Canadian retail sales rose 0.6 per cent to $67.6 billion in October from the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 1.5 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 0.2 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales were unchanged in October.

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.9 per cent in October month-over-month and up 1.5 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.1 per cent from the prior month and 1.1 per cent higher than October 2023.

October's retail sales demonstrate a recovery in Canadian retail activity over the past few months as the Bank continues cutting toward its neutral range. The Bank of Canada will hope that Canadian retail growth serves as a proxy for next week's GDP report as it seeks guidance on whether the economy is rebounding in accordance with its 2025 forecast. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-october-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian real GDP increased by 0.3 per cent in October, following a 0.2 per cent increase in September. Service-producing industries grew by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries rose by 0.9 per cent. October's growth was driven by gains in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+2.4 per cent), construction (+0.4 per cent), wholesale trade (+0.5 per cent), and real-estate and rental and leasing (+0.5 per cent). Finally, GDP for real-estate offices and agents was up 6.3 per cent month-over-month. Overall, the Canadian economy exhibited growth in 12 out of 20 industries.  Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in November.

After third-quarter growth that fell short of the Bank of Canada's expectations, Canada's output in October shows some positive signs of consumer activity and builds upon some encouraging trends observed in the previous month. We expect the Bank to cut by 25-basis points at their first two meetings in 2025 and then pausing to assess the need for further stimulus. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-october-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Some extra care can keep your poinsettia staying beautiful for months. Location is the first consideration: Place it near a bright and indirect light source.

If the pot is wrapped in decorative foil, punch holes in the bottom so the plant's roots will not be standing in water. Place the plant in a saucer to collect extra water.

When watering it, always use water that is room temperature, so the roots don't chill. Slowly add water to the pot until it drains out the bottom. Discard the excess water.

Water only when the top quarter inch of the soil is dry. Too much water will make the leaves turn yellow and drop; not enough water will cause the plant to wilt and drop its leaves.

Winter is the perfect season for comfort food—think warm soups, creamy casseroles, and hearty stews. But indulgence doesn’t have to mean unhealthy.

By adding a few smart twists to your favorite dishes, you can keep them nourishing and satisfying without overloading on heavy ingredients.

1. Swap heavy cream for coconut milk or Greek yogurt: For creamy soups or sauces, replace heavy cream with coconut milk or plain Greek yogurt. Coconut milk adds richness without the extra fat. Greek yogurt brings protein and tang to such dishes as mac and cheese or creamy soups.

2. Load up on seasonal veggies: Winter brings a bounty of nutrient-packed vegetables, such as sweet potatoes, Brussels sprouts, and butternut squash. Add roasted veggies to your favorite comfort meals or swap them in for carbs. For instance, use mashed sweet potatoes instead of regular potatoes or make a veggie-packed chili.

3. Go for whole grains: Comfort food can still be hearty without being heavy. Use whole grains, such as quinoa, farro, or barley, in casseroles or soups. They add fiber, keep you feeling fuller longer, and deliver a satisfying texture.

4. Bake with a healthy twist: Winter desserts can get a healthy makeover by swapping sugar for natural sweeteners, such as honey or maple syrup, and using almond or coconut flour instead of white flour. Add cinnamon, nutmeg, or ginger to up the flavor and give your baked goods a cozy, seasonal twist.

With these easy tweaks, you can enjoy winter comfort foods while keeping them light and nourishing. So go ahead—indulge, but with a little extra goodness!

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Highlights:

• Bond markets searching for clarity on the outlook for growth and inflation as tariffs loom.

• Tariffs on Canadian imports to the US could mean a loss of 1 to 5.5 per cent of real GDP.

The Bank of Canada might be done with jumbo cuts, but is likely to continue cutting. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Cinnamon, a festive spice loaded with antioxidants and anti-inflammatory properties, can help regulate blood sugar, improve heart health, and even boost brain function, according to research published by the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). This makes it a great addition to your holiday season.

Try sprinkling cinnamon on oatmeal, stir it into coffee or tea, or add it to baked apples for a healthy twist. You can also mix it into holiday desserts for a delicious and health-conscious treat. It’s a tasty way to enjoy its warming flavor while reaping some health benefits!

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in October. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI increased by 0.1 points in November. Excluding gasoline, the CPI was unchanged at 2.0 per cent in November. Overall shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 13.2 per cent, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Conversely, rent was up 7.7 per cent in November year-over-year, up from 7.3 per cent in October. In spite of accelerating rent price growth, total shelter costs rose 4.6 per cent in November, down from 4.8 per cent in October. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.4 per cent in October. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained unchanged at 2.6 and 2.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Canada's CPI report for November marks a stabilization around the midpoint of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range. With CPI ex-gasoline remaining relatively steady, November's headline CPI is likely driven by tailwinds from Black Friday and other related sales which partially accounted for lower prices and higher consumption across several sub-sectors. In spite of this stimulus, many of the special aggregate CPIs published by Statistics Canada remained either unchanged or slightly decelerated, indicating lingering weaknesses in consumer spending. Moving into the new year, the Bank has emphasized concerns of decelerating inflation as much as movement in the opposite direction. Given our trade uncertainties with the incoming American administration, coupled with an underperforming economy, the Bank will monitor the last monthly GDP report of 2024 to set the stage for their agenda heading into 2025, namely, the speed and depth at which they continue cutting the overnight. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-november-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts rose 8 per cent to 262,433 units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 25 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were 3 per cent higher from last month at 60,781 units, while multi-family and other starts rose by 10 per cent to 201,661 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts rose 18 per cent from last month to 50,447 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts were mostly unchanged at 4,586 units, while multi-family starts rose by 23 per cent to 44,002 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 28 per cent above the levels from November 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts are up by 46 per cent in Kelowna, while being down by 14 per cent in Vancouver, 16 per cent in Victoria, 8 per cent in Abbotsford, and 7 per cent in Nanaimo. 

Canadian Housing Starts (November 2024)

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.