A little girl was overheard talking to herself as she marched through the backyard, wearing her baseball cap and toting a ball and bat. "I'm the greatest hitter in the world,” she announced. Then she tossed the ball into the air, swung at it, and missed.

“Strike one!” she yelled. Undaunted, she picked up the ball and said again, “I’m the greatest hitter in the world!” She tossed the ball into the air. When it came down she swung again and missed. “Strike two!” she cried.

The girl then paused a moment to examine her bat and ball carefully, and then rubbed her hands together. She straightened her cap and said once more, “I’m the greatest hitter in the world!” Again she tossed the ball up in the air and swung at it. She missed. “Strike three!”

“Wow!” She exclaimed. “I’m the greatest pitcher in the world!”

Either way – she’s right.

Isn’t perspective a wonderful thing?

anadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 6.7% on a year-over-year basis in March, up from 5.7% in February. This was the largest gain since January 1991 (+6.7%). According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 8.7% year over year, gasoline up 39.8%, durable goods up 7.3%, restaurants up 5.4%, and shelter costs up 6.8%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 5.5% year over year in March. On a monthly basis, prices were up 1.4%, following an increase of 1% in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 6.0% year-over-year. 

With inflation stubbornly high through the first quarter of the year and unemployment in Canada hitting a record low, the Bank of Canada is now planning to bring its policy rate back to a neutral level, between 1.75 and 2.75 per cent, much faster than previously anticipated. We expect the Bank will continue to tighten until there is clear evidence that inflation and inflation expectations are moderating back to normal levels. This more aggressive policy stance has already been priced into 5-year fixed mortgage rates, which are now on a path to surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in a decade.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-march-2022

Are workplace friendships a good thing? A Randstad Work Watch survey of more than 1,000 U.S. workers suggests they are: 67% of employees in the survey said that having friends on the job makes work more enjoyable; 55% said that friendships make their job more satisfying.

Employees do see the potential downside. Forty-four percent said that workplace friendships feed gossip, and 37% worried that they encourage favoritism; 35% said friendships can lead to conflicts of interest. But in the end, only 12% of workers said that making friends at work was a risk.

Canadian housing starts fell by 4.0k (-1.6%) to 246.2k units in March at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were down from March of 2021 (-25.4% y/y). Single-detached housing starts rose 7.1% to 83.9k, while multi-family and others declined 5.6% to 162.3k (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts were down 6.7% in March, falling to 32.6k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 4.7% m/m to 8.1k units while multi-family starts declined 11.7% to 20.6k units. Starts in the province were 54.1% below the levels from March 2021. Starts were down by 2.9k units in Vancouver, 3.6k in Victoria, and 0.4k in Abbotsford, but rose 1.5k in Kelowna from last month. The 6-month moving average trend declined 1.5% to 39.6k in BC in March. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-march-2022

Taking care of your car keeps you and your family safe. The Robotics & Automation website shares these tips for good car maintenance:

• Maintain your tire pressure. Keeping your tires properly inflated can lengthen their life and save you money on gas. Pressure can vary with mileage and temperature, so check it every time you fill up your tank. 

• Check your oil. Oil is essential to your vehicle’s performance, keeping all the parts running smoothly. Make sure your motor has been off for five minutes or so, to allow the oil to settle. Top it off if it’s low, and check with your mechanic to make sure you don’t have a leak.

• Test all lights. Make sure your headlights and taillights are working so you can see on the road, and others can see you!

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – April, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 11,463 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in March 2022, a decrease of 24.1 per cent from a record March 2021. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $1.096 million, a 15.7 per cent increase from $946,813 recorded in March 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $12.6 billion, a 12.1 per cent decline from the same time last year. 

“Home sales in the province continue to moderate from record highs of this time last year,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Given the sharp rise in Canadian mortgage rates and expected tightening from the Bank of Canada, activity will likely slow further in the second half of this year.”
 
Provincial active listings were 12.4 per cent lower than this time last year with the total inventory of homes for sale in the province at under 20,000 units. That level of inventory remains well below the roughly 40,000 listings needed for a balanced market.  
 
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 4.1 per cent to $28.8 billion, compared with the same period in 2021. Residential unit sales were down 20.1 per cent to 26,577 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 20 per cent to $1.086 million. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada is signalling that in response to elevated Canadian inflation, it will begin raising its policy rate or “tightening” monetary policy this year.

Historically, Bank of Canada tightening has led to falling home sales and flattening home prices. 

With markets so out-of-balance, it will take a substantial decline in demand to return active listings to a healthy state. 

Model simulations show that the most likely outcome of this round of Bank of Canada tightening will be home sales falling to near their historical averages and for home price growth to moderate, but because of severely low supply, it is unlikely to result in significant home price declines.

Introduction Later this year, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to embark on its first interest rate tightening cycle since 2018. In this Market Intelligence, we will consider how high interest rates might rise and using both historical data and model simulations, we analyze how BC housing markets may be impacted.

For an analysis of how this rate-tightening cycle may impact the BC housing market, please see the most recent Market Intelligence Report, "Too Tight? The Impact of Bank of Canada Tightening on BC Housing Markets" 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent. This was the first rate increase of more than 0.25 per cent since May 2000. The Bank will also begin so called "quantitative tightening" , meaning it will be shrinking its balance sheet over time, reversing the expansion that occurred in response to the pandemic.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that growth in Canada is strong and the economy is moving into a phase of excess demand with tight labour markets and significant pressure on consumer prices. The Bank expects the Canadian economy will grow 4.25 per cent this year before slowing to 3.25 per cent next year.  On inflation, the Bank anticipates inflation will gradually decline from its current 6 per cent rate to 2.5 per cent by the second half of 2023.  Finally, the Bank signalled that interest rates will need to rise further and that the timing and and pace of future increases will be guided by the Banks ongoing assessment of the economy.

With inflation stubbornly high through the first quarter of the year, exacerbated by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and unemployment in Canada hitting a record low, the Bank has opted for a more aggressive stance.  Clearly the Bank is now planning to bring its policy rate back to a neutral level, between 1.75 and 2.75 per cent, much faster than previously anticipated. We expect the Bank will continue to tighten until there is clear evidence that inflation and inflation expectations are moderating back to normal levels. This more aggressive policy stance has already been priced into 5-year fixed mortgage rates, which are now on a path to surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in a decade.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-yjs23j10gc

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.