Canadian employment was largely unchanged from the previous month, growing by 22,000 jobs to 20.536 million in August. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 points to 6.6 per cent, while the employment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.8 per cent. This was the fourth consecutive month of declining employment rates with minimal changes to overall employment. Average hourly wages rose 5 per cent year-over-year to $35.16 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.4 per cent from August of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. fell 0.2 per cent to 2.839 million with a loss of 4,300 jobs in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of provincial job losses. Employment in Metro Vancouver fell 1.7 per cent to 1.584 million in August. The unemployment rate in both B.C. and Vancouver rose by 0.5 points year-over-year to 5.8 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively.

Overall, these employment statistics for August are indicative of a continuing cooling of the labour market. Relatively flat employment and steadily rising unemployment support the notion of another 25-basis point cut from the Bank of Canada in October. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-august-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

September 28 - National Good Neighbor Day. This day promotes community spirit and encourages people to be good neighbors by reaching out and connecting with those living around them.

September 30 - National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

Because most sports rely heavily on physical capabilities, you might not assume that sports could also drive innovation. In practice, however, athletes who are scientists and inventors off the field have made numerous important contributions to sports and to society.

Engineers and sports enthusiasts aren't the only ones who have been cooking up new technologies. A farmer in southern Illinois, Arthur Ehrat, invented the breakaway basketball rim to stop players from destroying backboards when they dunked the ball. The original rim relied on springs from a John Deere tractor.

Another legendary performance booster: Gatorade. Physician Robert Cade noticed that players on the University of Florida Gators football team consistently performed worse during the second half of each game. Dr. Cade theorized — and later proved — that dehydration, not just fatigue, was the problem. Gatorade, named for the legendary team, was invented to replenish salt and sugar levels and quickly rehydrate the thirsty players.

The crossover of diverse expertise from various fields into sports not only enhances athletic performance, but it also fosters significant innovations that benefit broader societal needs.

BCREA 2024 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – August, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2024 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) residential sales in BC are forecast to increase 4.4 per cent to 76,300 units this year. In 2025, MLS^® residential sales are forecasted to strengthen further, rising to 86,475 units.

"The Bank of Canada has shifted to easing policy following aggressive tightening since 2022," said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “This policy shift has positive implications for the BC housing market, and we expect home sales to rebound in the second half of this year with momentum carrying over into 2025. 

A steady supply of new listings and sluggish sales over the first half of the year has resulted in the total inventory of homes for sale rising to its highest level since 2019. Market conditions have been trending near the lower end of what is traditionally defined as a balanced market. As such, average home prices have mostly trended sideways over the past year, with the notable exception of Greater Vancouver where the average price has returned to its 2022 peak.

We anticipate that the average home price in BC will edge up slightly this year, rising 2 per cent to an annual average of $990,500. As home sales pick up over the next year, we expect the market to tighten and for the average price in BC to rise 2.9 per cent to an average of $1.02 million.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

In our digital age, taking breaks from screens is essential for maintaining mental and emotional well-being. Tech-free weekends offer a chance to disconnect from digital noise and reconnect with yourself, loved ones and nature. Here are some engaging activities to inspire your next screen-free weekend.

• Start by immersing yourself in nature with a hike or walk in a nearby park. A study in the Journal of Environmental Psychology states that spending time in natural environments can significantly reduce stress and improve mood.

• Gather family or friends for a fun game night with board games and puzzles. Research from the NCBI highlights that playing board games can enhance memory and thought processes. It’s a great way to bond without the distraction of screens.

• Tap into your creative side with arts and crafts projects. A study in the American Journal of Public Health suggests that creative arts can improve mental health by reducing anxiety and enhancing emotional expression.

• Pack a picnic and head to a local park. Enjoy the simplicity of eating outdoors, playing lawn games and soaking up the sunshine.

Unplugging for a weekend can be refreshing and beneficial for your overall health. Engage in these tech-free activities to create meaningful, offline experiences.

To view the full interactive Commercial Leading Indicator, click here.
To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA CLI fell 0.4 points to 145.9 in the second quarter of 2024, while the six-month moving average also fell to 146.1. The index is unchanged from the same time last year.

