Canadian real GDP rose by 0.2 per cent in July, after declining by 0.1 per cent in June. Goods-producing sectors rose by 0.6 per cent, while service-producing industries increased by 0.1 per cent. Sectoral growth was led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (1.4 per cent), manufacturing (0.7 per cent), and wholesale trade (0.6 per cent). The biggest detractor from growth was from retail trade (-1.0 per cent), while all goods-producing industries grew from the previous month. Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers rose by 3.6 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry was largely unchanged in August.

The Canadian economy returned to growth in July following several consecutive months of contraction. However, July’s upswing appears temporary, as August’s preliminary estimate suggests growth was flat to close out the summer. We expect the Bank of Canada to cut once more this year to address underlying weaknesses in the Canadian economy and labour market. With that being said, central bankers and economists will now focus on October’s employment and CPI reports —the last two data points for the Bank to consider before its next meeting.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.