Canadian GDP edged up by 0.1 per cent in August, following similar increases in June and July. Growth in services-producing industries (+0.3 per cent) offset declines in goods-producing industries (-0.3 per cent) as GDP grew in 14 of 20 subsectors. Canadian real GDP is roughly 2.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew again by 0.1 per cent in September. GDP from the offices of real estate agents and brokers dropped 2.1 per cent in August, the sixth consecutive decline, as rising interest rates continued to restrain home sales. 

GDP growth in recent months, though still positive, is showing signs of slowing. We are currently tracking Q3 real GDP growth at just 1.5 per cent, or about half the rate realized over the first half of 2022. That slowdown will likely continue as the Bank continues its tightening cycle, particularly in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. The Bank raised its overnight rate in October to 3.75 per cent and the final destination for the overnight rate may be around 4 per cent or above. However, with the rate now higher than the bank's estimate of the neutral rate, meaning monetary policy is no longer stimulative, increases in the overnight rate are expected to slow in subsequent announcements. 



Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-real-gdp-october-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

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The BCREA Housing Monitor Dashboard has replaced the COVID-19 Recovery Dashboard, providing more updated BC housing market data.

The BCREA Housing Monitor Dashboard has been updated with the latest data up to October 26, 2022. Click here to access the latest dashboard.

The Average Sale Price is the average price for all homes sold on the MLS® system during a particular month. In other words, this number is equivalent to the total dollar value of all sales (the sales volume) divided by the number of transactions. This number will change if the price of homes changes, but also if the composition of home sales changes—for instance, if buyers shift towards apartments rather than single-family homes, the Average Sale Price will fall (if all else remains the same).

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

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The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75 per cent, its highest level since 2008.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy continues to operate in excess demand and tight labour markets and as a result inflation remains elevated. Sharply higher interest rates are having a significant impact in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing, while softening global demand is weighing on exports. Consequently, the Bank expects economic growth to stall through the end of 2022 and into the first half of 2023, with real GDP growth of just 1 per cent next year. The Bank expects inflation to ease over the next year, falling to 3 per cent in 2023 and returning to the 2 per cent inflation target in 2024. However, given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, the Bank does expect that its policy rate will need to rise further. 

The Bank of Canada has not raised rates this aggressively since the early 1990s and its overnight rate is now well above the Bank's estimate of "neutral", or the level of its policy rate at which inflation should run at 2 per cent.. As such, the Banks is attempting to significantly slow the economy in order to bring inflation back to earth. It takes several quarters for rate increases to impact the broader economy, so the economic impact of the Bank's actions won't be fully felt until 2023. However, with mortgage rates at 5.5 per cent, the impact on the housing market is immediate and severe.  Interestingly, the Bank did note its expectation for the economy to stall  over the next 6 months. If that comes to pass and the economy is soon in a recession, and crucially if progress is made on bringing inflation down, it will be difficult for the Bank to keep its policy rate at current levels for an extended period.

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-5pwhuhdjo9

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

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Canadian housing starts rose by 29.2k (10.8 per cent) to 299.6k units in September at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were up from September of 2021 (19.3 per cent). Single-detached housing starts fell 1 per cent to 76.5k, while multi-family and others rose 16 per cent to 223.1k (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts increased by 10.9 per cent in September, rising to 54.3k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 18 per cent m/m to 8k units while multi-family starts rose 10 per cent to 42.1k units. Starts in the province were 50 per cent above the levels from September 2021. Starts were up by 8.8k in Vancouver and 1.3k in Abbotsford, but were down by 4.5k in Kelowna and 1.2k in Victoria. The 6-month moving average trend rose 7.7 per cent to 50.5k in BC in September. 


Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-september-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

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Vancouver, B.C. – September 15, 2022 – Activity in the Lower Mainland’s commercial real estate market edged down in the second quarter (Q2) of 2022 from the brisker pace experienced at the start of the year.

There were 485 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, a 34.3 per cent decrease from the 738 sales in Q2 2021, according to data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $3.265 billion in Q2 2022, a 12.2 per cent decrease from $3.719 billion in Q2 2021.

"With inflationary pressures driving interest rates and borrowing costs higher, commercial activity across most market segments has slowed since the start of the year,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics. “Land deals remain elevated relative to the last few years, which is unsurprising given the robust demand for new housing supply in the Lower Mainland.”

Q2 2022 activity by category

Land: There were 221 commercial land sales in Q2 2022, which is a 9.1 per cent decrease from the 243 land sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of land sales was $1.670 billion in Q2 2022, a 9.9 per cent decrease from $1.854 billion in Q2 2021.

Office and Retail: There were 143 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, which is down 48.9 per cent from the 280 sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $649 million in Q2 2022, a 25.4 per cent decrease from $870 million in Q2 2021.

Industrial: There were 93 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, which is a 49.2 per cent decrease from the 183 sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of industrial sales was $542 million in Q2 2022, a 12 per cent increase from $484 million in Q2 2021.

Multi-Family: There were 28 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, which is down 12.5 per cent from 32 sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $404 million in Q2 2022, a 20.9 per cent decrease from $511 million in Q2 2021.

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For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – October, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,977 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2022, a decrease of 45.8 per cent from September 2021. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $927,119, a 1.7 per cent increase from $912,008 recorded in September 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.6 billion, a 44.9 per cent decline from the same time last year. 

“Mortgage qualifying continues to be a significant hurdle for many potential buyers as interest rates rise,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “In addition, many trends that drove demand in smaller markets, such as remote work and the quest for affordable space, have faded in prominence. As a result, we see a stronger pullback in markets outside of major metropolitan areas.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 24.2 per cent from the same period in 2021 to $68.5 billion. Residential unit sales were down 31.8 per cent to 67,547 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 11.3 per cent to $1.01 million.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

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Canadian employment rose by 21,000 (0.1 per cent) to 19.547 million in September, after falling for the prior three months. The Canadian unemployment rate fell by 0.2 to 5.2 per cent, hovering just above all-time lows, as fewer Canadians looked for work in September. Average hourly wages were up 5.2 per cent from this time last year. Wage gains remain below the inflation rate, however, which hit 7 per cent year-over-year in the most-recent data. Total hours worked were up 2.4 per cent year-over-year.

Employment in BC jumped by 1.2 per cent to 2.752 million in September, while Metro Vancouver's employment rose by 0.5 per cent month over month. BC's unemployment rate fell sharply in September to 4.3 per cent, with Metro Vancouver falling to 4.5 per cent. Among the provinces, only Saskatchewan currently has a lower unemployment rate. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-september-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

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The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB.