Canadian real GDP grew 0.2 per cent in November, following three consecutive months of essentially zero growth. The growth was driven by the goods-producing sectors, which rose by 0.6 per cent. Manufacturing jumped 0.9 per cent in November, led by growth in chemical manufacturing as a number of plants resumed production following maintenance. The resilience of the US economy, as well as the end of a strike by Saint Lawrence seaway employees, likely buoyed exports. Construction activity fell by 0.2 per cent overall, while residential construction rose by just 0.3 per cent, slowing from a burst of construction over the summer and fall. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell for the fifth consecutive month, dropping 1.3 per cent as home resales remained soft amid elevated borrowing costs. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.3 per cent in December.

Following a period of essentially zero growth in real GDP from the early spring to late fall, November's GDP read, alongside December's preliminary estimate, offers hope that the Canadian economy can find its footing and resume growth. If the December preliminary estimate is accurate, real GDP will have expanded by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter and by 1.5 per cent in 2023 as a whole. Although growth remains slow, it is encouraging to note that the economy is still growing in contrast to widely held expectations of a recession. Financial markets continue to expect that rate cuts will begin in the spring and accumulate into the summer. The next rate announcement is on next Wednesday, March 6th. Link:

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-november-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

As the chill of winter gradually gives way to the subtle warmth of an approaching spring, I find myself reflecting on the seasons of our lives and the importance of embracing each moment. This season, often overshadowed by the excitement of holidays and the anticipation of warmer days, holds its own quiet beauty.

In the stillness of these shorter days and longer nights, there's a unique opportunity for introspection and growth. It's a time to cozy up with our thoughts, to plan and dream, and to nurture the seeds of ideas that will flourish in the seasons to come.

I encourage you to take this time to reflect on your journey, to appreciate how far you've come, and to set intentions for the days ahead. Like the dormant trees and the quiet earth, we too are preparing for a new burst of life and activity.

As we navigate through this season, let's remind ourselves of the importance of patience, rest, and self-care. Let's embrace the quiet, the stillness, and the beauty of now, knowing that each season brings its own gifts.

Wishing you a peaceful and reflective season.

All the best,

Gino Pezzani

Clarence, well-known in the picturesque town of Roselake for his exceptional matchmaking skills, was affectionately called “Cupid” by the locals. However, the townspeople were unaware of a significant detail: Clarence secretly held a profound love for Eliza, the town's florist. Eliza was known for her delicate touch in creating beautiful arrangements at her store, Bloom's Haven.

As Valentine's Day neared, Clarence noticed a shift in the town's mood. The air, usually abuzz with excitement, felt tinged with a sense of longing. People seemed to crave genuine connections, not just grand romantic gestures.

On the night before the holiday, Clarence was sitting by the river, deep in thought, under the stars. He had an epiphany: True love isn’t about grand gestures; instead, it’s about the genuine moments and sincere emotions shared between people. Taking this to heart, he told everyone in town to do small, kind things for one another on Valentine's Day. The townspeople liked this idea and shared nice notes and stories, which made everyone feel more connected and a part of a real community. 

As the day ended, Clarence, with newfound courage and a single, beautifully imperfect rose in hand, approached Eliza. Standing in the midst of her floral creations, he presented the rose as a symbol of his true, unadorned feelings.

In that moment, as Eliza's smile brightened the dusky shop, Clarence realized his true role as Cupid was to inspire authentic love, starting with his own. The day ended not with the conclusion of a successful match, but with the beginning of a love story rooted in the genuine connection he had always championed.

Feb. 2, Groundhog Day: A popular North American tradition in which a groundhog's behavior is believed to predict the weather.

Feb. 9, National Pizza Day: A day to celebrate one of the most popular and most versatile foods globally, with pizza restaurants hosting various events and promotions. Pick your topping!

Feb. 14, Valentine's Day: A day to celebrate love and romance, commonly marked by exchanging gifts and cards between loved ones.

Feb.19, Family Day: It is not a national statutory holiday, it is only observed in New Brunswick, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Saskatchewan and in British Columbia.

