growth to stall through the end of 2022 and into the first half of 2023. Inflation is expected to ease over the next year, falling to 3 per cent in 2023 and returning to the 2 per cent inflation target in 2024. The next rate announcement is on January 25th, 2023. 

After a year of aggressive tightening that now appears to be at or very close to an end, the Bank may reverse course in the second half of 2023 as the economy slows significantly or even tips into recession. Crucially, any loosening of monetary policy will only occur if we see a sustained decline in inflation. Given weakening economic growth, falling gasoline and other commodity prices, and fading effects from pandemic driven supply chain problems, we could see a significant downward trajectory for inflation in 2023, which would provide the Bank with the necessary support to begin lowering its policy rate.

Link: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/fad-press-release-2022-12-07/

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The “clocks” in our bodies are important to maintaining good health—and interfering with them can cause big problems, according to researchers.

Three researchers recently won the Nobel Prize for their work studying how these clocks influence every cell in the human body. According to the NPR website, pulling an all-nighter for work or school, or jet lag from a transatlantic flight, can cause blood pressure to go up, disrupt hunger hormones, and increase blood sugar levels.

You can overcome these problems in time, but a regular schedule that throws off your body clock can lead to such health problems as weight gain and Type 2 diabetes. Late-night snacking can also disrupt your body clock. When darkness falls, your “master clock” advises other clocks not to eat. When you override that command, the pancreas starts releasing insulin to break down the food, which can reset the pancreatic clock and take it out of synch with other clocks in your body.

The takeaway? Be attentive and tune in to the clocks inside your body for better health.

If you're thinking about giving gifts to your employees during the December holidays, that's a good idea, but approach it with caution. Here are some basic pointers:

Don’t exclude people. Give gifts to your entire department. Handing out presents to some and not others will only cause resentment and trouble.

Be consistent. Give everyone the same item or a gift that is similar in price and style. Don’t give any one employee a present that stands out from the rest.

Go beyond the workplace. Don’t limit yourself to professional or workplace-related gifts. Decorative items for the home are usually appreciated as much as workplace accessories. 

Be careful when giving food. Some employees might have religious or medical restrictions on what they eat or drink. You should know your recipients well enough to steer clear of potential minefields.

Make returns simple. You can’t please everyone. Include gift receipts so people can return or exchange your presents without trouble.

Canadian employment rose by a hair to 19.666 million in November, up by 10,000 (0.05 per cent). The Canadian unemployment rate fell by 0.1 to 5.1 per cent, hovering just above all-time lows. Average hourly wages were up 5.6 per cent from this time last year. Wage gains remain below the inflation rate, however, which hit 6.9 per cent year-over-year in the most-recent data. Total hours worked were up 1.8 per cent year-over-year. 

Employment in BC fell by 0.5 per cent to 2.748 million in November, while Metro Vancouver's employment rose by 0.1 per cent month over month. BC's unemployment rate rose in November to 4.4 per cent, still near record lows, while Metro Vancouver's rate rose to 4.7 per cent. Among the provinces, only Quebec and Saskatchewan currently have a lower unemployment rate. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-november-2022-december-2-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell to 149 from 153 in the third quarter of 2022 while the six-month moving average retreated from a record high. Compared to the same time in 2021, the index was down by 0.8 per cent.

It is important to note that while the Canadian economy has enjoyed a strong recovery, the environment for commercial real estate remains highly abnormal and uncertain. Although the CLI is designed to interpret economic and office employment growth as positive indicators for commercial real estate demand, the recent strong growth of these indicators may not translate as readily into improved conditions in the commercial real estate market relative to the pre-pandemic period.

The CLI fell in the third quarter due to deteriorations in all three subcomponents of the index. The economic activity index was driven downwards by inflation-adjusted declines in wholesale trade, retail and manufacturing sales. Rapid appreciation in the consumer price index driven by supply chain obstacles and the war in Ukraine meant that rising nominal values in these economic areas were offset after adjusting for general price growth. The financial component of the index was negative as a result of falling REIT prices. Spreads between corporate and government borrowing costs also rose slightly from the prior quarter, contributing negatively to the financial component. The index’s employment component was also negative, with a rise in office employment (finance, insurance and real estate) insufficient to offset a larger decline in manufacturing employment.

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.