About BCREA’s Housing Monitor Dashboard

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include: 

• Resale Home Market

• Construction

• Rental Market

• Borrowing Costs

• Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian retail sales rose 0.6 per cent to $67.6 billion in October from the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 1.5 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 0.2 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales were unchanged in October.

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.9 per cent in October month-over-month and up 1.5 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.1 per cent from the prior month and 1.1 per cent higher than October 2023.

October's retail sales demonstrate a recovery in Canadian retail activity over the past few months as the Bank continues cutting toward its neutral range. The Bank of Canada will hope that Canadian retail growth serves as a proxy for next week's GDP report as it seeks guidance on whether the economy is rebounding in accordance with its 2025 forecast. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-october-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the full interactive BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast, click here.
Download the full report (PDF)

Highlights:

• Bond markets searching for clarity on the outlook for growth and inflation as tariffs loom.

• Tariffs on Canadian imports to the US could mean a loss of 1 to 5.5 per cent of real GDP.

The Bank of Canada might be done with jumbo cuts, but is likely to continue cutting. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in October. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI increased by 0.1 points in November. Excluding gasoline, the CPI was unchanged at 2.0 per cent in November. Overall shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 13.2 per cent, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Conversely, rent was up 7.7 per cent in November year-over-year, up from 7.3 per cent in October. In spite of accelerating rent price growth, total shelter costs rose 4.6 per cent in November, down from 4.8 per cent in October. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.4 per cent in October. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained unchanged at 2.6 and 2.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Canada's CPI report for November marks a stabilization around the midpoint of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range. With CPI ex-gasoline remaining relatively steady, November's headline CPI is likely driven by tailwinds from Black Friday and other related sales which partially accounted for lower prices and higher consumption across several sub-sectors. In spite of this stimulus, many of the special aggregate CPIs published by Statistics Canada remained either unchanged or slightly decelerated, indicating lingering weaknesses in consumer spending. Moving into the new year, the Bank has emphasized concerns of decelerating inflation as much as movement in the opposite direction. Given our trade uncertainties with the incoming American administration, coupled with an underperforming economy, the Bank will monitor the last monthly GDP report of 2024 to set the stage for their agenda heading into 2025, namely, the speed and depth at which they continue cutting the overnight. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-november-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts rose 8 per cent to 262,433 units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 25 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were 3 per cent higher from last month at 60,781 units, while multi-family and other starts rose by 10 per cent to 201,661 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts rose 18 per cent from last month to 50,447 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts were mostly unchanged at 4,586 units, while multi-family starts rose by 23 per cent to 44,002 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 28 per cent above the levels from November 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts are up by 46 per cent in Kelowna, while being down by 14 per cent in Vancouver, 16 per cent in Victoria, 8 per cent in Abbotsford, and 7 per cent in Nanaimo. 

Canadian Housing Starts (November 2024)

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, BC – December 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 5,841 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) Systems in November 2024, up 25.7 per cent from November 2023. The average MLS^® residential price in BC in November 2024 was up 1.7 per cent at $979,221 compared to an average price of $963,143 in November 2023. 

The total sales dollar volume was $5.7 billion, a 27.8 per cent increase from the same time the previous year. BC MLS^® unit sales were 12 per cent lower than the ten-year average for November.

“Home sales across the province continued the normalizing trend that began in October,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The surge in activity this fall sets up 2025 for a much stronger start than we’ve seen in the last two years.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is up 1.6 per cent to $68.6 billion, compared with the same period in 2023. Residential unit sales are up 0.8 per cent year-over-year at 69,983 units, while the average MLS^® residential price is also up 0.8 per cent to $980,055.
For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight policy rate by 50 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, bringing it from 3.75 to 3.25 per cent.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that GDP growth in the second half of the year is falling below forecast and the unemployment rate has ticked slightly higher and cited the possibility of tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States as increasing uncertainty and clouding the economic outlook.  The Bank expects that inflation will average close to its 2 per cent target over the next couple of years. Finally, the Bank stated that after substantial reductions in the policy rate in reaction to softer growth, going forward it will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. 

With both the economy and inflation undershooting the Banks expectations, policymakers appear eager to get the economy back on a path to recovery, particularly with risks looming large in 2025.  The Bank has now lowered its overnight rate to the top-end of what it considers "neutral" for the economy but, considering the trajectory of the economy, it will likely have to continue cutting. Where the Bank’s policy rate ends up depends on how serious to take threats of punitive tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. We anticipate that, for now, the Bank will cut to either 2.5 or 2.75 per cent early in 2025 and then pause to assess the state of the economy and the need for further stimulus. 

link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-vnf7q26fem

Canadian employment rose by 0.2 per cent from the previous month, growing by 51,000 jobs to 20.647 million in November. The employment rate remained unchanged at 60.6 per cent, while the unemployment rate rose 0.3 points to 6.8 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 4.1 per cent year-over-year to $35.68 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.9 per cent from November of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. was largely unchanged, slightly rising to 2.830 million, with a gain of 1,400 jobs in November. Employment in Metro Vancouver fell 0.2 per cent to 1.603 million in November. The unemployment rate in B.C. fell by 0.1 points to 5.7 per cent in November. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points from last month to 6.3 per cent.

November's employment statistics are highlighted by the largest monthly increase in the unemployment rate since January 2017 (excluding 2020 and 2021 due to COVID). In addition, employment gains were largely driven by public sector growth (+1.0 per cent), while private sector employment remained relatively unchanged. Weaknesses in overall hiring activity, along with a sharp escalation in the unemployment rate, demonstrate that the Canadian labour market is cooler than the Bank of Canada had anticipated at this stage. Coupled with an underperforming quarterly GDP report last week, most signs point towards another jumbo cut by the Bank of Canada to close out 2024. As we move into the new year, the Bank hopes to reignite the economy and labour market through heightened consumer and business spending.  

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the full interactive BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator, click here.
To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator fell 0.2 points to 145.6 in the third quarter of 2024, while the six-month moving average also fell to 145.7. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, the index was up 0.3 per cent.

Third Quarter Highlights

The economic activity index declined in Q3 by 0.2 points. Contraction in this index was broad-based, with inflation-adjusted retail trade (-0.3 per cent), wholesale trade (-0.7 per cent), and manufacturing sales (-0.3 per cent) falling from the previous quarter.

Office employment (financial, insurance, real estate, and professional services) fell by 3.3 per cent in the third quarter, while manufacturing employment increased by 0.8 per cent. The overall employment component declined by 0.6 points from the previous quarter, contributing negatively to the index.

The financial component of the index increased in the third quarter by 0.7 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices rose by 10.2 per cent, pushing the component up. Conversely, interest rate spreads increased from the previous quarter, indicating more perceived short-term risk in the economy. However, this effect only partially offsets the strong increase in REIT prices, leading to a net positive impact on commercial activity for the overall component.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.