Other provinces have holidays in February on the same day but these holidays aren't called family day. In PEI Islander Day is celebrated on the 3rd Monday in February and in Manitoba the 3rd Monday in February is the Louis Riel Day holiday. In Nova Scotia this day is called Heritage Day.

Feb. 29, Leap Day: Occurring every four years, this day is added to the calendar to keep it aligned with the Earth's revolutions around the sun.

About BCREA’s Housing Monitor Dashboar

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include: 

• Resale Home Market

• Construction

• Rental Market

• Borrowing Costs

• Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the BCREA Housing Forecast Update PDF, click here.

BCREA 2024 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – January, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2024 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) residential sales in BC are forecast to increase 7.8 per cent to 78,775 units this year. In 2025, MLS^® residential sales are forecasted to strengthen further, rising to 86,475 units.

"In 2023, the housing market faced headwinds due to elevated mortgage rates, but the recent decline in fixed mortgage rates and potential Bank of Canada rate cuts present an optimistic outlook for 2024," said Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist. "As we navigate through 2024, we expect a delicate balance between rising sales and normalizing inventories, which should lead to a relatively quiet year for prices."

With substantial progress in bringing inflation back to 2 per cent and a softening in economic growth and employment, there is less necessity for monetary policy to remain stringent. Therefore, we anticipate the Bank of Canada will begin to lower its policy rate this year, leading to higher provincial home sales. The ultimate impact on prices hinges entirely on how inventory evolves this year. While risks to the economy remain, our view is that new listings normalize following a lull in activity last year. That normalization of new listing activity should result in a more balanced market this year with relatively stable pricing.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Maybe you're worried that your professional skills are falling behind. Or perhaps you've wanted to learn woodworking, knitting, or conversational Japanese and have no idea of where to start. Or maybe you're recently retired and considering ways to keep your mind and body active while you make new friends.

The solution can be simple: Take a class. Here are a few ways to return to the classroom, whether virtually or in person.

Check your local craft store. Big chains, such as Michaels or JOANN Fabric, usually have single-session and multisession crafting and sewing classes available. Mom-and-pop quilting and sewing shops might provide advanced instruction or even blocks of unstructured time to socialize while you work on your own project.

Visit your public library. Most public libraries offer activities and classes for people of all ages. Your library card also might provide access to online courses and webinars for everything from business to languages to university-style STEM classes.

Research community colleges. If you want a more-traditional academic experience or want to work on a degree or certificate, then research community colleges near you. Several states have drastically reduced or eliminated community college tuition to make it more accessible. Check with your state's education agency for more information and eligibility requirements.

Go virtual at your own pace. Although such eLearning platforms as Udemy, Skillshare, Coursera, and LinkedIn Learning don't offer accredited degrees or certificates, they can be great and cost-effective ways to pick up new skills at your own pace. Course quality can sometimes vary, so read reviews and research the instructors before you select a class and dive in.

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and that growth will likely remain flat until the second quarter of 2024. Slow economic growth has allowed supply to catch up to demand and the Bank now judges that the economy is operating with moderate excess supply. On inflation, the Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3 per cent in the first half of 2024 before gradually falling back to its 2 per cent target in 2025. However, the Bank cautions that while price pressure is falling across a broad number of CPI components, core inflation is not showing a sustained decline.  As such, the Bank is still concerned about the risk to the outlook from persistent underlying inflation.

Today's interest rate decision and the tenor of the accompanying statement were not surprising given slightly hotter than expected core inflation in December.  However, we expect inflation will resume on its trajectory down to 2 per cent, with some stickiness due to supply side driven shelter costs. Falling inflation, along with weak economic growth and a softening labour market will necessitate rate cuts this year to jumpstart a fledgling economy heading into 2025. We expect the Bank of Canada will lower its overnight rate in June, ultimately lowering to 4 per cent by the end of the year. Financial market expectations for more aggressive rate cuts prompted a steep decline in 5-year bond yields, and therefore 5-year fixed mortgage rates, to start 2024 but yields have since retraced slightly following December's CPI data.  We anticipate that 5-year fixed mortgage rates, currently averaging 5.39 per cent, will eventually fall to 5 per cent by the end of the year and will settle near 4.5 per cent by the end of 2025. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-jjlqosxjet

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

This luscious mousse offers the richness of chocolate and the creaminess of avocados, while being naturally sweetened with monk fruit. It's a delightful, guilt- free dessert that's sure to satisfy your sweet tooth.

