Canadian real GDP was flat from the prior month in April, following a 0.1 per cent increase in March. Goods-producing sectors of the economy grew 0.1 per cent while services-producing sectors were flat. Construction activity rose 0.4 per cent as lower residential construction activity was offset by other subsectors, including engineering construction (+1.1 per cent). The real estate and rental leasing sector expanded 0.5 per cent in April as home sales rebounded. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.7 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy expanded 0.4 percent in May.

April's GDP read extends a trend of weak but positive growth since February. The strike of federal workers caused public sector GDP to decline 0.3 per cent in April and contributed to a solid rebound in May, estimated preliminarily at 0.4 per cent. Despite low growth, the economy remains relatively resilient given the headwinds of rising interest rates. Furthermore, given the widespread expectation of an imminent recession for at least the prior two quarters, that growth has been positive in all months of 2023 so far is an unexpectedly cheerful development. But monetary policy works with a long lag, and further slowing of GDP and labour markets are widely expected in the second half of the year. The Bank of Canada's goal is to guide inflation back down to 2 per cent without causing a prolonged contraction in GDP. So far, they have had considerable success, but the Bank will be watching closely to maintain this balance into the fall. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-april-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, down from 4.4 per cent in March. The decline was mostly driven by lower gasoline prices from this time last year (-18.3 per cent). Month over month, CPI rose 0.4 per cent, in large part due to higher mortgage interest and traveler accommodation costs. Shelter costs were up 4.7 per cent year over year, driven by much higher mortgage interest costs (up 29.9 per cent from last year) along with higher rents (up 5.7 per cent from May 2022). The homeowner's replacement cost, which tracks home prices, was down 0.1 per cent year over year. Grocery prices were up 9 per cent year over year, down from 9.1 per cent last month. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.4 per cent year-over-year.

After unexpectedly hot inflation in April, the CPI cooled in May, with year-over-year prices rising at the slowest rate since June 2021. Much lower gasoline prices compared to the same time last year are doing much of this work, but recovering supply chains also contributed, with furniture and household appliances both on average cheaper than the same time last year. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, are trending downwards and are now mostly below 4 per cent year-over-year. Despite this progress, other components of the CPI remain stubbornly high, particularly food and shelter costs. Excluding energy prices, the CPI was up 4.6 per cent from last year, a rate that is still well beyond the Bank's target. In the context of solid GDP growth, a robust labour market, and a rebounding housing market, financial markets expect that the Bank will raise its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points to 5 per cent at its next meeting on July 12th. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-may-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the June 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast PDF, click here.

Highlights:

1. Stubborn inflation has rates rising again

2. How much longer can the economy shake off the impact of high interest rates?

3. The Bank of Canada is back on the move

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadianhousing starts fell 23 per cent to 202,494 units in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 28 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 3 per cent to 55,967 units, while multi-family and others fell 29 per cent to 146,528 (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts fell by 33 per cent in May to 40,536 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 7 per cent m/m to 6,207 units while multi-family starts fell 39 per cent to 32,010 units. Starts in the province were 3 per cent below the levels from May 2022. Starts were down by 22k in Vancouver, while rising by 0.6k in Victoria, 0.6k in Kelowna, and 1.7k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend fell 2.6 per cent to 49.9k in BC in November. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-may-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

or the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – June, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,191 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in May 2023, an increase of 9.9 per cent from May 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $1.02 million up 3 per cent compared to May 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $9.4 billion, representing a 13.2 per cent increase from the same time last year. 

“Home sales in May were surprisingly strong,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Normally we’d expect to see a more persistent, negative impact from the last year of rising interest rates on sales. Instead sales staged an early recovery in the spring returning to a normal pace of sales well ahead of schedule.”

The average home price in BC has now recovered much of the decline over the past year and is now back over $1 million for the first time since April 2022.
 
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 33.9 per cent to $30.8 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 28.1 per cent to 31,631 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was down 8.2 per cent to $973,085.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

While the year started slower than usual, Metro Vancouver’s housing market is showing signs of heating up as summer arrives, with prices increasing since December 2022.

Here's a summary of the May 2023 housing market statistics.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment fell by 0.1 per cent to 20.11 million in May. The Canadian unemployment rate rose to 5.2 per cent after holding steady at 5 per cent since December. A decline in employment of 77,000 for youths (aged 15 to 24) more than offset a 63,000 rise in employment for middle-aged workers (aged 25 to 54). Total hours worked were up 2.2 per cent year over year, while average hourly wages were up 5.1 per cent from May of last year.

Employment in BC was little changed in May, rising 0.1 per cent to 2.781 million, while rising by 0.7 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.575 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent in BC and fell to 4.9 per cent in Metro Vancouver. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-may-2023-june-9th-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.