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The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 2 points to 152.6 in the first quarter of 2025, while the six-month moving average rose to 151.1. Compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index was up 3.3 per cent. 

First Quarter Highlights

• The economic activity index rose in Q1 by 0.5 points. Growth in this index was driven by increased inflation-adjusted retail trade (0.2 per cent) and wholesale trade (0.4 per cent), which offset a small decline in manufacturing sales.

• The overall employment component increased by 1.3 points in the first quarter. Broad-based growth across office employment (0.6 per cent) and manufacturing employment (0.7 per cent) suggests a healthy level of job creation across many sectors to begin the year.

• The financial component of the index increased in the first quarter by 0.1 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices rose by 0.6 per cent, slightly pushing the component up. Additionally, interest rate spreads saw modest decreases from the previous quarter, indicating slightly less perceived short-term risk in the economy (this data reflects pre-tariff conditions).