The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75 per cent, its highest level since 2008.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy continues to operate in excess demand and tight labour markets and as a result inflation remains elevated. Sharply higher interest rates are having a significant impact in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing, while softening global demand is weighing on exports. Consequently, the Bank expects economic growth to stall through the end of 2022 and into the first half of 2023, with real GDP growth of just 1 per cent next year. The Bank expects inflation to ease over the next year, falling to 3 per cent in 2023 and returning to the 2 per cent inflation target in 2024. However, given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, the Bank does expect that its policy rate will need to rise further. 

The Bank of Canada has not raised rates this aggressively since the early 1990s and its overnight rate is now well above the Bank's estimate of "neutral", or the level of its policy rate at which inflation should run at 2 per cent.. As such, the Banks is attempting to significantly slow the economy in order to bring inflation back to earth. It takes several quarters for rate increases to impact the broader economy, so the economic impact of the Bank's actions won't be fully felt until 2023. However, with mortgage rates at 5.5 per cent, the impact on the housing market is immediate and severe.  Interestingly, the Bank did note its expectation for the economy to stall  over the next 6 months. If that comes to pass and the economy is soon in a recession, and crucially if progress is made on bringing inflation down, it will be difficult for the Bank to keep its policy rate at current levels for an extended period.

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-5pwhuhdjo9

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Sometimes you might feel as if you’re in a rut. The symptoms are many: procrastination, lack of control, confusion, burnout, perfectionism—the list goes on and on. To pull yourself free, follow this advice from the BusinessMatters.com website:

Create a plan of action. Decide what you need to do and how you’re going to do it. You wouldn’t start your car without knowing where you want to go, would you?Take the time to plan your route so you have a firm idea of what you want to accomplish.
 
Make a list. Write down the most important thing you can do today to further your goals, and then add one or two more things. Doing this helps you focus on priorities and continually move forward. If you achieve your first goal, then move on to the next one. Start each day with a list of things to accomplish so you don’t run out of things to work on. 

Manage your time. You might think you have no time to do something. Is it true? Keep track of what you’re working on, so you have a good idea of how long tasks take. Doing this helps you budget your time and energy more efficiently so you don’t fall into the trap of having too much time or too little time to get things done.

On a dark and stormy night, a man named Sid was hitchhiking on a quiet road. The wind blew loud moans across the countryside, and the trees rustled menacingly in the darkness. Sid was getting nervous, and he breathed a sigh of relief as a car from nowhere came to a gliding stop by the side of the road. Sid jumped into the back seat and started to offer thanks, but he realized that the front seat was empty. Then, to his amazement, the vehicle began to move!

Slowly it crept down the road. Sid’s eyes bulged as it came to a curve, and a floating hand seemed to reach through the window to turn the wheel. For a moment, Sid was paralyzed with terror, convinced that something mysterious and terrible was happening. Finally he gathered his nerve, threw the door open, and jumped from the car. In his fright, he ran without stopping until he made it to the next town.

He found a restaurant and staggered inside for a drink to quench his thirst. About 15 minutes later, two men, wet and cold, entered the establishment. As they were ordering food and drinks, they looked over and saw Sid.

“Hey,” said one of the men to his friend, “isn’t that the idiot who got in your car while we were pushing it?”

Happy Halloween!

Gino Pezzani

Halloween is a holiday that children and their parents enjoy together. But keeping your costumed trick-or-treaters safe while they go door-to-door is paramount. Follow these tips to ensure that your kids will have a Halloween they remember for all the right reasons:

Choose costumes in light or bright colors. Whether you buy a costume or make one, be sure it will be visible after dark. Put some reflective tape on goodie bags to help them show up when your kids walk down the street.

Eat before going out. Serve dinner or a good healthy snack before your kids hit the neighborhood. They’ll be less likely to gorge on the candy they collect if they’re already full.

Plan your route. Determine a clear and safe path through your neighborhood ahead of time. You should accompany small children, of course, and discuss safety with older kids going out as a group. Always carry a flashlight and cell phone.

Inspect candy before eating. Check through treat bags when children return home, and separate out any candy that looks suspicious. Don’t let kids consume too much at one time— ration it out they don’t get sick and unable to have yummy treats for days to come.

Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales increased 0.7 per cent in August to $61.8 billion. Sales rose in 6 of 11 subsectors, but were led by higher sales at food and beverage stores (+2.4 per cent) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+0.6 per cent). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 0.9 per cent in August. In volume terms, sales were up 1.1 per cent. 

In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales rose 2 per cent in August. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 5.9 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales rose 3.3 per cent month-over-month and were up 7.4 per cent year-over-year. 

In August, Canadian e-commerce sales rose 11.1 per cent to $3.5 billion, corresponding to 5.2 per cent of retail sales. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, but is lower than during core months of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. 

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-august-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Here’s a fun, creepy recipe from CountryLiving.com, guaranteed to spook people at your Halloween gathering! Ingredients:

4 (1 liter bottles) cold lemon-lime seltzer

3 tubs lime sherbet

Black food color spray (optional)

Stir 2 liters seltzer and half of the sherbet in a punch bowl until blended. Float scoops of the remaining sherbet on top of punch. Pour remaining seltzer over scoops. (It will create a foamy top.) Lightly spray foam with black food color, if desired.

Be sure to use a clear punch bowl to reveal the ghoulish beverage.

