Canadian employment rose by 21,000 (0.1 per cent) to 19.547 million in September, after falling for the prior three months. The Canadian unemployment rate fell by 0.2 to 5.2 per cent, hovering just above all-time lows, as fewer Canadians looked for work in September. Average hourly wages were up 5.2 per cent from this time last year. Wage gains remain below the inflation rate, however, which hit 7 per cent year-over-year in the most-recent data. Total hours worked were up 2.4 per cent year-over-year.

Employment in BC jumped by 1.2 per cent to 2.752 million in September, while Metro Vancouver's employment rose by 0.5 per cent month over month. BC's unemployment rate fell sharply in September to 4.3 per cent, with Metro Vancouver falling to 4.5 per cent. Among the provinces, only Saskatchewan currently has a lower unemployment rate. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-september-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

On Thanksgiving, our thoughts and memories can become flush with the remembrance of family, friends and food. Year after year, we seem to assemble the same group of family and friends, in a warm home filled with the familiar smell of pecan pie, mashed potatoes, stuffing and other humid aromas.

Somehow, we manage to make the Thanksgiving scene the same. Sometimes the people change - elders pass, and new babies arrive - and sometimes the locations change, but we always re-create the same scene. You know you will catch a glimpse of someone’s fingers glistening with turkey grease. You know someone will twirl and unfurl the linen tablecloth which only emerges once a year.

Thanksgiving is like a genetic trait, handed down from generation to generation. This year, as you're enjoying the sights, sounds and aromas of Thanksgiving, please know I am deeply thankful for the traditions we continue to share!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Who doesn’t like a cookie every now and then? Cookies have a long history, but the first ones didn’t taste much like the treats we enjoy today. According to some sources, the first cookies were made in Rome around the third century B.C. They were thin, hard, bland, twice-baked wafers, and the Romans ate them by dipping them in wine.

Modern cookies might have originated in Persia during the seventh century, when sugar became more common in that region. They became popular across Europe in the 14th century, enjoyed by royalty and common people. One reason for their appeal was that they traveled well in tins and boxes, making them a reliable source of food on trips.

The word “cookie” comes from the Dutch word “koekje,” meaning “little cake.” Cookies arrived in America in the 17th century, in the form of macaroons, gingerbread cookies, and the “jumble,” - a hard cookie that combined nuts, sweeteners, and water. The cookies we’re most familiar with, made by creaming butter and sugar, became common in the 18th century .

Canadian GDP edged up by 0.1 per cent in July, following a similar increase in June. Growth in goods-producing industries (+0.5 per cent) offset declines in service-producing industries (-0.1 per cent) as GDP grew in 11 of 20 subsectors. Canadian real GDP is roughly 2.3 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was essentially flat in August. GDP from the offices of real estate agents and brokers dropped 3.4% in July, the fifth consecutive decline, as rising interest rates continued to restrain home sales. 

GDP growth in recent months, though still positive, is showing signs of slowing. That slowdown will likely continue as the Bank continues its tightening cycle, particularly in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. As expected, the Bank raised its overnight rate in September to 3.25 per cent and the final destination for the overnight rate may be closer to 4 per cent. However, with the rate now above the bank's estimate of the neutral rate, meaning monetary policy is no longer stimulative, increases in the overnight rate are expected to slow in subsequent announcements. 

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-economic-growth-real-gdp-july-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

World Teachers’ Day, Oct. 5. This day aims to focus on "appreciating, assessing, and improving the educators of the world."

World Smile Day, Oct. 7. World Smile Day celebrates the ever popular yellow smiley face. It also offers us an opportunity to do an act of kindness.

Columbus Day, Oct. 10. This day commemorates the landing of Christopher Columbus in the Americas in 1492.

Indigenous Peoples’ Day, Oct. 10. A holiday that celebrates and honors Native Americans and commemorates their history and culture.

Halloween, Oct. 31. Trick or treat!

To view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF, click here.   

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell to 153 from 155 in the second quarter of 2022, but the six-month moving average hit a record high. Compared to the same time in 2021, the index was down by 1.6 per cent.

It is important to note that while the Canadian economy generally continues recovering strongly, the environment for commercial real estate remains highly abnormal and uncertain. Although the CLI was designed to interpret economic and office employment growth as positive indicators for commercial real estate demand, the recent strong growth of these indicators may not translate as readily into improved conditions in the commercial real estate market relative to the pre-pandemic period.

