As a man took a leisurely walk through the well-maintained pathways of a renowned wildlife sanctuary, he came across a majestic herd of elephants.

This contained and tourist-friendly location provided a perfect opportunity for visitors to experience these enormous creatures up close. Despite being in such a controlled environment, he couldn't help but wonder at the sight of the elephants being held by nothing more than a tiny rope tied around their front legs.

Curiosity got the better of him, and he approached a nearby trainer to inquire about the peculiar situation. "Why do these massive animals stay put and make no effort to break free?"

To view the September 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast PDF, click here.

Highlights:

1. Bank of Canada tightening sends mortgage rates to 15-year highs

2. Are high rates finally impacting economic growth?

3. How far will fixed mortgage rates fall once the Bank of Canada lowers its policy rate?

Additional economics information is available here on BCREA's website. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in August, up from 3.3 per cent in July. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.1 per cent year-over-year in August, the same rate as July. Shelter costs were up 6 per cent year over year, up from 5.1 per cent in July, driven by mortgage interest costs (up 30.9 per cent from last year) along with rents (up 6.5 per cent). Grocery prices were up 6.9 per cent year over year in August, down from 8.5 per cent in July. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.8 per cent year-over-year.

The annual change in CPI continued rising in August as gasoline base year effects ended (the year-over-year change in gasoline prices was positive for the first time since January). Although food price inflation continued to gradually ease, shelter and rent inflation rates rose from July. Moreover, the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained stubbornly high; all three measures were flat or rose in August. With softening labour markets and a flat preliminary July GDP estimate following a small contraction in June, the Bank of Canada opted not to raise rates again in September. However, bond yields jumped following the unexpectedly hot August CPI release, suggesting markets think the Bank could change course again. Guiding inflation back down to 2 per cent was sure to be a bumpy ride and the possibility of another rate hike at the next meeting on October 25th or before the end of the year appears to be still on the table. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-august-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts fell 1 per cent to 252,787 units in August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 6 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 2 per cent to 55,665 units, while multi-family and others fell 2 per cent to 197,121 (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts were unchanged in August at 50,687 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 34 per cent m/m to 6,314 units while multi-family starts fell 4 per cent to 41,115 units. Starts in the province were 4 per cent above the levels from August 2022. Starts declined by 4.2k in Vancouver and rose by 2.6k in Victoria and 0.2k in Kelowna, while remaining unchanged in Abbotsford from the previous month. The 6-month moving average trend in BC rose by 4.1 per cent to 53,512 SAAR. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-august-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Do you remember hearing the “Clean Up” song as a young child? Maybe you’ve recently played it for some little ones? The song is meant as a sweet call to action for young children to clean up communal spaces in the home. However, I suspect all adults, myself included, could use a reminder every now and again to work in harmony, to clean up our surroundings, and restore peace and order to shared community spaces.

Although National CleanUp Day falls on September 16th this year, any day this month that works in your schedule would be a good one for a revitalization project. Perhaps your town is in need of volunteers to pick up roadside trash, or maybe you want to organize something more concrete, say, replacing old crayons at a local preschool with entirely new sets, donated for the children to enjoy?

The important thing, I think, is to choose something that speaks to you, that elicits passion, a project that promotes a cleaner community, and yet also— and this is the important part— lifts you up as well.

September is a month of transition. We start with those last hot days of summer and end with leaves falling all around us, a vivid indication that we are turning a corner in life. Cleaning up the world around us is certainly practical, but there is also something soulful about it; bringing sensibility to disorder is satisfying on some innate level.

Certainly, we could use a bit of revitalization with most of this year behind us, and what better time to bring a fresh start to life than this month with its increasingly crisp days? Do reach out and let me know if you decide to take on a project. I’m looking forward to hearing what you do with September!

Gino Pezzani

RE/MAX Heights Realty

www.vanhomesales.com

604-418-9366

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – September, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,608 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in August 2023, an increase of 15.7 per cent from August 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $958,424, up 5.2 per cent compared to August 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $6.3 billion, representing a 21.7 per cent increase from the same time last year.

“Home sales are starting to settle back into a trend of below-normal activity following an unexpected surge in the spring,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, sales are in a much stronger place than expected given current mortgage qualifying difficulty.”

Active listings in the province were flat month-over-month at just over 31,000 total listings and up slightly year-over-year.

Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 17.4 per cent to $52.7 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 13.4 per cent to 54,126 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was down 4.6 per cent to $973,011.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 0.6 points to 147 in the second quarter of 2023, while the six-month moving average fell to 147. Compared to the same quarter in 2022, the index was down by 4.7 per cent.

It is important to note that the environment for commercial real estate remains highly abnormal and uncertain. The CLI is designed to interpret economic and office employment growth as positive indicators for commercial real estate demand. The recent strong growth in these indicators may not translate as readily into improved commercial real estate market conditions due to structural changes in the economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The CLI rose slightly in the employment and financial categories while declining in the economic category. An increase in real retail sales was offset by a decline in manufacturing sales. Meanwhile, a drop in inflation-adjusted wholesale trade pulled the economic component into negative territory. Spreads between corporate and government borrowing costs declined slightly in the second quarter, offsetting the impact of a slight weakening in prices of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT). This resulted in a net positive contribution from the financial component of the index. Finally, a rise in office employment (finance, insurance, and real estate) more than counteracted a drop in manufacturing employment, causing a net increase in the index’s employment component.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment rose by 40,000 (0.2 per cent) in August. The Canadian unemployment rate remained flat at 5.5 per cent, pausing after having risen three prior consecutive months. Average hourly wages rose 4.9 per cent year-over-year to $33.47 in August, while total hours worked were up 2.6 per cent from August of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.4 per cent to 2.79 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.6 per cent to 1.58 million. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2 per cent in BC, down from 5.4 per cent in July, while falling to 5.8 per cent in Metro Vancouver. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-august-2023-september-8th-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.