Canadian real GDP decreased by 0.2 per cent in February, following a 0.4 per cent increase in January. Service-producing industries declined by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries fell by 0.6 per cent. Twelve out of twenty major industries contracted from the previous month, driven by mining, quarrying, and oil/gas extraction (-2.5 per cent), construction (-0.5 per cent), and transportation/warehousing (-1.1 per cent). Finally, GDP for real-estate offices and agents was down 10.4 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP increased by 0.1 per cent in March.

After a strong beginning to the year, February's GDP data pulled Canadian economic growth below the Bank of Canada's most recent quarterly projection. Additionally, this report captures newly introduced tariffs into the Canadian economic landscape, hence painting a bleak outlook for the subsequent months. During their previous meeting, the Bank emphasized the inflationary risks of tariffs while suggesting patience on policy rate adjustments according to how prices evolve. In a highly volatile environment, the Bank will closely follow next month's CPI and GDP reports to guide its next decision in June. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-february-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.