What is Monk Fruit?

Monk fruit, also known as Luo Han Guo, is a small melon native to Southeast Asia that is commonly used as a natural sweetener due to its compounds that are 150–200 times sweeter than sugar yet contain no calories.

Ingredients:                                                                           

2 ripe avocados, peeled and pitted

1/4 cup unsweetened cocoa powder

1/4 cup monk fruit sweetener (adjust based on your sweetness preference) 1 tsp pure vanilla extract

A pinch of sea salt

2-3 tbsp almond milk (or any milk of your choice)

In a blender or food processor, combine the avocados, cocoa powder, monk fruit sweetener, vanilla extract and salt. Blend until smooth and creamy. If the mixture is too thick, add almond milk, one tablespoon at a time, to reach your desired consistency.

Chill the mousse in the refrigerator for at least 1 hour before serving.

Garnish with fresh berries, a dollop of whipped cream or a sprinkle of cocoa nibs or shredded coconut for added texture and flavor.

Canadian retail sales fell 0.2 per cent in November to $66.6 billion. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 0.6 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, retail sales decreased 0.2 per cent in November. Retail e-commerce trade fell by 1.5 per cent to $3.9 billion in November, amounting to 5.8 per cent of total retail sales.

Sales in BC rose 0.7 per cent in November. BC retail sales are up 1.4 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 1.2 per cent from last month and 3.3 per cent from November of 2022.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-november-2023-january-19-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Although loving animals can be a lifelong passion, for some people, being a full-time caregiver to one might not be realistic. But you still miss things like the warmth of a cat curled up on your lap or a dog coming for a head pat.

The good news is you can still have them. Animal shelters usually need volunteers, and seniors are answering the call.

From adoption counseling to simply playing with the kittens, seniors can assist in various ways at shelters. Adoption counseling involves guiding potential pet owners through the process, ensuring the right match is made between the animal and their new family. For pet lovers who prefer a more hands-on approach, spending time with the shelter's residents is a rewarding experience.

Playing with kittens, walking dogs and providing much-needed companionship are a few simple ways seniors can brighten the lives of these animals. Their presence brings comfort and joy to the shelter's inhabitants, making their stay a little less lonely. While prior knowledge of animal care is helpful, it is not a requirement.

Shelters often provide training programs for volunteers. The time commitment required varies depending on each individual's availability, but some shelters require a time commitment of around eight hours a week. The flexibility of volunteering allows seniors to contribute at their own pace, ensuring a balance between their personal lives and their dedication to animal welfare.

“Animals are reliable, many full of love, true in their affections, predictable in their actions, grateful and loyal: Difficult standards for people to live up to.”    – Alfred A. Montapert

The rise of the gluten-free diet has many people wondering why this dietary choice has become popular. Here’s a brief exploration of what gluten is, why some people avoid it, and how to determine if it's right for you.

What is gluten?

Gluten, a protein found in wheat, barley, and rye gives bread its elasticity and chewiness. It's also found in various other foods and sometimes in surprising places.

It's important to understand the difference between celiac disease and gluten intolerance. Celiac disease is an autoimmune disorder that causes intestinal damage when gluten is consumed. Gluten intolerance, also known as non-celiac gluten sensitivity, involves discomfort after eating gluten but without the intestinal damage caused by celiac disease.

Why go gluten-free?

A gluten-free diet is essential for individuals with celiac disease. Others might find eliminating gluten reduces digestive discomfort, inflammation, or fatigue. However, it's not a universal health solution and should be considered carefully.

What are the signs of gluten intolerance?

Common signs include bloating, gas, diarrhea, constipation, headaches, fatigue, and skin issues, such as rashes or acne, after consuming gluten-rich foods. If you experience these symptoms regularly, then you might want to explore a gluten-free diet.

Before you eliminate gluten, consider consulting with a healthcare professional, who might recommend an elimination diet, in which gluten is removed from your diet for a specific time frame and then is reintroduced to notice if symptoms reappear.