Canadian housing starts fell sharply by 22 per cent to 212,624 units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 19 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts fell 6 per cent from last month to 56,268 units, while multi-family and others fell 26 per cent to 156,356 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts dropped 35 per cent from last month to 39,051 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 7 per cent to 5,181 units while multi-family starts dived by 40 per cent to 31,288 units. Starts in the province were 19 per cent below the levels from November 2022. Starts fell from last month by 13.6k units in Vancouver, 3.2k in Victoria, and 4.4k in Kelowna while rising by 2.1k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 0.6 per cent to 50,543 SAAR. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-november-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Perched on a cliff's edge, overlooking a vast, churning sea, stood Leo, an old lighthouse. He had been guiding ships safely for years, his light cutting through the darkest nights and foggiest days. But during the holidays, when the village lights twinkled and laughter echoed, Leo felt his solitude most acutely.

One frigid evening, when the icy winds howled and the waves raged, a wounded seagull sought refuge upon Leo's weather-beaten windowsill. Leo, embracing this unexpected companion, radiated a gentle, welcoming glow, offering respite from the merciless chill that gripped the lonely bird.

As days turned into nights, Leo and the seagull discovered solace in their silent companionship.

When the festive holiday season finally yielded, the fully healed seagull prepared to rejoin its feathered kin. But before taking flight, it left a brilliant, iridescent feather as a token of gratitude upon Leo's window ledge.

Each year, on that same day, a single seagull would visit Leo and leave behind a feather.

And Leo, the lonesome lighthouse, realized that solitude, when embraced, could lead to the most unexpected and profound connections.

With one month left in 2023, a steady increase in housing inventory is offering home buyers across Metro Vancouver among the largest selection to choose from since 2021.

Learn more at www.rebgv.org

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, BC –  December, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,630 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in November 2023, an increase of 2.2 per cent from November 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $964,246 up 6.6 per cent compared to November 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $4.5 billion, representing an 8.9 per cent increase from last year. 

“Despite high mortgage rates and generally weak sales, home prices across the province have been remarkably resilient in 2023,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Low inventory has meant that prices hold firm even at the much-reduced levels of sales activity experienced this year.”

On a seasonally adjusted basis, active listings in the province have increased for the sixth consecutive month and are now back to their highest level since August 2020.

Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 12.4 per cent to $67.5 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 9.8 per cent to 69,551 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was down 2.9 per cent to $971,069. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell 0.6 points to 145.5 in the third quarter of 2023, while the six-month moving average fell to 146.3 points. Compared to the same quarter in 2022, the index was down by 3.2 per cent. 

The CLI rose in the employment category while declining in the economic and financial categories. A 5 per cent increase in office employment (finance, insurance, and real estate) more than counteracted a 2 per cent drop in manufacturing employment, causing a net increase in the index’s employment component from the second quarter. Meanwhile, modest declines in inflation-adjusted retail sales, wholesale trade, and manufacturing sales combined to pull the economic component into negative territory. Finally, rising spreads between corporate and government borrowing costs indicated growing borrowing costs for developers and pulled the financial component downwards. At the same time, a drop in average prices of Real Estate Investment Trusts further dragged the financial component into negative territory. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that economic growth stalled through the middle quarters of 2023 and that slowdown in growth is expected to extend into the fourth quarter. As a result, inflationary pressure is easing, though the Bank stated that it is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and wants to see a sustained easing of core inflation in future months.

Given the evidence of a slowing economy and some long-awaited downward momentum in core inflation, it appears likely that the Bank of Canada’s rate-tightening cycle is at an end.  If so, the conversation around Bank of Canada meetings in 2024 will shift toward when the Bank might lower rates and how fast. Given that the Bank’s estimate for its neutral rate is between 2 and 3 per cent, we can expect between 200 and 300 basis points of rate cuts once it is clear that inflation is returning to its 2 per cent target. After hitting a 15-year high this fall, Canadian bond yields have been tumbling to finish the year as financial markets process meaningful progress on reducing inflation and the projected end of central bank rate hikes. The five-year Government of Canada bond yield has trended near 3.5 per cent over the last week and if that trend sustains, we will see a meaningful decline in fixed mortgage rates to start 2024. Our forecast is for the average 5-year fixed mortgage rate to fall to about 5 per cent by the end of 2024, while variable rates will begin falling as the Bank of Canada lowers its overnight rate starting in the first or second quarter of next year. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-rz6duwc27m

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

National Cookie Day, Dec. 4. Bakers unite and warm up the ovens for holiday baking!

First Day of Hanukkah, Dec. 7. This 8-day Jewish festival also is known as the Festival of Lights.

Winter Solstice, Dec. 21. This is the shortest day and longest night in the Northern Hemisphere, signaling the official start of winter.

Christmas Day, Dec. 25. This Christian holiday celebrates the birth of Jesus. Nonreligious people and those of different faiths celebrate the day as a cultural event.

New Year’s Eve, Dec. 31. The last day of the calendar year is marked by celebrations worldwide welcoming the New Year.