The CLI fell in the second quarter due to deteriorations in the economic and financial components of the index, while employment contributed somewhat positively.

The economic activity index was driven downwards by inflation-adjusted declines in wholesale trade, retail and manufacturing sales. Rapid appreciation in the consumer price index caused by supply chain obstacles and the war in Ukraine meant that rising nominal values in these economic areas were offset after adjusting for general price growth. The financial component of the index was negative as a result of falling REIT prices.

Although falling spreads between corporate and government costs contributed positively, it was not enough to bump the financial component of the index into positive territory. The index’s employment component was slightly positive, with a rise in office (finance, insurance and real estate) employment offsetting a fall in manufacturing employment.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

During August, home sales continued to decline in BC. Starts rose while new listings declined. Sales fell once again all over the province, with all areas of the province below pre-pandemic levels except for the North. Rental costs in Vancouver and Victoria continue broadly rising and remain elevated relative to most other points since the onset of the pandemic.

Retail sales declined in July on lower gasoline and clothing sales. Restaurant reservations in Vancouver are back to pre-pandemic levels. In BC, Google’s measure of movement trends is currently just 4 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. .

Although aggregate employment has recovered in BC to pre-pandemic levels, the accommodation & food service sector remained about 13 per cent below the pre-pandemic level in August. The labour market has served high-income workers much better than low-income workers. Employment in high-income industries is about 10 per cent above pre-pandemic employment levels, while employment in low-income sectors is about 6 per cent below pre-pandemic employment levels.

Exports, imports, and manufacturing sales all fell in July.

Business confidence retreated in August, likely on continuing fears related to higher inflation expectations and rising interest rates.

The number of US and non-US tourists rose again in July, with both US and non-US tourists reaching the highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

For a more comprehensive overview of BC's economic recovery, click here.

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

What a pleasure it is to write to you again. Every October I am instantly filled with that warm, fall-ish feeling - you know, the promise of early sunsets and holiday gatherings. I can almost smell the Thanksgiving turkey cooking in the oven!

I love this time of year because it’s the start of what I like to call the “slow, cooler days,” with the changing of the leaves and, for some of us, the whispers of snow. It’s the time when the environment gets rougher and life gets just a smidge simpler. It’s the time for family, close friends, quality time, and hearty food.

Embrace “the slow,” because we know it moves quicker than we think it will. Every year seems to get faster and faster, and this precious time of stillness is an opportunity to lean in, slow down, and just be.

Enjoy the start of the holiday season and enjoy the company of friends and family.

Sincerely,

Gino Pezzani

Your Real Estate/Mortgage Consultant For Life

Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales decreased 2.5 per cent in July to $61.3 billion. Sales fell in 9 of 11 subsectors, but were led by higher sales at gasoline stations and clothing or clothing accessories. Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, fell 0.9 per cent in July. In volume terms, sales were down 2 per cent. 

In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales fell 1.5 per cent in July. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 4.2 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales fell 2.2 per cent month-over-month and were up 5.6 per cent year-over-year. 

In July, Canadian e-commerce sales were flat month over month, corresponding to 4.7 per cent of retail sales. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, but is lower than during core months of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. 

Link:  https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-july-2022

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.

No matter how much you enjoy your work, you may wonder what another profession would be like. But you should be careful not to wind up wandering off your desired career path. Before pulling up stakes, be sure you:

Know what you want. Your manager has offered you a promotion. Before you jump at the chance, consider whether the promotion is in line with your long-term career goals. If not, find the courage to be honest with your boss and to act in your own best interest, even if others disapprove or are disappointed.

Listen to your instincts. We all have an inner voice that tries to get our attention when something’s not quite right. The problem is we frequently silence our inner voice by focusing on what we think we should do. Thoughts like, “It’s not what I want, but if I pass up this opportunity, I may not get another,” or “I’m not comfortable here, but I can adapt.” Pay attention to your feelings before making big decisions about your career.

Change your mind when you need to. You’ve lobbied for an opportunity and now it’s yours. Before you act, ask yourself a few questions. Is the timing right? Is the salary adequate? Have your ambitions changed? You’re better off changing your mind than taking a job you don’t really want, perhaps depriving a better-suited person of the opportunity. Make the choice that’s right for you today.

Click here to view the September 2022 Mortgage Rate Forecast. 

For more information, please contact: Gino Pezzani.