Canadian retail sales decreased by 0.8 per cent to $69.6 billion in July compared to the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 4.0 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, were down 1.2 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales decreased by 0.8 per cent in July.

Retail sales in British Columbia were down 0.8 per cent in July from the previous month and rose by 7.6 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 1.6 per cent from the prior month and were 8.9 per cent above the level of July 2024.

July's report contributes to a broader trend of sizeable monthly volatility in Canadian retail sales, with retail activity decreasing in eight out of nine major subsectors compared to June. Moreover, weakness in core retail sales may be indicative of a weakening Canadian labour market and economy as households adapt to a dimmer outlook for the year's final quarter. After cutting the overnight rate earlier this week, the Bank of Canada will monitor how core inflation and growth evolve before forming a policy stance for its meeting in October.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-july-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts decreased 16 per cent from the previous month, totalling 245,791 units in August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 15 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts decreased by 2 per cent from last month to 55,271 units, while multi-family and other starts decreased by 20 per cent to 190,519 units (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts fell by 19 per cent from last month to 46,274 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts increased by 7 per cent to 4,284 units, while multi-family starts fell by 22 per cent to 39,480 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 34 per cent above the levels from August 2024. Year-to-date starts are up 150 per cent in Abbotsford and 31 per cent in Victoria, but down 56 per cent in Nanaimo, 37 per cent in Kelowna, and 0.6 per cent in Vancouver.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7 per cent increase in July. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI was up 0.2 per cent in August. The CPI ex-gasoline increased by 2.4 per cent in August after holding at 2.5 per cent during each of the previous three months.  Additionally, shelter price growth was 2.6 per cent in August, the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2021, and down from 3.0 per cent in July. Food price growth registered at 3.4 per cent year-over-year, marginally higher than the previous month. In BC, consumer prices rose 1.8 per cent year-over-year in August, up from 1.7 per cent in July. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained at 3.1 per cent and 3.0 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

While the Bank of Canada's core measures of inflation have remained at the upper end—and even outside of—their target range, 3-month annualized core inflation has stabilized around 2.5 per cent. Coupled with weaker-than-expected second-quarter growth, this report is unlikely to sway the Bank of Canada away from a likely rate cut tomorrow in hopes of stimulating the economy heading into the final quarter of the year.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-august-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight policy rate to 2.5 per cent this morning. In its statement, the Bank noted that US tariffs sharply impacted Canadian export levels while also hindering business investment. In spite of resilient consumer spending, GDP declined by about 1.5% in the second quarter, aligning with the Bank's most recent projection. In addition, the Canadian labour market has cooled further through the summer, with the national unemployment rate reaching 7.1 per cent, its highest level since May 2016, excluding the pandemic. Regarding inflation, the Bank noted that the upward pressure on month-over-month core inflation growth is dissipating, which, coupled with the de-escalatory behaviour from our government, reduces the overall inflationary risks associated with trade policy moving forward.

Taken together, the Bank of Canada signalled a tangible shift in policy rate considerations, emphasizing weak economic growth in conjunction with stabilized inflation as a backdrop to lower rates. However, the Bank expressed continued caution and vigilance regarding its outlook due to the lingering uncertainties associated with US tariffs and their risks to Canada's export potential. Financial markets are now shifting attention towards what the Bank will do before the end of the year, with many economists believing that tempered inflation and prolonged weakness in the economy will result in an additional 25-point cut, bringing the policy rate to 2.25% by year-end. These expectations are reflected in 5-year bond yields, which have stabilized around 2.71%, down about 0.4 points from their summer peak.  This broader trend will place downward pressure on 5-year fixed mortgage rates, which we hope stimulates stronger sales activity to close out a weak year in the housing market overall.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.