Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from 4 per cent in August. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 3.7 per cent year-over-year in September. Shelter costs were up 6 per cent year over year, the same increase as August, driven by mortgage interest costs (up 31 per cent from last year) along with rents (up 7 per cent). Grocery prices were up 5.8 per cent year over year in September, down from 6.9 per cent in August and 8.5 per cent in July. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.2 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

Price appreciation took a breather last month, bucking expectations and slowing in September. While shelter inflation continued to show high price growth, food inflation has softened significantly since the start of the year, falling by nearly half from over 10 per cent in January. While still stubbornly high, the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, moderated in September. Amid weakening labour markets and flat GDP growth, this unexpectedly cool inflation report offers hope that the Bank of Canada may not need to tighten as much as expected, and bond yields fell following the release. Markets now put the majority odds on the bank holding rates steady for the remainder of the year. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-september-2023

Vancouver, BC – October, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,531 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in September 2023, an increase of 10.4 per cent from September 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $966,530 up 4.8 per cent compared to September 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $5.3 billion, representing a 15.7 per cent increase from the same time last year.

“Home sales in BC have clearly been impacted by the Bank of Canada's recent tightening of interest rates, along with the resulting surge in mortgage rates,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Home sales are once again trending at below average levels as potential buyers struggle with a high cost of borrowing.”

Active listings in the province were up slightly month-over-month at just over 33,000 total listings and were 8.1 per cent higher year-over-year.

Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 15 per cent to $57.9 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 11.5 per cent to 59,570 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was down 4 per cent to $972,049.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

1 medium-sized butternut squash, peeled, seeded, and cubed

1 onion, chopped

2 cloves of garlic, minced

2 carrots, peeled and chopped

2 celery stalks, chopped

4 cups vegetable broth

1 teaspoon dried thyme

1/2 teaspoon ground cinnamon

Salt and pepper to taste

2 tablespoons olive oil

Optional toppings: roasted pumpkin seeds, a drizzle of cream, or fresh herbs.

Use an immersion blender or transfer the soup to a blender in batches, and blend until smooth and creamy.

Return the soup to the pot and reheat gently, if needed. Adjust the seasoning to taste. Serve the butternut squash soup hot, garnished with the optional toppings.

Enjoy this delicious and warming butternut squash soup during the cozy October weather!

Canadian employment rose by 64,000 (0.3 per cent) in September. The Canadian unemployment rate remained flat at 5.5 per cent, now unchanged for three consecutive months. Average hourly wages rose 5 per cent year-over-year to $34.01 in September, while total hours worked were up 2.6 per cent from September of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.9 per cent to 2.81 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 2 per cent to 1.61 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5.4 per cent in BC, up from 5.2 per cent in August, while remaining unchanged at 5.8 per cent in Metro Vancouver. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-september-2023-october-6th-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Regular exercise can enhance cardiovascular health, even without significant weight loss. Harvard and Brigham and Women's Hospital studies found up to a 41% reduction in cardiovascular risk from moderate exercise.

This benefit isn't solely attributed to weight changes; only 10% was due to body mass index shifts. Blood biomarkers, blood pressure, and cholesterol improvements accounted for the majority of the risk reduction.

Notably, even light activity that burns 200–599 calories weekly decreased cardiovascular risk by 27%. The study shows that the heart benefits from exercise, which extend beyond the numbers on the scale.

It's great to write to you again. Every October, I'm immediately wrapped up in that cozy autumn vibe - the early sunsets, and the buzz of upcoming holidays. I can practically taste the Thanksgiving turkey!

I love this time of year because it’s the start of what I like to call the “slow, cooler days,” with the changing of the leaves and, for some of us, the whispers of snow. It’s the time when the environment gets rougher and life gets just a smidge more simple. It’s the time for family, close friends, quality time, and hearty food.

Embrace “the slow,” because we know it moves quicker than we think it will. Every year seems to get faster and faster, and this precious time of stillness is an opportunity to lean in, slow down, and just be.

Enjoy the start of the holiday season and enjoy the company of friends and family.

Sincerely,

Gino Pezzani

Your Real Estate Consultant 

Canadian real GDP was largely unchanged from the prior month in July, following a 0.2 per cent decrease in June. A decline in manufacturing activity (-1.5 per cent) pulled GDP downwards with lower inventory formation and the BC port strike as the major contributors. Meanwhile, as wildfires retreated in Eastern Canada, the mining and quarrying sector jumped 4.2 per cent. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell 1.3 per cent, declining for the first time in 6 months. Overall, Canadian real GDP is now 3.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy edged up 0.1 per cent in August. 

July’s GDP number came in flat as anticipated, and although economic growth appears to be softening amid rising interest rates, the advanced estimate for August remains in weakly positive territory. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 5 per cent in September, but last week’s inflation number was hotter than anticipated, causing financial markets to revise expectations. Markets now anticipate an additional rate hike before the end of the year. With the Canadian economy continuing to avoid recession, inflation at 4 per cent, and an unemployment rate still at a rather robust 5.5 per cent, an additional rate hike in October seems likely. However, the Bank will be paying close attention to CPI and employment data before the announcement on the 25th. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-july-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include:

Resale Home Market

Construction

Rental Market

Borrowing Costs

Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

As a man took a leisurely walk through the well-maintained pathways of a renowned wildlife sanctuary, he came across a majestic herd of elephants.

This contained and tourist-friendly location provided a perfect opportunity for visitors to experience these enormous creatures up close. Despite being in such a controlled environment, he couldn't help but wonder at the sight of the elephants being held by nothing more than a tiny rope tied around their front legs.

Curiosity got the better of him, and he approached a nearby trainer to inquire about the peculiar situation. "Why do these massive animals stay put and make no effort to break free?"

To view the September 2023 Mortgage Rate Forecast PDF, click here.

Highlights:

1. Bank of Canada tightening sends mortgage rates to 15-year highs

2. Are high rates finally impacting economic growth?

3. How far will fixed mortgage rates fall once the Bank of Canada lowers its policy rate?

Additional economics information is available here on BCREA's website. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in August, up from 3.3 per cent in July. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.1 per cent year-over-year in August, the same rate as July. Shelter costs were up 6 per cent year over year, up from 5.1 per cent in July, driven by mortgage interest costs (up 30.9 per cent from last year) along with rents (up 6.5 per cent). Grocery prices were up 6.9 per cent year over year in August, down from 8.5 per cent in July. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.8 per cent year-over-year.

The annual change in CPI continued rising in August as gasoline base year effects ended (the year-over-year change in gasoline prices was positive for the first time since January). Although food price inflation continued to gradually ease, shelter and rent inflation rates rose from July. Moreover, the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained stubbornly high; all three measures were flat or rose in August. With softening labour markets and a flat preliminary July GDP estimate following a small contraction in June, the Bank of Canada opted not to raise rates again in September. However, bond yields jumped following the unexpectedly hot August CPI release, suggesting markets think the Bank could change course again. Guiding inflation back down to 2 per cent was sure to be a bumpy ride and the possibility of another rate hike at the next meeting on October 25th or before the end of the year appears to be still on the table. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-august-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.