May Day, May 1: A celebration of spring and workers' rights, observed in many countries worldwide.

National Teachers Day, May 2: A day for honoring teachers and recognizing the lasting contributions they make to our lives.

Cinco de Mayo, May 5: A holiday that celebrates the Mexican army's victory over French forces at the Battle of Puebla in 1862.

Mother's Day, May 14: This is a day to honor mothers and mother figures, and their influence in society.

Memorial Day, May 29: A federal holiday in the United States, observed as a day to honor military personnel who have died in service. It also represents the unofficial start of summer.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – April, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,118 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in March 2023, a decrease of 38.3 per cent from March 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was 961,451 down 11.6 per cent compared to the average price of close to $1.1 million in March 2022, recorded near the market's peak. The total sales dollar volume was $6.8 billion, representing a 45.5 per cent decrease from the same time last year. 

“The BC housing market is currently characterized by slow sales but also still very low levels of listings,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Consequently, even though home sales remain about 20 per cent below normal levels for this time of year, the average home price in BC has now risen two months in a row, reaching its highest level since May 2022 as markets tighten due to a lack of supply.”

Active listings in the province are up 25 per cent compared to this time last year but have fallen for the second straight month in the wake of a modest recovery in home sales and continued weak new listings activity.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 4.5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that demand in Canada still exceeds supply and labour markets remain tight and that first quarter economic growth looks stronger than expected. However, the bank expects consumption growth to slow this year as households renew mortgages at higher rates and growth in exports and investment will decline as the US economy slows substantially in coming months. On inflation, the Bank expects headline CPI inflation to fall to 3 per cent in the middle of this year before declining gradually to 2 per cent by the end of 2024. However, the Bank warned getting inflation back to 2 per cent will be challenging given still high inflation expectations, elevated service sector prices and strong wage growth.

The Bank of Canada has moved to the sidelines while it judges the past year's impact of rate increases on inflation. Several factors point to inflation beginning to normalize this year. Barring a significant shift, gas prices are starting to subtract from year-over-year CPI inflation and raw materials and shipping costs should benefit from a downtrend in global commodity prices and a normalization of supply chains. The open question for the economy remains whether a recession is likely to occur this year. Given the pace and magnitude of tightening by the Bank of Canada, and signals from traditional recession warning tools like the slope of the yield curve, the recession probability remains elevated, particularly given added uncertainty stemming from failures in the US banking sector. However, growth has remained firmer than expected and the economy continues to create jobs at a robust pace.  Still, high interest rates will start to drag on the broader economy this year and slower growth and significant progress on inflation should keep the Bank sidelined with the possibility of a rate cut in early 2024.

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-q5qgobpjy0

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, a decrease from the 5.2 per cent rate in February. This large drop was mostly due to base year effects; the CPI was rising quickly this month last year and fuel prices in particular are substantially down from a year ago. Grocery prices continue to rise quickly, up 9.7 per cent from last year, following seven consecutive months of double-digit increases. Mortgage interest costs were up 26.4 per cent year-over-year, the fastest pace on record, as Canadians renewed or initiated higher-rate mortgages. In contrast, the Homeowner's Replacement Cost, which tracks home prices, continued to slow, increasing 1.7 per cent year-over-year in March, down from 3.3 per cent in February. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 0.1 per cent in March. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.7 per cent year-over-year.

There continue to be encouraging signs that the bout of rapid price appreciation that began in February of last year is waning. Although food prices and mortgage interest costs continue to rise quickly, most other categories in the index are trending back toward normal price trends. Indeed, excluding mortgage costs, the year-over-year change in CPI was just 3.6 per cent. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, each ticked downwards for a fourth month in a row. The three-month annualized change in seasonally-adjusted CPI is now well within the bank's 1-3 per cent target range, hitting 2.1 per cent in March. Still, although year-over-year price appreciation may be moderating, at 4.3 per cent it is still well above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. While the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady at 4.5 per cent for a second consecutive meeting in April, the Bank could change course if inflation does not continue to cool or if the economy dips toward recession. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-march-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian real GDP inched up 0.1 per cent in February, following a 0.6 per cent jump in January. Both goods-producing and services-providing sectors of the economy grew 0.1 per cent. Growth was led by the public sector (+0.2 per cent), professional, scientific and technical services (+0.6 per cent), and construction activity (+0.3 per cent). Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.4 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy declined 0.1 per cent in March, implying an annualized growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.

On the heels of unexpectedly high real GDP growth in January, February's low figure, alongside preliminary data indicating a slight contraction in March, appears more consistent with the Bank of Canada's expectations for slowing economic growth in 2023. Growth was softer than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, supporting the Bank of Canada's 'conditional pause' on further rate hikes, and ignoring January, this slowness appears to be continuing in February and March. Due to the long lag of monetary policy, the effects of last year's tightening are still working their way through the economy, and further slowing in GDP and the labour market is anticipated in the second half of 2023. This slowing of growth is likely good news for inflation, which has been trending close to the bank's 2 per cent target in recent months. The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is on June 7th. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-february-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

To view the BCREA Housing Forecast PDF, click here.

BCREA 2023 Second Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – May, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2023 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service^®(MLS^®) residential sales in BC are forecast to decline 6.6 per cent to 75,530 units this year. In 2024, MLS^® residential sales are forecast to post a strong rebound, rising 19.3 per cent to 90,100 units

“An uptick in home sales to start the spring, despite still high mortgage rates, indicates how much pent-up demand there is in the market waiting to be unlocked,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “With the Bank of Canada on hold and fixed mortgage rates still stubbornly high, home sales are unlikely to fully normalize this year.”
 
