The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. The image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

You can check about "Resale Home Market", "New Listings", "Sales by Region", "Average Price by Region", "House Price Index by Region", "Sales to Active Listings Ratio by Region", "Starts, Under Construction, & Completions", "Months to Complete by Property Type",  "Average New Rental Rates", "Discount Mortgage Rate", "BCREA Nowcast", "Commercial Leading Indicator", "British Columbia In-Flow Migration Map"... from here.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: Housing Monitor Dashboard - British Columbia Real Estate Association (bcrea.bc.ca)

The BCREA Nowcast estimate of provincial economic growth (expressed as year-over-year growth in real GDP) for May is 1.6 per cent. For comparison, year-over-year growth in the Canadian economy in May was 1.9 per cent. The preliminary estimate for June shows a decline in year-over-year growth to just 1.4 per cent, the slowest rate of growth measured since February 2021. 

The BCREA Nowcast now includes regional growth trends grouped into five regions: Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, Thompson Okanagan, Kootenay, and the North.

Download the full report (PDF)

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian real GDP rose 0.3 per cent from the prior month in May, following a 0.1 per cent increase in April. Goods-producing sectors of the economy declined 0.3 per cent while services-producing sectors rose 0.5 per cent. Effected by forest fires, Canada's energy sector declined 2.1 per cent in May. Construction activity contracted 0.8 per cent, driven primarily by lower residential building construction. Offices of real estate agents and brokers rose 7.6 per cent, led by higher home reselling activity in Canada's major cities. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 4 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy declined 0.2 percent in June.

The headline GDP figure was solid in May as the ending of the federal worker's strike boosted growth, despite rising interest rates and wildfires dragging on the economy. While growth in May came in at 0.3 per cent, the preliminary estimate of a slowdown in June suggests an easing of growth in the second quarter of 2023, estimated at 1 per cent on an annualized basis. So far in 2023, the Canadian economy has managed to avoid a significant slowdown or recession, but a further slowing of GDP and labour markets is widely expected in the second half of the year. The softening in GDP and inflation in recent months may provide support for a slowing or pause in rate hikes going forward, but the Bank will be watching closely to ensure inflation continues easing into the fall. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-may-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian retail sales increased 0.2 per cent in May to $66 billion, led by sales of motor vehicles and parts as well as food and beverage. However, excluding volatile items like car sales, retail sales were essentially unchanged month-over-month. In BC, retail sales jumped 2.7 per cent, rising for a third consecutive month and were up 1.9 per compared to 1-year ago.

Although BC retail spending has ticked higher in recent months, overall Canadian retail sales were up just 0.5 per cent compared to this time last year and preliminary estimates for June show flat sales. This could signal that consumer spending is finally slowing down following a year of aggressive tightening by the Bank of Canada. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-may-2023-july-21-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts rose 41 per cent to 281,373 units in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 4 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 1 per cent to 55,552 units, while multi-family and others rose 55 per cent to 225,817 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts rose by 61 per cent in June to 65,904 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 2 per cent m/m to 6,402 units while multi-family starts rose 76 per cent to 57,241 units. Starts in the province were 17 per cent above the levels from June 2022. Month over month, starts were up by 19k in Vancouver, 4.3k in Victoria, and 2.6k in Kelowna, while declining by 1.3k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend rose 2.7 per cent to 51.4k in BC. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-june-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June, down from 3.4 per cent in May. While declines occurred in several categories, the largest contribution was from lower gasoline prices compared to the same month last year (-21.6 per cent). Ignoring gasoline, year-over-year inflation would have been 4 per cent in June. Shelter costs were up 4.8 per cent year over year, driven by much higher mortgage interest costs (up 30.1 per cent from last year) along with higher rents (up 5.8 per cent from June 2022). The homeowner's replacement cost, which tracks home prices, was down 0.7 per cent year over year. Grocery prices were up 9.1 per cent year over year. Month over month, CPI rose 0.1 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent year-over-year.

