About BCREA’s Housing Monitor Dashboard

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include: 

• Resale Home Market

• Construction

• Rental Market

• Borrowing Costs

• Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian real GDP grew 0.2 per cent in February, following a 0.5 per cent increase in January. The growth was driven by services-producing sectors (+0.2 per cent), led by growth in rail, air, and pipeline transportation. Residential construction activity fell by 0.5 per cent, declining for the fourth consecutive month following a burst of activity in the summer and fall of 2023. Cooler home sales caused GDP from offices of real estate agents and brokers to fall 1.9 per cent last month, undoing some of the growth in December and January. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was essentially unchanged in March.

Amid cooling inflation and weakening labour markets, February's rather soft GDP report provides additional support for the broadly anticipated beginning of rate cuts in June. Although growth appeared strong in January, this was largely due to the conclusion of public sector strikes in Quebec, which caused a temporary boost to growth. Meanwhile, February's growth came in cooler than expected and the preliminary estimate for March is for zero growth. Markets currently expect the Bank to make its first overnight rate cut since early 2020 at its next meeting on June 5th. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-february-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

After falling more than 2 per cent in January, retail sales in BC were up 1.2 per cent in February and were up 2.6 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 0.2 per cent from the prior month and were up 4.2 from February 2023. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-february-2024-april-24-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

In a small village nestled between a forest and the hills, there lived an old man known for his wisdom. One evening, as the sun painted the sky with hues of orange and purple, he sat outside his quaint cottage with his young grandson, who always yearned for his stories and lessons about life. 

"Grandfather," the boy said, "tell me, what is the most important lesson for a person to learn?"

The man looked deeply into his grandson's eyes and said softly, "The one you feed, my child. The one you feed.

The darkness wolf may seem strong and overpowering at times, and it's easy to feed it with our fears and anger. But the light wolf, though sometimes harder to nurture, has the power to fill our lives with meaning and joy."

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, up from a 2.8% increase in February. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose by 0.3 per cent in March. The slight uptick in headline CPI was largely due to rising gasoline prices. Excluding energy costs, CPI rose 2.8 per cent year-over-year in March, down from 2.9 per cent in February. Shelter costs remain the major driver of inflation with mortgage interest costs up 25.4 per cent and rent up 8.5 per cent from the same time last year in March. Excluding shelter, consumer prices rose just 1.5 per cent, year over year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent year-over-year, up from 2.6 per cent in February. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 2.8 and 3.1 per cent per cent year-over-year in March. 

Inflation ticked slightly higher as expected in March due to rising gasoline prices, however the big surprise in this morning's data was the continued fall in the Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation. Both CPI median and CPI trim were not only down an a 12-month basis but fell to well under 2 per cent when measured on a 3-month basis and to just over 2 per cent on a 6-month basis. Not only is core inflation falling, but it has become more and more clear that inflation in Canada is almost entirely a shelter driven phenomenon. Excluding the rising costs of rents and mortgages, not only is inflation falling, its negative when measured at a 3 and 6-month horizon. If the Bank of Canada is looking for a case to lower its policy rate in June, this report provides ample evidence in support of that move. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-march-2024-april-16-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, BC – April, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,460 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in March 2024, a decline of 9.5 per cent from March 2023. The average MLS^® residential price in BC in March 2024 was up 6.5 per cent at $1.02 million, compared to an average price of $958,051 in March 2023. The total sales dollar volume was $6.6 billion, a decrease of 3.6 per cent from the same time the previous year.  

"March capped off a slow start to the first quarter of 2024," said BCREA Chief Economist, Brendon Ogmundson. "Despite a steep decline in fixed mortgage rates, buyers appear to be waiting on the Bank of Canada to lower its policy rate before jumping back into the market."
 
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 13 per cent to $15.8 billion, compared with the same period in 2023. Residential unit sales were up 6.4 per cent to 15,938 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 6.5 per cent to $995,149.  

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that while the Canadian economy appears to have entered into a phase of excess supply, it expects growth in the Canadian economy to pick up this year and next. On inflation, the Bank cited that inflation is still too high and risks remain, and that shelter inflation is still very elevated. However, both CPI and core inflation have eased in recent months and 3-month annualized measures suggest downward momentum. The Bank will continue to look for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained. 

There is now a widely held belief in financial markets that today's rate hold by the Bank of Canada will be its last before embarking on a series of rate cuts starting in June. There is also mounting evidence that this is the correct course of action. Jobs data from March showed that the Canadian unemployment rate reached its highest level in three years and inflation is well below target once housing costs are removed. Given that housing costs are rising as a function of the Bank's tight monetary policy and its effects on mortgage rates and new home supply, it would be wise for the Bank to look past rising shelter inflation when setting the future course of monetary policy. We expect that the Bank will lower rates 3 to 4 times this year in 25 bps increments with 2.5 per cent as the ultimate destination for the overnight rate by the end of 2025. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-t2jwyc4jb8

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The number of Metro Vancouver homes listed for sale on the MLS® rose nearly 23 per cent year-over-year, providing more opportunity for buyers looking for a home this spring.

Learn more at www.GVRealtors.ca

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment was essentially unchanged from the prior month in March, remaining at 20.401 million. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 5.1 per cent year-over-year to $34.81 last month, while total hours worked were up 0.7 per cent from March of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.2 per cent to 2.848 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver was essentially unchanged at 1.616 million in March. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 points in BC to 5.5 per cent while rising in Metro Vancouver by 0.6 points to 5.6 per cent last month. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-march-2024-april-5th-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.