The Canadian economy rose 0.2% in January, up for the eighth consecutive month. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.8% while services-producing industries remained flat on Omicron-related restrictions. Canadian real GDP is roughly 0.4 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew 0.8% in February.

With a high preliminary estimate for February, the Canadian economy appears to be on a strong growth path as it emerges from the Omicron-related slowdown. The Bank of Canada has noted that the slack in the Canadian economy is largely absorbed, which is partly why it hiked rates from 0.25% to 0.5% in early March. Amid strong GDP growth and high inflation, the expectation is that the bank will again raise rates at its upcoming announcement on April 13th by another 0.25% or even 0.5%. BCREA forecasts that the bank will continue raising rates until the overnight policy rate reaches 1.75 per cent, the level which prevailed prior to the COVID-19 crisis.

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-real-gdp-january-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Read

In BC in January, home sales remained flat, while new listings rose and starts fell. Sales rose in all areas of the province except Northern BC and the Lower Mainland. Rental costs in Vancouver and Victoria remain broadly elevated relative to most other points since the onset of the pandemic. 

Retail sales in BC rose to a fresh record in January as Omicron waned and are now 14 per cent above February 2020 levels. As of March, restaurant reservations in Vancouver are at roughly 75 per cent of the pre-pandemic level. In BC, Google’s measure of movement trends is currently about 18 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

Although aggregate employment in BC has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, the accommodation and food service sector was about 13 per cent below the pre-pandemic level in February. The labour market has served high-income workers much better than low-income workers. Employment in high-income industries is about 10 per cent above pre-pandemic employment levels, while employment in low-income industries is about 6.5 per cent below pre-pandemic employment levels.

Manufacturing and exports edged up in January, while imports declined slightly. 

Consumer confidence declined slightly in February, while business confidence drifted sideways. 

The number of US and non-US tourists has been rising each month since restrictions were eased last summer, with US tourists reaching 58 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in December.    

For a more comprehensive overview of BC's economic recovery, click here.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Read

Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose 3.2% to $58.9 billion in January. The increase was driven by a rebound in sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+5.3%) and new car dealers (+5.5%). Sales rose in 9 of 11 subsectors of the economy. Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and vehicle and parts sales, increased 2.9% in January. In volume terms, sales were up 2.9%. 

In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales rose 4% in January. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 2.1% in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales rose 5.4% month-over-month and were up 11% year-over-year. 

In January, Canadian e-commerce sales declined 28% to 3.2 billion. As a result, e-commerce decreased from 6.9% of total retail sales in December to 6.3% in January. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. 



For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-january-2022

Read

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 5.7% on a year-over-year basis in February, up from 5.1% in January. This was the largest gain since August 1991 (+6.0%). According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 7.4% year over year, gasoline up 32.2%, and shelter costs up 6.6%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.7% year over year in February. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 3.5% year-over-year in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.7% year-over-year in February. 

Tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Canada should slow demand and help to bring inflation down, though that will take time and rising oil and commodity prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine presents a risk of high inflation persisting longer than expected. Volatility in global financial markets briefly interrupted the upward march of long-term interest rates, however bond markets are once again pricing in an aggressively inflation-fighting Bank of Canada. We expect the Bank will increase its overnight rate five more times over the next year, bringing its key policy rate to 1.75 per cent before pausing to assess the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.
For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.
Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-february-2022
Read

Canadian housing starts rose by 18.1k (7.9%) to 247.3k units in February at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were down from February of 2021 (7.4% y/y). Single-detached housing starts were largely unchanged from January at 78.1k, while multi-family and others rose 12% to 169.2k (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts were down 10.1% in February, falling to 35.5k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 3.1% m/m to 7.4k units while multi-family starts declined 15.1% to 23.9k units. Starts in the province were 21.9% below the levels from February 2021. Starts were down by 5.1k units in Vancouver, 0.5k in Kelowna, and 0.6k in Abbotsford, but rose 1.5k in Victoria from last month. The 6-month moving average trend declined 4.5% to 40.4k in BC in February. 


For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.
Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-february

Read

Vancouver, BC – March, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,902 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in February 2022, a decrease of 18.8 per cent from February 2021. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $1.109 million, a 24.9 per cent increase from $887,866 recorded in February 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $9.9 billion, a 1.5 per cent increase from the same time last year. 

“While sales are not keeping pace with the unprecedented level of activity we saw this time last year, demand continues to be quite strong,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “There are some encouraging signs that listings are recovering from historical lows, but there is a very long way to go before markets achieve balance.”
 
Provincial active listings were 19 per cent lower than this time last year with the total inventory of homes for sale in the province at just 16,000 units. That level of inventory is well below the roughly 40,000 listings needed for a balanced market.  

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Read

Canadian employment rose by 337,000 (+1.8%) in February more than reversing a 200,000 decline in January driven by Omicron-related public health measures, according to Statistics Canada. The labour market is increasingly tight, with the Canadian unemployment rate declining to 5.5%, a level lower than prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (5.7%) for the first time. The total hours worked (+3.6%) as well as the employment rate (+1.0%) also rose strongly.