While home sales remain close to 25 per cent below normal, the inventory of homes for sale has not accumulated significantly as potential sellers have held off on listing their homes in a down market. While significant uncertainty surrounds the economic outlook, the current market shows no signs of financial vulnerability or highly motivated sellers. As sales recover into a low inventory market, prices will likely begin to rise month-over-month and finish the year higher than at the start. However, on an annual basis, average prices are still expected to be down about 6.1 per cent from a record high in 2022.   

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

The BCREA Housing Monitor Dashboard has been updated with the latest data up to April 25, 2023. Click here to access the latest dashboard.

About BCREA’s Housing Monitor Dashboard

The BCREA Economics team has created the Housing Monitor Dashboard to help REALTORS^® monitor BC’s housing market. This dashboard, which is updated monthly, provides up-to-date data on key variables for public education and use. Focuses include: 

• Resale Home Market
• Construction
• Rental Market
• Borrowing Costs
• Other BCREA Data

In the dashboard, the image and data are available for download under each chart, where possible. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Canadian employment rose slightly to 20.08 million in March, up by 35,000 (0.2 per cent). The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent, hovering just above all-time lows. Employment gains were concentrated in transportation and warehousing (+41,000); business, building and other support services (+31,000); and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+19,000). Average hourly wages were up 5.3 per cent from March of last year, while total hours worked were up 1.6 per cent year-over-year. 

Employment in BC was unchanged in March, along with Metro Vancouver. However, the unemployment rate in BC fell to 4.5 per cent and in Metro Vancouver to 4.8 per cent. This reversed the jump in unemployment last month caused by increased labour force participation. Only Quebec currently has a lower unemployment rate than BC. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-march-2023-april-6th-2023

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, B.C. – April, 2023 – Sales activity and dollar volumes in the Lower Mainland’s commercial real estate market held steady in 2022, despite the challenging headwinds brought about by the highest borrowing costs seen in over ten years.

There were 2,116 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in 2022, a 22.9 per cent decrease from 2,743 sales in 2021, according to data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). It’s an approximately 1.6 per cent decrease from the five-year average for sales (2,082) in the region.

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $12.885 billion in 2022, a 16.5 per cent decrease from $15.424 billion in 2021. This is a six per cent increase from the five-year average for dollar values ($12.153 billion).

“With the Bank of Canada raising the policy rate from 0.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent in a little under one year, the strong sales volumes seen in the Lower Mainland last year really speak to the resilience of our market” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s Director of Economics and Data Analytics, said. “While sales were down in the second half of 2022 relative to the first half, the figures were roughly in line with what we’ve seen historically, when our market wasn’t facing down challenging headwinds from much higher borrowing costs, and the looming possibility of an economic recession.”

2022 activity by category

Land: There were 718 commercial land sales in 2022, which is a 14.4 per cent decrease from the 839 land sales in 2021. The dollar value of land sales was $7.319 billion in 2022, a 5.5 per cent decrease from $7.746 billion in 2021.

Office and Retail: There were 804 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in 2022, which is down 23.3 per cent from the 1,048 sales in 2021. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $2.332 billion in 2022, a 26 per cent decrease from $3.153 billion in 2021.

Industrial: There were 500 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2022, which is a 30 per cent decrease from the 711 sales in 2021. The dollar value of industrial sales was $1.863 billion in 2022, a 23.9 per cent decrease from $2.447 billion in 2021.

Multi-Family: There were 94 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in 2022, which is down 35.2 per cent from 145 sales in 2021. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $1.371 billion in 2022, a 34.1 per cent decrease from $2.079 billion in 2021.

As I reflect on the past year, I realize that my perspective has shifted. In April 2022, I wrote to you about the concept of rebirth, feeling that it was time for something new. But now, as spring blossoms and summer approaches, I have a newfound sense of appreciation for what I have accomplished and overcome.

Instead of rebirth, I offer you another word: remember. Change can bring about uncertainty and regrets, but sometimes we must look back on our experiences and recall the good that came from them in order to find peace. Take some time to acknowledge your mistakes and accept them as part of your journey - they have led you to this very moment in time.

Each thing you do is meaningful, each decision produces a result - these actions make up who you are today and what you will be tomorrow. As you pause for a breath of fresh air amidst the beauty of springtime, remember that your unique imperfections are what make you special - perfectly imperfectly you!

Sincerely,

Gino Pezzani

Oakley, an old oak tree, stood in a field surrounded by young saplings. Although proud of its tall stature and deep roots, Oakley often felt envious of the saplings' youthful beauty.

One day, a strong storm hit the field and the saplings bent and swayed, unable to withstand the winds. Yet Oakley stood tall, deeply rooted in the ground.

The young saplings were in awe of Oakley's strength and wisdom, but also felt a tinge of jealousy for their own vulnerability.

As the years passed, the saplings grew tall and strong, but Oakley remained steadfast.

During the scorching summer days, the young trees would seek refuge under Oakley's shade, grateful for its presence and the lessons it had taught them.

However, Oakley struggled with a newfound sense of purpose and meaning, as it watched the young trees surpass it in height and beauty.

A wise sage visited the field and sat beneath Oakley. The sage listened to Oakley's worries and then said: "Dear Oakley, your beauty lies not in your height or strength but in the lessons you have learned and the wisdom you have gained throughout the years. You have a special role to play in this world, and the young saplings will always seek your guidance and wisdom."

Oakley was filled with a sense of purpose and joy. It realized that growing older was a blessing, not a curse.

With each passing year, it became more beautiful and wiser, and had learned to appreciate the journey of aging. It embraced its role as a mentor and guide for the young saplings and stood tall and proud, basking in the sunshine.