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To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.  

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell 0.3 points to 152.4 in the second quarter of 2025, while the six-month moving average rose to 152.5. Compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index was up 2.9 per cent. 

Second Quarter Highlights:

• The economic activity index fell in Q2 by 0.9 points. Contraction in this index was driven by lower inflation-adjusted wholesale trade (-5.1 per cent) and manufacturing sales (-4.5 per cent), which offset growth from retail sales (2.0 per cent).

• The overall employment component increased by 0.5 points in the second quarter. Growth in office employment (2.3 per cent) offset a modest fall in manufacturing employment (-0.5 per cent), suggesting a steady level of job creation through the first half of the year.

• The financial component of the index increased in the second quarter by 0.3 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices rose by 6.4 per cent, pushing the component up. Additionally, interest rate spreads remained virtually unchanged from the previous quarter, indicating a similar level of short-term risk in the economy.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.