To view the BCREA Housing Forecast PDF, click here.

BCREA 2023 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – October, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2023 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today. 

Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) residential sales in BC are forecast to decline 4.8 per cent to 76,700 units this year. In 2024, MLS^® residential sales are forecast to post a modest rebound, rising 4.8 per cent to 80,375 units. 

"Activity in the BC housing market has mirrored movements by the Bank of Canada over the past two years,“ said Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist. “As such, there is little reason to believe that sales will meaningfully detach from the anchor that is monetary policy over the next year. Thankfully, it appears that the Bank is at, or at least very near, the end of its tightening cycle and may begin lowering its policy rate late next year.” 

After trending down for most of the year, new listings activity has normalized in the second half of 2023, which, combined with slowing sales, has led to a modest uptick in total inventory. Still, at just over 30,000 listings, the supply of homes for sale falls considerably short of the roughly 45,000 active listings that are historically consistent with a healthy, balanced market. Prices saw a significant increase in the first half of the year, but that surge in prices has since given way to a flattening trend as market conditions balance out, albeit at a low level of market activity. We expect a 1.9 per cent decrease in annual prices for 2023 compared to 2022, with a slight uptick expected in 2024, driven by a projected recovery in the latter half of the year.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank ofCanada maintained its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that there is growing evidence that higher interest rates are dampening economic activity, and it expects growth to be weak through 2024. On inflation, the Bank sees little downward momentum in its preferred measures of core inflation and expects inflation to average 3.5 per cent until the middle of next year before falling back to its 2 per cent target in 2025.  Notably, the Bank stated that it is concerned that price stability is slow and inflationary risks have increased. As such, it is prepared to still raise its policy rate further if needed.

The combination of a slowing economy with inflation seemingly stuck in a range of 3 to 4 per cent muddies the outlook for rates over the next year, though as the Bank clearly stated, there is the possibility of more rate increases if inflation does not decline. Our bet is still that the impact of high interest rates will tip the economy at least briefly into negative territory, and that consumer spending will slow further. However, without significant progress on returning inflation to its 2 per cent target, households may be waiting longer than expected for relief on variable mortgage rates. Yields on five-year Government of Canada bonds have come down from their highs near 4.5 per cent but remain at their highest level in 15 years. Consequently, fixed mortgage rates have hit annual highs over 6 per cent, the impact of which is compounded by an increasingly punishing stress test. We expect five-year fixed mortgage rates may start to come down in early 2024 as bond markets price in future rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.  However, once the Bank lowers its policy rate back to neutral (2-3 per cent), fixed mortgage rates will settle at a level that is higher than borrowers have become accustomed to over the past decade.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-hhun143ys0

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

A single father who had been laid off from his job was watching expenses closely for months while applying for every job he could find in his field. Months earlier, he’d made a promise to his two sons—twins—that he’d take them to a nearby amusement park to celebrate their 10th birthday.

When their birthday arrived, the father withdrew money from his savings account. Explaining that the walk to the amusement park was good for them, he skipped the parking fee by parking blocks away, knowing he’d need the extra cash to pay for lunch. At the front gate was a sign with two prices listed—one for general admission and one for children under 10. The father realized he could have spent half as much if he’d come just one day sooner. With a sigh, he led the boys to the ticket window and said, “Three general admission tickets, please.”

The woman in the booth looked at them and smiled. “How old are you, boys?”

“Today is my birthday, I just turned 10,” said one boy.

“So am I,” said the other. “We’re twins!”

The woman leaned forward. “You know,” she whispered, “you could have asked for two ‘Under 10’ tickets, and I never would have known.”

“Yeah,” said the father, “but they would have.”

Canadian housing starts rose 8 per cent to 270,466 units in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 9 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 2 per cent from last month to 56,880 units, while multi-family and others rose 10 per cent to 213,585 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell 18 per cent from last month to 40,493 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 10 per cent m/m to 5,621 units while multi-family starts fell 21 per cent to 31,409 units. Starts in the province were 25 per cent below the levels from September 2022. Starts declined by 5.3k in Vancouver and by 5.4k in Victoria while rising by 780 units in Kelowna from last month. In Abbotsford, starts were unchanged. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 3.5 per cent to 51,108 SAAR. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-september-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Imagine a world where your small acts of kindness warm your heart, improve your health, strengthen your community bonds and even extend your lifespan.

This is not a utopian dream; it’s the reality for everyday philanthropists—individuals who discover that giving, regardless of the size of their bank accounts, creates a ripple effect of positivity in their lives and the lives of others.

Although we usually correlate philanthropy with wealthy people, anybody, regardless of their income, can enjoy the benefits of giving. Here's a case that proves anyone can be a philanthropist within their means:

While serving in the Navy during World War II, Thomas Cannon survived several accidents that killed more than 300 of his shipmates. Cannon credits his escape from these accidents as the reason for his philanthropy. "Such escapes made me believe that I was being preserved for something,” he says.

Cannon, who began donating money in 1972, frequently chose people whom he heard about in the news. Throughout 33 years, Cannon gifted more than $156,000, often by mailing $1,000 checks to the staff of the local newspaper, with instructions about who should receive the money. His charity helped support a local group that volunteered in the elementary school, a woman who started a youth center in her low-income neighborhood and an orphaned teen who was active in his community.

Cannon managed these donations on a $20,000-a-year postal worker salary. In time, he was forced to quit his job and become a full-time caretaker for his wife. That's when much of his philanthropy came back to him, as the community came together to provide him and his wife with a house and medical care.

Before he died, Cannon suggested the best way to honor his memory would be for others to just “Help somebody.”

Gino Pezzani

RE/MAX Heights Realty

www.vanhomesales.com

604-418-9366

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from 4 per cent in August. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 3.7 per cent year-over-year in September. Shelter costs were up 6 per cent year over year, the same increase as August, driven by mortgage interest costs (up 31 per cent from last year) along with rents (up 7 per cent). Grocery prices were up 5.8 per cent year over year in September, down from 6.9 per cent in August and 8.5 per cent in July. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.2 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

Price appreciation took a breather last month, bucking expectations and slowing in September. While shelter inflation continued to show high price growth, food inflation has softened significantly since the start of the year, falling by nearly half from over 10 per cent in January. While still stubbornly high, the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, moderated in September. Amid weakening labour markets and flat GDP growth, this unexpectedly cool inflation report offers hope that the Bank of Canada may not need to tighten as much as expected, and bond yields fell following the release. Markets now put the majority odds on the bank holding rates steady for the remainder of the year. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-september-2023

Vancouver, BC – October, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,531 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in September 2023, an increase of 10.4 per cent from September 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $966,530 up 4.8 per cent compared to September 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $5.3 billion, representing a 15.7 per cent increase from the same time last year.

“Home sales in BC have clearly been impacted by the Bank of Canada's recent tightening of interest rates, along with the resulting surge in mortgage rates,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Home sales are once again trending at below average levels as potential buyers struggle with a high cost of borrowing.”

Active listings in the province were up slightly month-over-month at just over 33,000 total listings and were 8.1 per cent higher year-over-year.

Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 15 per cent to $57.9 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 11.5 per cent to 59,570 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was down 4 per cent to $972,049.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

1 medium-sized butternut squash, peeled, seeded, and cubed

1 onion, chopped

2 cloves of garlic, minced

2 carrots, peeled and chopped

2 celery stalks, chopped

4 cups vegetable broth

1 teaspoon dried thyme

1/2 teaspoon ground cinnamon

Salt and pepper to taste

2 tablespoons olive oil

Optional toppings: roasted pumpkin seeds, a drizzle of cream, or fresh herbs.

Use an immersion blender or transfer the soup to a blender in batches, and blend until smooth and creamy.

Return the soup to the pot and reheat gently, if needed. Adjust the seasoning to taste. Serve the butternut squash soup hot, garnished with the optional toppings.

Enjoy this delicious and warming butternut squash soup during the cozy October weather!

Canadian employment rose by 64,000 (0.3 per cent) in September. The Canadian unemployment rate remained flat at 5.5 per cent, now unchanged for three consecutive months. Average hourly wages rose 5 per cent year-over-year to $34.01 in September, while total hours worked were up 2.6 per cent from September of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.9 per cent to 2.81 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 2 per cent to 1.61 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5.4 per cent in BC, up from 5.2 per cent in August, while remaining unchanged at 5.8 per cent in Metro Vancouver. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-september-2023-october-6th-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.