Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, down from a 2.6 per cent increase in February. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI was unchanged in March. The overall slowdown in headline CPI is largely driven by lower gasoline prices, with the CPI ex-gasoline rising by 2.5 per cent in March. Shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 7.9 per cent, marking the nineteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Similarly, rent was up 5.1 per cent year-over-year in March, down from 5.8 per cent in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year, down from 3.0 per cent in February. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, are at 2.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent year-over-year, respectively.
After a sharp uptick in February, March's CPI report saw headline inflation moderate towards the neutral range of 2.0 per cent. However, the Bank's core measures of inflation continue to linger near the ceiling of their target range, suggesting some underlying upward pressure in prices. Nonetheless, markets remain uncertain about the Bank's decision on Wednesday as Canada braces for the inflationary impacts of tariffs. This report slightly favours the odds of a 25-point rate cut on Wednesday to pre-emptively brace the economy for the damage caused by tariffs.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-march-2025
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The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.75 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada. The Bank sees two potential scenarios for the Canadian economy, either high but limited tariffs that temporarily weaken growth or a protracted trade war that causes both a full recession and inflation to rise above 3 per cent. The Bank is already seeing signs of a slower economy due to the impact of uncertainty on consumer and business confidence, but expects tariff driven supply chain disruptions will put upward pressure on prices later this year. Perhaps most importantly, the Bank ended its statement with the following: "
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