To view the full interactive BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.
To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell 3.2 points to 145.5 in the first quarter of 2024, while the six-month moving average fell to 146.5. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, the index was down by 1 per cent. 

First Quarter Highlights

• The economic activity index declined in Q1. Inflation-adjusted retail trade (-1.7 per cent), wholesale trade (-2.5 per cent), and manufacturing sales (-5.3 per cent) each fell from the previous quarter, pushing the economic component down.

• Office employment (financial, insurance, real estate, and professional services) fell by 0.4 per cent in the first quarter, while manufacturing employment declined by 1.3 per cent. The employment component declined from the previous quarter, contributing negatively to the index.

• The financial component of the index also declined in the first quarter. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices declined by 8.5 per cent, pushing the component down. However, interest rate spreads declined for a second consecutive month, indicating lower borrowing costs for companies relative to the government amid expectations of forthcoming rate cuts. This offset some of the effects of declining REIT prices on the CLI, but on net, the financial component was still slightly negative.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian retail sales fell 0.2 per cent to $66.4 billion in March. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 0.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales fell 0.4 per cent in March.

After rising more than 1 per cent in February, retail sales in BC were down by 0.4 per cent in March and were down by 0.4 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 0.1 per cent from the prior month and were up 1 from March 2023. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-march-2024-may-24-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April, down from a 2.9 per cent increase in March. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose by 0.2 per cent in April. The deceleration in headline CPI was driven by softening food, services, and durable goods prices, but was moderated by an uptick in gasoline prices (up 6.1 per cent year-over-year). Excluding energy costs, CPI rose 2.5 per cent year-over-year in April, down from 2.8 per cent in March. The shelter cost index remains the major driver of inflation with the rate of increases higher now (6.4 per cent) than they were this time last year (4.9 per cent). Mortgage interest costs were up 24.5 per cent and rent was up 8.2 per cent from the same time last year in April. Excluding shelter, consumer prices rose just 1.2 per cent, year over year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.9 per cent year-over-year, up from 2.7 per cent in March. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 2.6 and 2.9 per cent per cent year-over-year in March. 

Canada's inflation rate continued to trend in the right direction in April, hitting the slowest rate of appreciation since March 2021. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, CPI median and CPI trim, have now been below the 2 per cent target for two consecutive months when measured on a 3-month annualized basis. Food costs also appear to be normalizing, and the overall food price index is essentially at 2 per cent. The main problem within the CPI basket is now almost exclusively the shelter component; rent appreciation in particular is troublingly high and the rate of increase continues to rise. Excluding shelter from the CPI index and comparing prices on an annualized 3-month basis, price appreciation in Canada has been close to zero for about half a year. Overall, this report contained yet more good news on inflation and will support the Bank of Canada's case to lower its policy rate in June. The next rate announcement is on Wednesday, June 5th. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-april-2024-may-21-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts fell 0.8 per cent to 240,229 units in April at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 8 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 2 per cent from last month to 53,895 units, while multi-family and others fell 2 per cent to 186,335 units (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts fell 10 per cent from last month to 54,835 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 11 per cent to 3,923 units while multi-family starts dropped 12 per cent to 48,609 units. Starts in the province were 10 per cent below the levels from April 2023. Compared to the same time last year, starts were up by 83 per cent in Kelowna, 69 per cent in Abbotsford, and 525 per cent in Victoria. In Vancouver, starts were down by 30 per cent from April of 2023. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-april-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Actively listed homes for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver continued climbing in April, up 42 per cent year-over-year, breaching the 12,000 mark, a number not seen in the region since the summer of 2020. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – May, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,569 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in April 2024, an increase of 1.5 per cent from April 2023. The average MLS^® residential price in BC in April 2024 was up 1.4 per cent at $1 million, compared to an average price of $992,440 in April 2023. The total sales dollar volume was $7.6 billion, an increase of 3 per cent from the same time the previous year. 

"April was an above-average month for new listings activity, registering the highest pace since 2021," said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. "Sales are still slightly below normal, which has led to a substantial increase in total inventory, though at a level still far below long-run balance. Ultimately, the market is heading into the summer in a state of relative calm with much more choice for buyers."

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 9.5 per cent to $23.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2023. Residential unit sales were up 4.8 per cent to 23,507 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 4.5 per cent to $997,132. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment rose by 90,400, or 0.4 per cent, to 20.491 million in April. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 4.7 per cent year-over-year to $34.95 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.2 per cent from April of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.8 per cent to 2.871 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.7 per cent to 1.627 million in April. The unemployment rate fell 0.5 points in BC to 5 per cent while falling in Metro Vancouver by 0.3 points to 5.3 per cent last month. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-april-2024-may-10th-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.