Canadian housing starts rose by 29.2k (10.8 per cent) to 299.6k units in September at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were up from September of 2021 (19.3 per cent). Single-detached housing starts fell 1 per cent to 76.5k, while multi-family and others rose 16 per cent to 223.1k (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts increased by 10.9 per cent in September, rising to 54.3k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 18 per cent m/m to 8k units while multi-family starts rose 10 per cent to 42.1k units. Starts in the province were 50 per cent above the levels from September 2021. Starts were up by 8.8k in Vancouver and 1.3k in Abbotsford, but were down by 4.5k in Kelowna and 1.2k in Victoria. The 6-month moving average trend rose 7.7 per cent to 50.5k in BC in September. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-september-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

Vancouver, B.C. – September 15, 2022 – Activity in the Lower Mainland’s commercial real estate market edged down in the second quarter (Q2) of 2022 from the brisker pace experienced at the start of the year.

There were 485 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, a 34.3 per cent decrease from the 738 sales in Q2 2021, according to data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $3.265 billion in Q2 2022, a 12.2 per cent decrease from $3.719 billion in Q2 2021.

"With inflationary pressures driving interest rates and borrowing costs higher, commercial activity across most market segments has slowed since the start of the year,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics. “Land deals remain elevated relative to the last few years, which is unsurprising given the robust demand for new housing supply in the Lower Mainland.”

Q2 2022 activity by category

Land: There were 221 commercial land sales in Q2 2022, which is a 9.1 per cent decrease from the 243 land sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of land sales was $1.670 billion in Q2 2022, a 9.9 per cent decrease from $1.854 billion in Q2 2021.

Office and Retail: There were 143 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, which is down 48.9 per cent from the 280 sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $649 million in Q2 2022, a 25.4 per cent decrease from $870 million in Q2 2021.

Industrial: There were 93 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, which is a 49.2 per cent decrease from the 183 sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of industrial sales was $542 million in Q2 2022, a 12 per cent increase from $484 million in Q2 2021.

Multi-Family: There were 28 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q2 2022, which is down 12.5 per cent from 32 sales in Q2 2021. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $404 million in Q2 2022, a 20.9 per cent decrease from $511 million in Q2 2021.

Creative ideas don’t come from nowhere. You need to actively seek them out; don't wait for some muse to strike you with inspiration. Here are a few tips for sparking your imagination when you need to solve a problem or develop something new:

Think when you’re tired. When you’re tired, your inhibitions and inner censor aren’t as powerful, and you might generate something unexpected. Instead of tackling problems first thing in the morning when you’re fresh, let your mind roam later in the day when you’re feeling fatigued.

Exercise. In addition to contributing to your physical well-being, exercise can stimulate your creativity by helping your mental health. In experiments, participants who work out to exercise videos tend to come up with more ideas and solutions to problems than counterparts who merely watch the same videos.

Have a little noise. While silence is best for detail-oriented tasks, ambient noise, such as music or the bustling of a coffee shop, has been shown to enhance creative thought. Don’t play loud heavy metal music or work next to a construction site, but set up an environment where some quiet activity around you will spark your mental muscles.

“Take your vitamins!” Your parents probably told you this, and although mother knows best, doctors also know a few things about what your body needs. Their research indicates that too much of a good thing can have negative effects on your health. Check with your physician if you take any of these common vitamin supplements:

Vitamin A. In the proper amounts, vitamin A is essential to reproductive health, good bones, immune functions, and can be beneficial to people suffering from such conditions as celiac disease, pancreatic disorders, and Crohn’s disease. Vitamin A deficiencies, usually caused by malnutrition, can lead to problems in vision, skin disorders, and infections such as the measles, and other health issues. But such deficiencies are rare in the U.S. and other developed countries, so there’s probably no need to overdo it.

Vitamin C. In its natural form, vitamin C has been known to boost immune functions, but despite its popularity, no evidence firmly links it to prevention of such ailments like the common cold. It is important to the growth and repair of bodily tissues, and it contains antioxidants that might help fight cancer. Because it’s water-soluble, your body will eliminate any excess vitamin C it doesn’t need, but too much of it can cause stomach cramps, nausea, and heartburn. Excessive doses could produce kidney stones.

Vitamin E. This essential nutrient is frequently recommended because of its antioxidant qualities, but except in rare cases of vitamin E deficiency, evidence is slim of any clear medical benefits of a supplementary dose. In one study of the effect of this vitamin in fighting prostate cancer, results showed a 17% increase in the rate of cancer among subjects taking higher doses. Your best bet is to focus on naturally occurring sources of vitamin E in cereals, fruits, and green leafy vegetables - such as spinach - meat, and nuts.

“The sack on your back seems heavy,” someone remarked to the second traveler. “What is in it?”

“That’s where I carry my mistakes,” said the second man. “I always keep them on my back.”

The third man was asked what he keeps in his sacks. “I carry my friends' kind deeds in this front sack,” he said. “It looks full. It must be heavy,” said an observer.

“No,” said the third man, “it is big but not heavy. Far from being a burden, it is like the sails of a ship. It helps me move ahead.”

The observer added, “I notice that the sack behind you has a hole in the bottom. It seems empty and of very little use.”

The third man replied, “That’s where I put all the evil I hear from others. It just falls out and is lost, so I have no weight to impede me."

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

Vancouver, BC – October, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,977 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in September 2022, a decrease of 45.8 per cent from September 2021. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $927,119, a 1.7 per cent increase from $912,008 recorded in September 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.6 billion, a 44.9 per cent decline from the same time last year. 

“Mortgage qualifying continues to be a significant hurdle for many potential buyers as interest rates rise,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “In addition, many trends that drove demand in smaller markets, such as remote work and the quest for affordable space, have faded in prominence. As a result, we see a stronger pullback in markets outside of major metropolitan areas.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 24.2 per cent from the same period in 2021 to $68.5 billion. Residential unit sales were down 31.8 per cent to 67,547 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 11.3 per cent to $1.01 million.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.