To view the full interactive BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.

To view the BCREA Housing Forecast PDF, click here.

BCREA 2025 Second Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – April 2025. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2025 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) residential sales in BC are forecast to fall 1.1 per cent to 73,650 units this year. In 2026, MLS^® residential sales are forecast to move slightly higher, rising 8.8 per cent to 80,150 units.

“Hopes for a return to normalcy in the BC housing market were swiftly dashed this year, upended by a pointless and mutually destructive trade war,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While there is significant pent-up demand in the market, uncertainty about the direction of the economy is holding that demand back.”

With slower sales, provincial resale inventory is likely to average above 40,000 listings for the first time in over a decade. As a result, we expect average prices in some regions or market segments to face some downward pressure. Overall, however, we forecast largely flat average prices as sellers wait out the current environment.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Canadian real GDP decreased by 0.2 per cent in February, following a 0.4 per cent increase in January. Service-producing industries declined by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries fell by 0.6 per cent. Twelve out of twenty major industries contracted from the previous month, driven by mining, quarrying, and oil/gas extraction (-2.5 per cent), construction (-0.5 per cent), and transportation/warehousing (-1.1 per cent). Finally, GDP for real-estate offices and agents was down 10.4 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP increased by 0.1 per cent in March.

After a strong beginning to the year, February's GDP data pulled Canadian economic growth below the Bank of Canada's most recent quarterly projection. Additionally, this report captures newly introduced tariffs into the Canadian economic landscape, hence painting a bleak outlook for the subsequent months. During their previous meeting, the Bank emphasized the inflationary risks of tariffs while suggesting patience on policy rate adjustments according to how prices evolve. In a highly volatile environment, the Bank will closely follow next month's CPI and GDP reports to guide its next decision in June. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-february-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian retail sales decreased by 0.4 per cent to $69.3 billion in February compared to the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 4.7 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 0.5 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales decreased by 0.4 per cent in February.

Retail sales in British Columbia were down 0.6 per cent in February from the previous month and rose by 4.4 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 0.9 per cent from the prior month and 6.0 per cent above the level of February 2024.

February's report marks a second consecutive month of slower sales after several months of retail growth during the fall and winter. As tariffs and their associated uncertainty continue transmitting into the economy, central bankers and economists alike will closely monitor whether this downward trend continues into the summer. 

A market made for buyers is missing buyers. Prices have eased from recent highs, mortgage rates are among the lowest we’ve seen in years, and there are more active listings on the MLS® than we’ve seen in almost a decade. Sellers also appear ready to engage — but buyers aren’t showing up. With the current global economic uncertainty, only time will tell if they show up as they typically do in the coming months.

Read March MLS® Market Report to learn more: https://www.gvrealtors.ca/market-watc...

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts fell by 3 per cent to 214,155 units in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 12 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were unchanged from last month at 49,667 units, while multi-family and other starts dropped by 4 per cent to 164,484 units (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts rose by 5 per cent from last month to 31,145 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose by 3 per cent to 3,866 units, while multi-family starts increased by 6 per cent to 25,302 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 12 per cent below the levels from March 2024. Year-to-date starts are up by 122 per cent in Abbotsford, while being down by 48 per cent in Nanaimo, 37 per cent in Vancouver, 36 per cent in Kelowna, and 33 per cent in Victoria.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-march-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, down from a 2.6 per cent increase in February. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI was unchanged in March. The overall slowdown in headline CPI is largely driven by lower gasoline prices, with the CPI ex-gasoline rising by 2.5 per cent in March. Shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 7.9 per cent, marking the nineteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Similarly, rent was up 5.1 per cent year-over-year in March, down from 5.8 per cent in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year, down from 3.0 per cent in February. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, are at 2.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

After a sharp uptick in February, March's CPI report saw headline inflation moderate towards the neutral range of 2.0 per cent. However, the Bank's core measures of inflation continue to linger near the ceiling of their target range, suggesting some underlying upward pressure in prices. Nonetheless, markets remain uncertain about the Bank's decision on Wednesday as Canada braces for the inflationary impacts of tariffs. This report slightly favours the odds of a 25-point rate cut on Wednesday to pre-emptively brace the economy for the damage caused by tariffs.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-march-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.75 per cent this morning.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada. The Bank sees two potential scenarios for the Canadian economy, either high but limited tariffs that temporarily weaken growth or a protracted trade war that causes both a full recession and inflation to rise above 3 per cent. The Bank is already seeing signs of a slower economy due to the impact of uncertainty on consumer and business confidence, but expects tariff driven supply chain disruptions will put upward pressure on prices later this year. Perhaps most importantly, the  Bank ended its statement with the following: "Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians."

Improvement in the rate environment over the past year was starting to provide a jolt to home sales prior to Trump’s tariff announcements, and the swirling uncertainty around each successive tariff announcement has further clouded the economic outlook. The Bank of Canada’s most recent messaging has been focused on concern with the inflationary effects of tariffs, and those concerns may somewhat constrain the Bank’s ability to lower rates further even in the face of a weakening economy. Moreover, financial market volatility has pushed US government bond yields higher, which is also putting some upward pressure on Canadian interest rates. The 5-year bond yield, while volatile, has been on an uptrend that, if sustained, will lead to slightly higher 5-year fixed mortgage rates.

Read more about the outlook for mortgage rates here: Mortgage Rate Forecast - British Columbia Real Estate Association

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – April 2025. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 5,917 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) Systems in March 2025, down 9.6 per cent from March 2024. The average MLS^® residential price in BC in March 2025 was down 4.8 per cent at $963,323 compared to $1,011,965 in March 2024.

The total sales dollar volume was $5.7 billion, a 13.9 per cent decrease from the same time the previous year. BC MLS^® unit sales were 35 per cent lower than the ten-year March average.

“Buyers continued to shift back to the sidelines in March,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The economic uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs on Canadian goods has some potential buyers hesitant, particularly in the province’s larger markets.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 8.1 per cent to $14.5 billion, compared with the same period in 2024. Residential unit sales are down 5.2 per cent year-over-year at 15,160 units, while the average MLS^® residential price is also down 3.1 per cent to $959,400.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment fell by 0.2 per cent from the previous month, declining by 33,000 jobs to 20.962 million in March. The employment rate fell by 0.2 points to 60.9 per cent, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to 6.7 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $36.05 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.2 per cent compared to March of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. rose by 0.2 per cent to 2.944 million, gaining 5,700 jobs in March. Employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.4 per cent to 1.711 million in March. The unemployment rate in B.C. increased by 0.1 points to 6.1 per cent in March. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate fell by 0.6 points to 6.4 per cent in the third month of the year. 

March's jobs report may foreshadow an ongoing downturn in the Canadian labour market as tariff impacts begin permeating through the economy. While this report slightly favours a rate cut, we expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate before evaluating the inflationary impacts of our trade war with the U.S. and their newly announced "reciprocal" tariff policy on 185 other countries. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-march-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.