Canadian real GDP decreased by 0.1 per cent in April, following a 0.2 per cent increase in March. Service-producing industries increased by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries fell by 0.6 per cent.  While twelve out of twenty major industries expanded from the previous month, decreases in overall growth were driven by broad-based contractions in manufacturing (-1.9 per cent) and wholesale trade (-1.9 per cent), both of which are highly integrated with the United States. Finally, GDP for real estate offices and agents was up 1.3 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP decreased by 0.1 per cent in April.

April's GDP data signifies a contraction in the Canadian economy to begin the second quarter. Additionally, this print captures the direct effects of tariffs through sharp declines in motor vehicle manufacturing and wholesale trade, as companies grapple with uncertainty over their potential exports to the United States. Negative growth in April reflects an unwinding of tariff-driven behaviour that boosted exports in the first quarter. While the Bank of Canada projected flat growth in the second quarter, this report—coupled with a projected contraction in May—favours a rate cut during its meeting in July. However, with core inflation remaining near its upper threshold, it remains uncertain whether the Bank will cut or hold its overnight rate. In a highly volatile environment, economists will closely follow next month's CPI and GDP reports for insights into which direction the Bank will take. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-april-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

About BCREA’s Housing Monitor Dashboard

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include: 

• Resale Home Market

• Construction

• Rental Market

• Borrowing Costs

• Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, matching the 1.7 per cent increase in April. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI was up 0.2 per cent in May. Downward pressure on headline CPI was largely driven by lower rent increases from the previous year, with shelter prices growing by 3.0 per cent in May, down from 3.4 per cent in April. In addition, the CPI ex-energy rose by 2.7 per cent in May. While shelter has historically been the main driver of inflation, food price growth has now outpaced shelter price growth for the second consecutive month, largely as a result of tariffs on many grocery items. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year in May, up from 2.0 per cent in April. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, are both at 3.0 per cent year-over-year.

May's CPI report, similar to the previous month, demonstrates lingering upward pressure on prices beyond the headline measure. On a 3-month annualized basis, the Bank of Canada's core measures of inflation remain at the upper end of their target range, largely due to the price impacts of tariffs on major components such as food. While both trimmed and median CPI fell from April, core inflation remains high enough that markets are uncertain about the Bank of Canada's direction at its next meeting. Friday's economic growth report will bear a strong impact on how the Bank proceeds in July, as they look to balance the inflationary risks of tariffs with ongoing weakness in the economy from trade uncertainty.
 
For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian retail sales increased by 0.3 per cent to $70.1 billion in April compared to the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 5.0 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 0.1 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales increased by 0.5 per cent in April.

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 1.7 per cent in April from the previous month and rose by 6.1 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 2.1 per cent from the prior month and were 9.0 per cent above the level of April 2024.

April's report demonstrates continued resilience in Canadian retail activity amidst global uncertainties, with core retail sales rising for a third consecutive month. Following its choice to hold earlier this month, the Bank of Canada will more closely follow this month's inflation and GDP reports to guide its next rate decision in July. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-april-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the full interactive BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast, click here. Download the full report (PDF)Highlights:

• Canadian mortgage rates have held steady amidst a volatile bond market.

• Economic growth patterns are being driven by tariff avoidance in the first quarter, but signs of slowing are emerging.

• The Bank of Canada remains on hold, but we expect rate cuts to resume in July.
  

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts were largely flat from the previous month, totalling 279,510 units in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 4 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts decreased by 6 per cent from last month to 55,161 units, while multi-family and other starts rose by 1 per cent to 224,350 units (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts fell by 29 per cent from last month to 37,455 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts increased by 2 per cent to 3,657 units, while multi-family starts fell by 33 per cent to 31,987 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 19 per cent below the levels from May 2024. Year-to-date starts are up 87 per cent in Abbotsford, but down 75 per cent in Nanaimo, 45 per cent in Kelowna, 23 per cent in Vancouver, and 12 per cent in Victoria.

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-may-2025

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, BC – June 2025 The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 6,945 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) Systems in May 2025, down 13.5 per cent from May 2024. The average MLS^® residential price in BC in May 2025 was down 4.2 per cent at $959,058 compared to $1,001,341 in May 2024.

The total sales dollar volume was $6.7 billion, a 17.1 per cent decrease from the same time the previous year. BC MLS^® unit sales were 26 per cent lower than the ten-year May average.

“All regions of BC have seen declining home sales activity through the first five months of the year with more expensive markets slowing the most,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Given that uncertainty is the main driver of the slowdown, we should see activity begin to recover as that uncertainty hopefully fades over the second half of the year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 12.8 per cent to $27.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2024. Residential unit sales are down 9 per cent year-over-year at 28,692 units, while the average MLS^® residential price is also down 4.2 per cent to $954,312.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

May saw inventory levels across Metro Vancouver reach another ten-year high, while home sales registered on the MLS® remained muted.

Read May MLS® Market Report to learn more: https://www.gvrealtors.ca/market-watc...

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment was virtually unchanged from the previous month, gaining 8,800 jobs to 20.978 million in May. The employment rate remained unchanged at 60.8 per cent, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to 7.0 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.4 per cent year-over-year to $36.14 last month, while total hours worked were up 0.9 per cent compared to May of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. rose by 0.4 per cent to 2.963 million, gaining 13,000 jobs in May. Employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.9 per cent to 1.715 million in May. The unemployment rate in B.C. increased by 0.2 points to 6.4 per cent in May. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate rose by 0.3 points to 6.6 per cent in the fifth month of the year.

May's jobs report echoes many of the same trends from the previous month, characterized by minimal job creation coupled with further upticks in the unemployment rate in B.C. and Canada. Overall, the Canadian labour market continues to stabilize at relatively weak levels, with the national unemployment rate reaching 7.0 per cent for the first time since September 2021. Following their decision to hold this week, this report favours a 25-point cut from the Bank of Canada during their next meeting in July to stimulate the labour market and broader economy amidst broader global uncertainties.For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate a 2.75 per cent this morning.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted US trade policy continues to create uncertainty in the global economy and that uncertainty is likely to slow economic growth in coming quarters. On inflation, the Bank cited stronger than expected inflation in April and survey data showing household inflation expectations rising due to tariffs as concerning trends in the evolution of inflationary pressures.

While we know with a high degree of certainty that trade wars are stagflationary – they slow growth, and raise prices - what we don't know yet is how severe a trade war may be or even if it will end up materializing at all. The immediate impact of that uncertainty is paralysis in decision making, both at the macro level of businesses looking to hire and invest and at the micro level of households thinking of buying or selling a home. Indeed, we are already seeing the impact of uncertainty in a slower labour market and slumping home sales.  Unfortunately, we are also seeing a pick-up in underlying inflation, with core measures of inflation registering above 3% on a 3-month annualized basis in recent months.  That combination of slowing growth and rising inflation puts the Bank in a very difficult position. That said, given rising unemployment and risk of a wider downturn, we believe that the Bank of Canada will, lower its policy rate at least one more time this year, likely at its next meeting July. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.