The CPI continued to cool in June, with year-over-year prices rising at the slowest rate since March 2021, and now within the Bank of Canada's target of 1 to 3 per cent. Much lower gasoline prices compared to the same time last year are doing much of this work, but recovering supply chains also contributed, with furniture and household appliances both on average cheaper than the same time last year. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, are trending downwards and are now mostly below 4 per cent year-over-year. CPI is being pulled down by energy costs, household operations and furnishings, and clothing costs. In the other direction, food, shelter, and mortgage costs are dragging the CPI upwards. Taken together, that this month's headline inflation figure is within the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent target is excellent news and provides support for the Bank to ease off rate tightening going forward. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-june-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Continuing the trend that has emerged in the housing market this year, the benchmark price for all home types in Metro Vancouver increased in June as home buyer demand butted up against a limited inventory of homes for sale in the region.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, BC – July 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,740 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in June 2023, an increase of 21.9 per cent from June 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $991,648, up 4.7 per cent compared to June 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $8.7 billion, representing a 27.6 per cent increase from the same time last year. 

“June home sales continued to outperform expectations, following a very strong rebound in May,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, rising interest rates will likely dampen home sales activity in coming months.”

Active listings in the province were above 30,000 units for the first time since September 2022, but were still down 1.2 per cent compared to this time last year, and essentially flat month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
 
Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 26.1 per cent to $39.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 21.1 per cent to 40,381 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was down 6.4 per cent to $976,885.

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy has been stronger than expected but is expected slow as higher interest rate work their way through the economy.  On inflation, the Bank cited the recent easing of inflation to 3.4 per cent but also noted that core inflation continues to run a at 3 to 4 per cent pace and has been more persistent than anticipated.  The Bank now forecasts a return to its 2 per cent target in mid-2025 rather than in 2024. 

While inflation has come down significantly in the past year, the economy seems somewhat impervious to the Bank's efforts to slow it down. The labour market continues to add jobs at a robust pace, consumer spending was brisk during the first quarter and the housing market remains unexpectedly strong. Although the impact of rate increases can take time to be felt, we should be seeing some signs of a slowing economy emerge relatively soon. However, the likelihood of an impending recession and a related fall in interest rates now seem to fading, meaning homebuyers and homeowners may need to wait until next year for any mortgage relief. Indeed, 5-year bond yields are now near 4 per cent for the first time since 2007 which has driven 5-year fixed mortgage rates to their highest point this year.  The Bank's statement suggests it may be on pause at 5 per cent, though further rate increases could be on the horizon if the economy continues to out-perform expectations. 

link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-u0thlemdkn

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, B.C. – June, 2023 – Commercial real estate sales and dollar volumes had a slow start to 2023, with year-over-year declines across all property types.

There were 273 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in Q1 2023, a 58.1 per cent decrease from 651 sales in Q1 2022, according to data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $1.483 billion in Q1 2023, a 64.8 per cent decrease from $4.213 billion in Q1 2022.

“Not to sound like a broken record, but it’s hard to ignore the cooling impact higher borrowing costs have had on transactions in the real estate market overall, and the commercial market remains no exception,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s Director of Economics and Data Analytics, said. “With a 0.25 per cent hike to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in June, and the possibility of another 0.25 per cent hike in July, relief doesn’t appear to be on the near-term horizon. That said, the silver lining is that inflation is heading in the right direction and is finally nearing the Bank of Canada’s target range of one to three per cent, suggesting that the need for any dramatic increases to the policy rate from here on is unlikely.”

Q1 2023 activity by category

Land: There were 86 commercial land sales in Q1 2023, which is a 60.7 per cent decrease from the 219 land sales in Q1 2022. The dollar value of land sales was $896 million in Q1 2023, a 62 per cent decrease from $2.356 billion in Q1 2022.

Office and Retail: There were 113 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in Q1 2023, which is down 53.7 per cent from the 244 sales in Q1 2022. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $172 million in Q1 2023, a 78.8 per cent decrease from $811 million in Q1 2022.

Industrial: There were 63 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q1 2023, which is a 58.6 per cent decrease from the 152 sales in Q1 2022. The dollar value of industrial sales was $322 million in Q1 2023, a 50.7 per cent decrease from $653 million in Q1 2022.

Multi-Family: There were 11 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q1 2023, which is down 69.4 per cent from 36 sales in Q1 2022. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $93 million in Q1 2023, a 76.3 per cent decrease from $392 million in Q1 2022.

Download the Q1 2023 Commercial Stats Package.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.