Canadian real GDP decreased by 0.1 per cent in May, following a 0.1 per cent decrease in April. Service-producing industries remained unchanged, while goods-producing industries edged down by 0.1 per cent. Thirteen out of twenty major industries contracted from the previous month, led by broad-based decreases in retail trade (-1.2 per cent), mining, quarrying, and oil and gas (-1.0 per cent) and public administration (-0.2 per cent). Conversely, both the manufacturing (0.7 per cent) and transportation/warehousing (0.6 per cent) sectors grew following contractions in April. Finally, GDP for real estate offices and agents was up 3.5 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP increased by 0.1 per cent in June while remaining unchanged for the second quarter of 2025.

May's GDP data points to continued weakness through the second quarter, as the impact of tariffs continues to filter through the Canadian economy. Following another rate hold yesterday, the Bank of Canada reiterated its concern about propelling core inflation beyond its already elevated level through monetary policy. Therefore, even in the face of ongoing negative growth, the Bank will likely need to see trimmed and median inflation moderate toward its midpoint before cutting the overnight rate. With that being said, attention now shifts towards August's CPI and GDP prints, which will illustrate how the Canadian economy performed in the second quarter relative to the Bank's most recent projections—a comparison that will heavily influence its next policy decision in mid-September.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-may-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

About BCREA’s Housing Monitor Dashboard

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include: 

• Resale Home Market

• Construction

• Rental Market

• Borrowing Costs

• Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.75 per cent this morning.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that US tariffs are disrupting trade overall, but the economy is showing some resilience. That said, GDP likely declined by 1.5% in the second quarter as the tariff driven import behaviour by US firms that spurred Canadian exports in the first quarter reversed in the second quarter. Moreover, uncertainty is restraining business and household spending, and labour market conditions are weakening in sectors affected by trade. On inflation, the Bank sees underlying inflation trending around 2.5% but with risks of upward pressure due to tariffs.

Without the added risk of tariff driven inflation, the Bank of Canada would almost certainly be lowering rates in response to a clearly weakening economy that is showing signs of excess supply. However, core inflation continues to trend out of the Bank of Canada's comfort zone on both a 12-month and 3-month basis and the possibility of escalating tariffs is prompting the Bank to be extra cautious. While we expect the Bank will lower rates at its September meeting, that call is at odds with financial markets that are currently pricing in a 2.75% overnight rate for the remainder of the year.  Those expectations are being reflected in 5-year bond yields, which have been trending solidly over 3% for the last week which unfortunately will put some upward pressure on 5-year fixed mortgage rates.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, BC – July 2025. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,162 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS® ) Systems in June 2025, up 1.3 per cent from June 2024.

The average MLS® residential price in BC in June 2025 was down 4.2 per cent at $954,065 compared to $995,614 in June 2024. The total sales dollar volume was $6.8 billion, a 3 per cent decrease from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 23 per cent lower than the ten-year June average.

“Many regional housing markets across BC remained resilient through the second quarter, with only the Lower Mainland falling below sales activity from the previous year,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Until broader uncertainties are resolved, we expect overall housing activity in the most expensive areas of the province to continue lagging behind other regions that have steadily recovered since the onset of tariff uncertainty.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 11 per cent to $34.2 billion, compared with the same period in 2024. Residential unit sales are down 7.1 per cent year-over-year at 35,847 units, while the average MLS® residential price is also down 4.2 per cent to $954,241.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts were largely flat from the previous month, totalling 283,734 units in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 18 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts increased by 1 per cent from last month to 56,645 units, while multi-family and other starts were flat at 227,086 units (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts rose by 72 per cent from last month to 67,029 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts increased by 1 per cent to 3,880 units, while multi-family starts rose by 85 per cent to 60,314 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 64 per cent above the levels from June 2024. Year-to-date starts are up 130 per cent in Abbotsford and 23 per cent in Victoria, but down 70 per cent in Nanaimo, 33 per cent in Kelowna, and 11 per cent in Vancouver. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-june-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment increased by 0.4 per cent from the previous month, gaining 83,000 jobs to 21.061 million in June. The employment rate rose 0.1 points to 60.9 per cent, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 points to 6.9 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.2 per cent year-over-year to $36.01 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.6 per cent compared to June of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. rose by 0.2 per cent to 2.968 million, gaining 5,000 jobs in June. Employment in Metro Vancouver rose by 1.1 per cent to 1.735 million in June. The unemployment rate in B.C. fell by 0.8 points to 5.6 per cent in June. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate similarly fell by 0.6 points to 5.8 per cent in the sixth month of the year.

June's jobs report marks the first meaningful increase in employment since January, breaking a trend of largely stagnant job creation in 2025. Notably, the vast majority of employment growth was concentrated in part-time positions, reflecting greater demand for temporary roles across many industries during the summer. Moreover, the Canadian labour market remains relatively weak, with the national unemployment rate hovering near its highest level since the pandemic. This report likely favours a neutral stance from the Bank of Canada and a rate hold at its meeting later this month, though resurgent tariff risks will complicate the Bank’s outlook. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-june-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Metro Vancouver home sales saw emerging signs of recovery in June – with sales registered on the MLS down 10% year-over-year – half the decline we saw in May.

Read our June MLS® Market Report to learn more: https://www.gvrealtors.ca/market-watc...

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.