To view the full interactive BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator, click here.
To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator fell 0.2 points to 145.6 in the third quarter of 2024, while the six-month moving average also fell to 145.7. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, the index was up 0.3 per cent.

Third Quarter Highlights

The economic activity index declined in Q3 by 0.2 points. Contraction in this index was broad-based, with inflation-adjusted retail trade (-0.3 per cent), wholesale trade (-0.7 per cent), and manufacturing sales (-0.3 per cent) falling from the previous quarter.

Office employment (financial, insurance, real estate, and professional services) fell by 3.3 per cent in the third quarter, while manufacturing employment increased by 0.8 per cent. The overall employment component declined by 0.6 points from the previous quarter, contributing negatively to the index.

The financial component of the index increased in the third quarter by 0.7 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices rose by 10.2 per cent, pushing the component up. Conversely, interest rate spreads increased from the previous quarter, indicating more perceived short-term risk in the economy. However, this effect only partially offsets the strong increase in REIT prices, leading to a net positive impact on commercial activity for the overall component.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian real GDP rose by 0.1 per cent in September, after being largely unchanged in August. Goods-producing sectors fell 0.3 per cent, while service-producing industries were up 0.2 per cent. Mining, quarrying and the oil and gas extraction sector (-1.4 per cent) and manufacturing (-0.3 per cent) were the main drivers of downward pressure on growth, and were offset by gains in retail trade (+1 per cent), wholesale trade (+0.9 per cent), and construction (+0.4 per cent). Finally, output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers grew by 3.0 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry also increased by 0.1 per cent in October.

Real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 registered at 1.0 per cent at an annualized rate from the prior quarter. Household spending grew by 0.9 per cent, leading to a 0.2 per cent increase in per capita household expenditures. Growth was also driven by broad-based government spending (+1.1 per cent). Conversely, business investment in machinery fell by 7.8 per cent in the third quarter, strongly attributed to lower spending on aircraft and transportation equipment. Housing investment rose by 0.8 per cent, largely due to higher ownership transfer costs (+4.9 per cent) that arise from resales. However, renovation spending and new construction declined by 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively. Despite higher household consumption, household savings rates reached a 3-year peak at 7.1 per cent, as disposable income grew at nearly double the rate of spending (in nominal terms). On a per capita basis, GDP was down 0.4 per cent in Q3 and marked a sixth consecutive quarterly decline.

Canada saw modest GDP growth in the third quarter, which fell short of the Bank of Canada's most recent quarterly projection of 1.5 per cent growth. The main discrepancies between this report and the Bank's projection are found in lower-than-anticipated business investment and household spending, signalling reluctance among firms and consumers due to more difficult borrowing conditions. In addition, Canadian GDP per capita continues to struggle amidst rapid population growth. This comes in the context of inflation moderating towards the midpoint of its target range, with price appreciation being largely driven by high shelter costs. The labour market remains at cooler levels, with unemployment steadying at around 6.5 per cent. Considering weaker than expected growth, a second consecutive 50-point cut from the Bank seems more likely as they hope to ignite expenditure moving into 2025.

For more information regarding British Columbia's GDP growth, please visit our Nowcast for an estimate of economic activity throughout the province:

For more information, please contact: Gino

Pezzani.https://infogram.com/1p2xk20pe2d70ea0v5l77vq3r2brvzx6565?live

Have you ever noticed that December, so filled with the busiest days in the year, also happens to have the shortest days in the entire year? From summer onward, night slowly creeps up earlier and earlier each evening so that by the time we get to the solstice on roughly December 21, we face the shortest day of the year. 

With those short days come long lists of errands to keep up with the hustle and bustle of the holidays and, if you are like me, you run out of daylight long before everything is completed. However, after the busy days draw to a close, those long nights are ripe for lingering around a table with friends and a second helping of dessert. And those cold winter mornings are the ideal time to put out food for the little birds that never seem to stop fluttering with joy. If you hang up holiday lights this time of year, consider this: you are not just hanging them up for yourself, but for everyone who is driving by on a dark evening and suddenly feels a bit of cheer at the sight of twinkling warmth.

Countless donation drives kick off in December with constant requests for contributions, but this month also makes for the perfect time to place a note of gratitude directly into the hands of someone you genuinely appreciate and tell them, with nothing held back, how they change your life for the better. No matter how much or how little time you have, give of yourself and light up the night. 

The point is that we can choose how to perceive that short day in December just as we choose how to perceive the other 364 days in the year. The darkest day could not exist without the presence of light. Thank you for being a source of light in my life, and for being someone who can light up the night.

I’m sending back love and light with this letter, and hope you find joy in every day this December!

Cheers!

Gino

About BCREA’s Housing Monitor Dashboard

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include:

Resale Home Market

Construction

Rental Market

Borrowing Costs

Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

In our constantly connected world, a full tech detox can feel overwhelming. Instead, try incorporating "micro-detox" moments into your day.  When you step away from your device, these short, intentional breaks help you reconnect with the present.

Whether it’s 10 minutes of screen-free time when drinking your morning coffee or enjoying a brief walk without your phone, these small pauses help reduce stress and boost mindfulness. In time, these micro-detox moments can lead to a more balanced and less-tech-dependent lifestyle.

Consider creating a routine when setting specific times for these breaks, such as during meals or before bed. Use these moments to engage in activities that nurture your well-being, such as deep breathing, stretching or simply observing your surroundings. Even these brief respites can refresh your mind and help you approach your day with greater clarity and focus.

By embracing micro-detox moments, you can cultivate a healthier relationship with technology, one small step at a time.

Preparing your garden properly to withstand winter’s chill can help your garden bounce back during the spring, ensuring healthy plants and a beautiful landscape. Here’s how to get started:

Clean up and remove debris. Clearing your garden of dead plants, fallen leaves, and debris reduces the risk of pests and diseases taking hold during the winter. According to the University of Illinois Extension, removing plant debris prevents the spread of pathogens that can harm your garden during the next growing season.

Mulch your garden beds. Applying a layer of mulch helps insulate the soil and protect plant roots from freezing temperatures. The Royal Horticultural Society recommends using organic materials, such as compost or shredded bark, which also add nutrients to the soil while decomposing during winter.

Protect perennials and shrubs. Perennials and shrubs need extra care to survive winter. The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests cutting back perennials, covering them with mulch, and covering shrubs with a burlap wrap to shield them from harsh winds.

Prune dead or diseased branches. Late fall is an excellent time to prune dead or diseased branches from trees and shrubs. The Arbor Day Foundation advises careful pruning to prevent the spread of disease and to reduce the risk of branches breaking under the weight of snow.

Prepare your soil for spring. Consider adding compost or organic matter to your garden beds during fall, which allows the soil the time to break down the nutrients and make them available for plants during spring. According to the National Gardening Association, enriching the soil during fall can lead to healthier plants and better yields next year.