As public health measures were partly lifted by the survey reference week in February, gains were concentrated in the Accommodation and Food Services (+114,000; +12.6%), and Information, Culture and Recreation (+73,000; +9.9%) sectors. Private sector employment rose by 2.8% to 347,000. On a year-over-year basis, wages were up 3.1%. The number of long-term unemployed Canadians fell by 51,000 (-19.4%) in February. 

In BC, employment rose more modestly than the rest of Canada (+21,000; 0.8%), but growth is very strong given that the province suffered no employment decline in January. Employment growth in February was concentrated in the Vancouver CMA (+18,000). Seasonally-adjusted employment in BC is not only above pre-pandemic levels, but hit a record high for a 5th consecutive month. The unemployment rate continued declining in BC, reaching 4.9%, the lowest rate since January 2020. Among the provinces, only Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have lower unemployment rates. 



For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.
Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-february-2022
Read

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell to 149.7 from 150.6 in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing the second consecutive decline since the economy began recovering from the recession induced by COVID-19. Compared to the same time in 2020, the index was up by 3.8 per cent.

The CLI dropped in the fourth quarter due to declines in the financial and employment components of the index. The decline in the employment component of the index was driven by a 4.1 per cent decline in finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) employment and a 6.2 per cent decline in professional services employment. Workers in sales and services occupations drove much of those declines, with workers in this subsector down 6 per cent from two years prior as the economy adjusts to the post-pandemic reality. The drop in the financial component of the index was driven by the rising spread between government and corporate borrowing rates. This spread on 3-month bonds jumped from 5 to 15 basis points in the fourth quarter as investors demanded higher risk-premia over government treasuries for lending to firms.

The economic component of the index was flat from the prior quarter. Although wholesale trade rose 0.7 per cent and manufacturing sales rose 1 per cent from quarter three, these were offset by a 0.8 per cent decline in retail trade. Ongoing supply chain disruptions, Omicron lockdowns and a shifting composition of consumer spending continues to hold down growth in these economic variables driving the CLI.

It is important to note that while the BC economy generally continues recovering strongly, the environment for commercial real estate remains highly abnormal and uncertain. Although the CLI was designed to interpret specific sectoral activity and employment growth as positive indicators for commercial real estate demand, the recent strong growth of these indicators may not translate as readily into improved conditions in the commercial real estate market relative to the pre-pandemic period.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Read

As widely expected, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate this morning to 0.5 per cent, an increase of 25 basis points. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has added a major new source of uncertainty to the global economy, and it expects the fallout to include upward pressure on inflation and possible supply disruptions. However, economic growth in Canada finished 2021 stronger than expected and persistently higher inflation increases the risk up a continued upward move in inflation expectations. As such, the Bank states that it believes interest rates will need to rise further.

The Bank must now contend with inflation and inflation expectations that are much higher than the Bank is comfortable with, while also monitoring the potential impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on financial markets and commodity prices.  While we expect the Bank will continue to tighten, ultimately bringing its overnight rate to 1.75 per cent by early 2023, there is clearly more uncertainty in the global economy now than when the Bank decided to embark on this tightening cycle. That uncertainty is already being reflected in long-term Canadian interest rates, with the once rapidly ascending 5-year Govt of Canada bond yield falling about 30 basis points in recent days. 


Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-m3zj4psoqd

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Read
Categories:   Albion, Maple Ridge Real Estate | April 2023 Newsletter | April Newsletter 2022 | Arbutus, Vancouver West Real Estate | August 2021 News | August 2022 Newsletter | August 2023 Newsletters | Bank | Blueridge NV, North Vancouver Real Estate | Brentwood Park, Burnaby North Real Estate | Brighouse South, Richmond Real Estate | Brighouse, Richmond Real Estate | British Properties, West Vancouver Real Estate | Burke Mountain, Coquitlam Real Estate | Burnaby Lake, Burnaby South Real Estate | Cambie, Vancouver West Real Estate | Canadian Employment | Canadian Inflation | Canyon Heights NV, North Vancouver Real Estate | Canyon Springs, Coquitlam Real Estate | Capitol Hill BN, Burnaby North Real Estate | Central Lonsdale, North Vancouver Real Estate | Central Park BS, Burnaby South Real Estate | Champlain Heights, Vancouver East Real Estate | Citadel PQ, Port Coquitlam Real Estate | Cloverdale BC, Cloverdale Real Estate | Coal Harbour, Vancouver West Real Estate | Collingwood VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | Coquitlam West, Coquitlam Real Estate | COVID-19 Recovery Dashboard | December 2021 Newsletter | December 2022 Newsletter | December 2023 Newsletter | Delta Manor, Ladner Real Estate | Downtown NW, New Westminster Real Estate | Downtown VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | Downtown, Vancouver West Real Estate | Dunbar, Vancouver West Real Estate | Eagle Harbour, West Vancouver Real Estate | East Burnaby, Burnaby East Real Estate | East Newton, Surrey Real Estate | East Richmond, Richmond Real Estate | Fairview VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | False Creek, Vancouver West Real Estate | February Newsletter 2022 | February Newsletter 2023 | February Newsletter 2024 | Forest Hills BN, Burnaby North Real Estate | Fraser VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | Fraserview NW, New Westminster Real Estate | Fraserview VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | GDP | Grandview VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | Grandview Woodland, Vancouver East Real Estate | Greentree Village, Burnaby South Real Estate | Hamilton RI, Richmond Real Estate | Hamilton, Richmond Real Estate | Hastings, Vancouver East Real Estate | Highgate, Burnaby South Real Estate | House Marketing | Housing Starts | Interest Rate | Ironwood, Richmond Real Estate | January Newsletter 2022 | January Newsletter 2023 | January Newsletter 2024 | July 2021 Newsletter | July 2022 Newsletter | July 2023 Newsletter | June 2022 Newsletter | June 2023 Newsletter | Killarney VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | Kitsilano, Vancouver West Real Estate | Knight, Vancouver East Real Estate | Letter From The Heart | Lions Bay, West Vancouver Real Estate | Lower Lonsdale, North Vancouver Real Estate | Maillardville, Coquitlam Real Estate | Main, Vancouver East Real Estate | March Newsletter 2022 | March Newsletter 2023 | March Newsletter 2024 | May 2022 Newsletter | May 2023 Newsletter | Meadow Brook, Coquitlam Real Estate | Metrotown, Burnaby South Real Estate | Mount Pleasant VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | Mount Pleasant VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | New Horizons, Coquitlam Real Estate | Newsletter November 2021 | North Coquitlam, Coquitlam Real Estate | North Vancouver Real Estate | November 2021 Newsletter | November 2022 Newsletter | November 2023 Newsletter | November Newsletter 2021 | October 2021 Newsletter | October 2022 Newsletter | October 2023 Newsletter | Pebble Hill, Tsawwassen Real Estate | Pictures and thoughts to share | Point Grey, Vancouver West Real Estate | Quay, New Westminster Real Estate | Queen Mary Park Surrey, Surrey Real Estate | Queensborough, New Westminster Real Estate | Quilchena, Vancouver West Real Estate | Richmond Real Estate | S.W. Marine, Vancouver West Real Estate | Sapperton, New Westminster Real Estate | September 2021 News | September 2022 Newsletter | September 2023 Newsletter | Silver Valley, Maple Ridge Real Estate | Simon Fraser Univer., Burnaby North Real Estate | Sold listings | South Granville, Vancouver West Real Estate | South Marine, Vancouver East Real Estate | South Slope, Burnaby South Real Estate | South Surrey White Rock Real Estate | Squamish Real Estate | Steveston South, Richmond Real Estate | Sullivan Heights, Burnaby North Real Estate | The Crest, Burnaby East Real Estate | Tsawwassen Central, Tsawwassen Real Estate | University VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | Upper Eagle Ridge, Coquitlam Real Estate | Uptown NW, New Westminster Real Estate | vancouver island Real Estate | Vancouver Real Estate | Victoria VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | Victoria VE, Vancouver West Real Estate | WALL CENTRE FALSE CREEK, Vancouver West Real Estate | West End VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | Westwood Plateau, Coquitlam Real Estate | Whalley, North Surrey Real Estate | Whalley, Surrey Real Estate | Willoughby Heights, Langley Real Estate | Yale - Dogwood Valley, Vancouver West Real Estate | Yaletown, Vancouver West Real Estate | Yel | Yelllow Newsletter July 2022 | Yellow Newletter December 2021 | Yellow Newletter June 2022 | Yellow Newsletter | Yellow Newsletter April 2022 | Yellow Newsletter April 2023 | Yellow Newsletter August 2021 | Yellow Newsletter August 2022 | Yellow Newsletter August 2023 | Yellow Newsletter December 2021 | Yellow Newsletter December 2022 | Yellow Newsletter December 2023 | Yellow Newsletter February 2022 | Yellow Newsletter February 2023 | Yellow Newsletter February 2024 | Yellow Newsletter January 2022 | Yellow Newsletter January 2023 | Yellow Newsletter January 2024 | Yellow Newsletter July 2022 | Yellow Newsletter July 2023 | Yellow Newsletter June 2022 | Yellow Newsletter June 2023 | Yellow Newsletter March 2022 | Yellow Newsletter March 2023 | Yellow Newsletter March 2024 | Yellow Newsletter May 2022 | Yellow Newsletter May 2023 | Yellow Newsletter November 2021 | Yellow Newsletter November 2022 | Yellow Newsletter November 2023 | Yellow Newsletter October 2021 | Yellow Newsletter October 2022 | Yellow Newsletter October 2023 | Yellow Newsletter October, 2021 | Yellow Newsletter September 2021 | Yellow Newsletter September 2022 | Yellow Newsletter September 2023
Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.