Second Quarter Highlights:

• The economic activity index declined in Q2 by 0.57 points. Inflation-adjusted retail trade (-1.6 per cent), and wholesale trade (-2.4 per cent) both fell from the previous quarter, pushing the economic component down in spite of growth in manufacturing sales (+2.1 per cent).

• Office employment (financial, insurance, real estate, and professional services) rose by 3.2 per cent in the second quarter, while manufacturing employment increased by 0.6 per cent. The overall employment component rose by 0.76 points from the previous quarter, contributing positively to the index.

The financial component of the index also declined in the second quarter by 0.46 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices declined by -7.5 per cent, pushing the component down. However, interest rate spreads declined for a second consecutive quarter, indicating less perceived short-term risk in the economy. This offset some of the effects of declining REIT prices on the CLI, but the financial component was still negative on net.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight lending rate this morning by 25 basis points from 4.5 per cent to 4.25 per cent. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that growth in the Canadian economy was slightly stronger than expected in the second quarter but showed signs of softer activity through the summer.  Inflation is evolving largely as expected, and the Bank judges the economy to be in excess supply which should put further downward pressure on price growth.

Focus has shifted from whether the Bank of Canada will lower rates, to how quickly, with some analysts even looking for larger 50bps cuts in the future. The trends to watch over coming months are the state of the Canadian labour market and whether inflation is following the Bank of Canada's forecast. As long as price growth isn't deviating from expectations, and employment is not significantly weaker, we should see continued rate cuts at an orderly 25bps pace until the Bank reaches its neutral range between 2.25 and 3.25 per cent in 2025. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.5 per cent on a year-over-year basis in July, down from a 2.7 per cent increase in June. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose by 0.3 per cent in July. The deceleration in headline CPI was widespread across sectors, primarily driven by declining prices on electricity, passenger vehicles, and travel tours. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5 per cent in July. Gasoline placed further upward pressure on inflation in July, with a year-over-year growth rate of 1.9 per cent compared to 0.4 per cent in June. Downward pressure from electricity and other factors drove shelter costs down from 6.2 per cent in June to 5.7 per cent in July year-over-year. Mortgage interest costs were up 21 per cent and rent was up 8.5 per cent from last July. Finally, durable goods costs fell 1.7 per cent while services costs rose 4.4 per cent year-over-year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.8 per cent year-over-year, up from 2.6 per cent in June. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 2.4 and 2.7 per cent year-over-year in July.

Canada's inflation report for July continued the positive overall trends in June, with headline CPI reaching its lowest level since March 2021. This was achieved in part due to declines in nearly all travel-related services in July year-over-year. However, this is largely a base-year effect, as July 2023 experienced soaring travel-related prices due to it being the first summer without restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Moreover, CPI-median and CPI-trim continue declining towards the mid-point of the Bank of Canada's target range. Taken together, July's inflation report bolsters the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut from the Bank of Canada in September. 

https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-july-2024-august-20th-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian housing starts rose 16 per cent to 279,509 units in July at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 10.4 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were 2 per cent higher from last month at 54,189 units, while multi-family and others rose 20 per cent to 225,321 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts rose 18 per cent from last month to 47,987 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 9 per cent to 4,376 units while multi-family starts rose 21 per cent to 41,414 units. Starts in the province were 1 per cent below the levels from July 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts are up by 69 per cent in Kelowna, and 29 per cent in Abbotsford. Year-to-date starts are down by 18 per cent in Vancouver, 8 per cent in Nanaimo, and by 0.6 per cent in Victoria. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-july-2024

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

September brings a sense of new beginnings. The air cools, leaves hint at autumn and it's back-to-school time. For some people, this season means sending a little one to kindergarten — the tiny backpacks, new crayons and tearful parents at the classroom door. Others face sending a teen to middle or high school,l and balancing newfound independence with parental guidance.

Then there's sending a child to college, perhaps far away. Pride, worry, excitement and sadness mix as parents help settle their child into a dorm room and reflect on the 18 years that brought them to this point. Back-to-school season is a time to celebrate achievements and anticipate what's ahead. Whether you're a parent, student or nostalgic for those days, this season is special.

Appreciate teachers, administrators and everybody who dedicates themselves to education — they shape the future, one student at a time. Whether you’re packing lunches, helping with homework or cheering from afar, embrace this wonderful time.

Sincerely,

Gino Pezzani