The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight lending rate this morning by 25 basis points from 4.5 per cent to 4.25 per cent. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that growth in the Canadian economy was slightly stronger than expected in the second quarter but showed signs of softer activity through the summer.  Inflation is evolving largely as expected, and the Bank judges the economy to be in excess supply which should put further downward pressure on price growth.

Focus has shifted from whether the Bank of Canada will lower rates, to how quickly, with some analysts even looking for larger 50bps cuts in the future. The trends to watch over coming months are the state of the Canadian labour market and whether inflation is following the Bank of Canada's forecast. As long as price growth isn't deviating from expectations, and employment is not significantly weaker, we should see continued rate cuts at an orderly 25bps pace until the Bank reaches its neutral range between 2.25 and 3.25 per cent in 2025. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.