Canadian real GDP increased by 0.4 per cent in January, following a 0.3 per cent increase in December. Service-producing industries grew by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries rose by 1.1 per cent. Thirteen out of twenty major industries expanded from the previous month, led by mining, quarrying, and oil/gas extraction (1.7 per cent), construction (0.7 per cent), and manufacturing (0.8 per cent). Finally, GDP for real-estate offices and agents was down 3.7 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP was unchanged in February.

As its first rate cut of 2025 transmits through the economy, the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see Canadian economic growth surpassing its projection. Unfortunately, these numbers are likely non-influential in the Bank's next meeting, as they reflect an environment before tariffs were enacted. Given the immense uncertainty surrounding Trump's reciprocal tariffs next week, the Bank is most likely to hold during its next meeting before reassessing how the economy responds to these shocks.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-january-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.